Parlay Breakdown
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Daron Cruickshank $1.73
Selection 2: Ross Pearson $1.36
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Price: $2.35 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 16.47 units
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Carla Esparza $1.67
Selection 2: Elias Theodorou $1.33
Selection 3: Johny Hendricks $1.35
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Price: $3.00 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 21 units
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Germaine de Randamie $2.44
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Price: $2.44 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 9.76 units
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Pettis/ Rafael dos Anjos to Win by KO/TKO $2.70
Selection 2: Carla Esparza $1.67
Selection 3: Jared Rosholt $1.42
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Price: $6.41 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 32.05 units
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Nelson/Overeem Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.10
Selection 2: Daron Cruickshank $1.73
Selection 3: Carla Esparza $1.67
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Price: $6.07 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 30.35 units
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Roy Nelson $2.70
Selection 2: Daron Cruickshank $1.73
Selection 3: Johny Hendricks $1.35
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Price: $6.31 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 25.24 units
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Germaine de Randamie $2.44
Selection 2: Pettis/ Rafael dos Anjos to Win by KO/TKO $2.70
Selection 3: Stout/ Pearson Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.63
Selection 4: Lindsey/ Duffy Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.30
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Price: $24.70 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 98.8 units
Larissa Pacheco $1.65 vs Germaine de Randamie $2.44
de Randamie has one really good skill set and one that is a liability. If she can keep this fight standing she should be the vastly superior fighter. Pacheco is a brawler and that has worked against far lesser competition and although GdR has a limited record numerically she has faced quality opposition. GdR is a big Bantamweight and showed decent TDD against another big BW in Nunes. I think she will have success remaining vertical here and exploit the openings that Pacheco offers. There aren’t a tonne of underdogs/ profitable favourites that I have backed on this card, but I think a single bet potentially in the Silver pack is the best option here considering where this fight sits on the card.
4 STARS
Jake Lindsey $4.36 vs Joseph Duffy $1.27
The odds aren’t great on this one and they are getting worse. Lindsey has struggled in his 2 fights to offer anything of consequence and Duffy looks like an even more difficult opponent then his previous 2. Duffy has a sound grappling game and dangerous striking attack. Lindsey’s struggles have come on the mat and although the Irishman will showcase his striking, he will ultimately get the job done on the ground. A bet on Duffy doesn’t offer much, but it will pump up a parlay by a little and the risk is low here. The total is worth considering as well.
4 STARS
Sergio Pettis $1.25 vs Ryan Benoit $4.48
This is Sergio’s return to the Flyweight division and while I think he wins this bout, I am in “wait and see” mode. Benoit is no pushover and will give Sergio a run at least early in the contest. No side bet for me, but I will consider a play on the total.4 STARS
Jared Rosholt $1.42 vs Josh Copeland $2.90
Copeland has to capitalize on the few chances he will have on the feet to get the job done. Rosholt got knocked out by an opponent not known for big power, but keep in mind this is the Heavyweight division. I don’t see Copeland having the skill set to defend the wrestling attack of Rosholt and it is hard to comfortably bank on a fighter with a puncher’s chance of taking home the ‘W’. A parlay leg in the Silver section is probably the best option here.
4 STARS
Daron Cruickshank $1.73 vs Beneil Dariush $2.45
This is probably my favourite side bet of the card. Cruickshank’s striking is vastly superior to anything that Dariush can offer and while he may have tightened up his D, the unique front that Daron offers will be hard for him to deal with. Dariush’s last 2 opponents gassed hard and allowed him to take control and eventually earn the win. His opening round versus Tony Martin wasn’t going his way and had Martin be able to carry his performance through the next couple of rounds he probably gets the W. It was a couple of fights ago, but getting know knocked out by Ramsey Nijem suggests some major holes in his defensive game. I am thinking a single bet here is an option or pairing him up with a lower level favourite will post your return.
4 STARS
Elias Theodorou $1.33 vs Roger Narvaez $3.61
I have been very impressed with what I have seen from Elias so far. Yes he had moments of difficulty in both fights, but his ability to remain calm, defend, and still win tells us more about him then if he had dominated start to finish. Keep in mind here that Narvaez is fighting at home and Brazil isn’t the only place that gives out hometown decisions. I felt Narvaez won his last fight, but it had just as much to do with his opponent’s lack of output then it did with what Roger did. That would be the case with Theodorou who is aggressive and multi-faceted in his attack. Look for him to vary his assault and keep Narvaez backing up. A finish is a possibility. a Gold parlay leg, possibly pairing him up with Cruickshank is my play here.
4 STARS
Sam Stout $3.73 vs Ross Pearson $1.36
I was originally on Stout, I even went as far as picking him and posting the prediction. About 2 minutes later I changed my mind and changed my pick. Honestly, the vast majority of what I looked at favoured Pearson. I would love to see Stout win this fight and while there are avenues for him to do so, Pearson has the greater opportunity to get his hand raised. I look back at Stout’s in ability to change gears against Makdessi when he was getting countered and expect to see something similar here. My biggest concern is that Pearson won’t be as active as he needs to be and will allow Stout to routinely engage first. That frequently makes a fighter look more successful then they actually are. Pearson is the superior striker and will defend the TDAs of Stout when he does try and change gears. Pearson in a Gold parlay makes sense to me.
4 STARS
Chris Cariaso $5.44 vs Henry Cejudo $1.20
Under proper conditions, Cejudo wins this fight. If the cut is difficult, which it has been in almost every single fight where he has attempted it, then he could flame out after a round- maybe less. For that reason, Cejudo is a no play. The total might be worth looking at and I will probably revisit the option of a counter bet on Cariaso after the weigh-ins.
4 STARS
Roy Nelson $2.70 vs Alistair Overeem $1.54
Big Country has made a career out of landing that one big shot that either ends the bout entirely or swings things in his favour. That has been the Achilles heal of Overeem- he has the skill advantage over his opponent and might be well on his way to a win (Bigfoot), but they land something significant and its all down hill from there. So why pick against Roy Nelson? He has a limit window for victory. An 1-8 record in recent bouts lasting longer then the first round is a major red flag. We have seen him struggle against guys that can keep him from hitting that one hitter-quitter- Werdum, Mir, JDS, and Stipe all come to mind. They avoided Nelson’s power using a superior striking arsenal and as the fight drags on Roy becomes less and less of a threat. I expect to see Overeem take a page from Mir’s book and put Nelson on his back to beat him up there. Overeem is far from invulnerable, that is laughable, and if Nelson knocks him out I won’t be the least bit shocked. Using him as a parlay leg is workable, potentially in the Silver pack. The total is also worth a look.
4 STARS
Johny Hendricks $1.35 vs Matt Brown $3.69
Johny has made lifestyle changes to help him stay at 170 pounds. Not ballooning up to 200+ pounds is a good start. He is an elite level talent and will most likely challenge for the belt again in the not too distant future. Matt Brown on the other hand is a fantastic story. He was on the verge of getting cut and his record was drawing close to .500, then something clicked. He started winning fights and gaining momentum to the point that he was 1 win away from a title shot. He ran into Robbie Lawler and was pushed back. That is what this fight comes down to in the end. What makes Brown so good, his pressure and ability to break fighters- isn’t nearly as effective against top level opposition. They can deal with the pressure, they know how to counter the aggression, they can keep calm under fire. I think Hendricks will do just that as he looks to get back in title contention. Many felt he wont the second fight with Lawler and that will keep hi motivated knowing he has beat the current champ and can do it again. Look for more wrestling from Hendricks to help diffuse Brown’s pressure- something similar to his bout with Condit. Hendricks in the Gold pack on a parlay is my play.
4 STARS
Carla Esparza $1.67 vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk $2.43
JJ earn this shot at the title in a hard fought against a fighter that many had ranked above even the new division’s current champ. Unfortunately, I thought she lost. JJ had great moments, with the knockdown at the end of round 1 being one of them. That being said, I didn’t think it was enough to give her the round. With her opponent controlling most of the round and JJ landing something big at the end, I felt that it was best scored 10-10. That so infrequently happens though. Carla Esparza also beat someone that was expected to beat her and she did it in dominant fashion, beating back a young upstart that tore through the TUF tournament like wild fire. I feel that Esparza is a better wrestler then JJ’s last opponent and that will show up. She won’t get tired either which was a partial key to Joanna’s success. If the challenger keeps this fight standing she will showcase her striking and while Esparza is a capable striker, it is not her ideal scenario. At this price I will take the champ who I feel is being underappreciated again, either as part of a parlay leg or pairing her up with just one other fighter in the Gold pack.4 STARS
Anthony Pettis $1.25 vs Rafael dos Anjos $4.58
RDA is a nice follow-up challenger for Pettis and offers him a chance to continue to improve heading to a possible bout with the ‘Eagle’. That is if Pettis still has the gold after this encounter. Pettis impressed me against a very tough challenger in Melendez. I had Gil for the win and he was looking good in round 1 but I got the sense that it was only a matter of time before ‘Showtime’ took over. Any time Melendez game him the slightest amount of space Pettis capitalize and landing something significant. That is a tough thing to deal with as a challenger, knowing one mistake can bring your quest for the title crashing down around you. RDA has improved immensely, but I think Pettis is better where he needs to be. The odds skew RDA’s chance of winning too much as he is more likely to get the W then the line would suggest. As a result I will most likely take a pass on a side bet and look more at the total.
1. Ross Pearson $1.36
2. Elias Theodorou $1.33
3. Joseph Duffy $1.27
4. Anthony Pettis $1.25
5. Johny Hendricks $1.35
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6. Carla Esparza $1.67
7. Daron Cruickshank $1.73
8. Henry Cejudo $1.20
9. Sergio Pettis $1.25
10. Jared Rosholt $1.42
11. Alistair Overeem $1.54
12. Germaine de Randamie $2.44
1. Daron Cruickshank $1.73 // He might not offer the biggest price of previous #1s on this list but he has a superior striking repertoire and the grappling chops to keep his opponent from taking him down. We are getting some solid value here.
2. Carla Esparza $1.67 // Anytime you can get a champion at this type of a price take it. Esparza is proven; she won the Invicta title, beat back 4 of the top fighters in her division to win the TUF tournament, and in the finals she soundly bested an opponent that was dominating the opposition on route to her finals birth. I’ll take her over an opponent still relatively new to top level comp in spite of her last win.
3. Germaine de Randamie $2.44 // Her opponent has a much better record at face value, but GdR has faced better competition in MMA and is a very accomplished kickboxer. I will take the fighter with the superior skill set and value.
4. Anthony Pettis/ Rafael dos Anjos to Win by KO/TKO $2.70 // I just don’t see this fight going the distance and submitting a BJJ Black belt, while not impossible is hard. I think Pettis wins and he catches RDA with something. Solid return.
5. Roy Nelson/Alistair Overeem Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.10 // As I mentioned in the props section this play along with a counter bet on Nelson is probably your best bet consider taking the Over coupled with the #1 value play on this list as one bet and then Nelson as the other. If Nelson wins after hitting the over its all gravy.
Value Bet Breakdown
1. Roy Nelson $2.70 // I expect this line could would up some before bell time so wait if you can. I have already talked about how to bet this fight along with the Over so I won’t go into any more detail.
2. Chris Cariaso $5.44 // The weigh-ins happen a few hours from writing this. If Cejudo makes weight and looks good then I would most likely layoff this play, but if he fails to make weight or looks horribly drawn out but still makes it then consider a small bet here. He will be desperate to get to 125 which he has had a tonne of trouble doing.
3.
4.
5.
Counter Bet Breakdown
bETTING SCENARIOS
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
Early Prelim Upset (EPU)
Opening Prelim Under (OPU)
Final Prelim Over (FPO)
High End Favs (HEF)
Rematch Props
4 STARS
EPU Candidate(s)
1. Larissa Pacheco $1.65 vs Germaine de Randamie $2.44- I am on the underdog here because I feel Pacheco is being overvalued and GdR’s superior striking will carry the day. GdR is returning after a long layoff and has just 7 pro bouts. Pacheco is making only her second UFC appearance and is still relatively inexperienced at this levels- all EPU Red Flags.
2. Jake Lindsey $4.36 vs Joseph Duffy $1.27- Duffy is debuting, but Lindsey has really struggled and appears to be an offering being put up to a new fighter on the rise. I like Duffy to take this and will risk him as a parlay leg, but it would be more then reasonable to avoid betting a side here.
4 STARS
OPU Candidate(s)
1. Larissa Pacheco/ Germaine de Randamie Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.69- A finish is possible here, but I expect GdR to keep this fight vertical and simply out point her opponent on route to a decision.
2. Jake Lindsey/ Joseph Duffy Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.30- Duffy has been a finisher in his career and is capable of executing both on the mat and the feet. Lindsey has been finished in both of his fights. You probably get my line of thought.
OPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Both Fights go Over
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
2
3
11
4 of 7 Events
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Win %
My Picks
5
6
45%
4 STARS
FPO Candidate
1. Sam Stout/ Ross Pearson Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.63- This price is getting a bit of a bump because both guys are coming off knockouts. That being said its not been the norm for Stout who has a good chin and I expect it to hold up while Pearson gets the better of the majority of the action. Play the Over.
Final Prelim
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
30
16
65%
2015
3
3
50%
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Win %
My Picks
3
3
50%
4 STARS
HEF Candidate(s)
1. Larissa Pacheco $1.65 vs Germaine de Randamie $2.44
2. Daron Cruickshank $1.73 vs Beneil Dariush $2.45
3. Carla Esparza $1.67 vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk $2.43
Breakdown: Cruickshank and Esparza are the far more known commodities compared to Pacheco. I think the Brazilian is getting a bit of push becomes her record on the surface looks far more flashy then GdR’s 4-3 mark.
HEFs
W
L
WIN %
2015
11
10
52%
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Win %
My Picks
13
8
62%
4 STARS
Rematch Prop Candidate(s)
1. N/A
2015 RPCs
Outcome
Prop
Win %: 100%
Unders: 0 Overs: 1 Decisions: 1 Submissions: 0 Knockouts: 0
Cerrone vs Henderson 3
Cerrone by Dec.
Cerrone by Decision
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4 STARS
Prop Bets
Larissa Pacheco/ Germaine de Randamie
See Betting Scenarios Section.
Jake Lindsey/ Joseph Duffy
See Betting Scenarios Section.
Sergio Pettis/ Ryan Benoit Total Rounds Under 2.45 $1.93
Pettis has yet to finish an opponent in the UFC. Prior to making the jump he finished 6 opponents- 5 in the first round and 1 before the midway mark of the fight. Returning to Flyweight should help increase the impact of his strikes and make it less likely to get outmuscled on the mat. All 7 of Benoit’s wins have come inside the distance, 6 by knockout and he was tapped late in the middle frame in his only UFC bout. Benoit’s tendency to gas will give Pettis plenty of opportunities to finish. Play the Under.
Sam Stout/ Ross Pearson
See Betting Scenarios Section.
Roy Nelson/Alistair Overeem Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.10
Clearly this play is based on Overeem winning and Nelson enduring a beating for the first half. I am expecting Overeem to take Nelson down and keep him there to take Nelson’s power out of the equation. This should lead the fight into the second round where Nelson has a horrible record. I think the best bet is the Over and Nelson to win, you will most likely win 1 for sure.
Anthony Pettis/ Rafael dos Anjos to Win by KO/TKO $2.70
I considered playing the Under here, but I think the knockout is the better option. It pays more and doesn’t have the time restraints on it. Pettis has been finishing opponents with regularity and while there is a chance he could catch RDA off his back, its not that likely. Instead I look for him to catch him during an exchange, possibly with a head kick.
Originally Posted by mirinquads
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JIBBBY gave Bava 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
Wish the forum God's would reinstate his old arse actually.. 
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