Originally Posted by
over9000bets
OP here, sorry forgot to return sooner, lost my old email/pw.
Anyway, if you're bumping because it's entertaining I'll try to keep the show going.
My fear of losing again kept me from betting on any of the JDS/Miocic fights. Which is obviously another big mistake in gambling, but you know, it still seemed like tons of poor lines at the event.
I would have been on JDS/Reem/Mitrione/Dos Anjos, and gone 4/4. Mitrione was the only one with decent odds though. JDS/Reem are not the hard-to-beat fighters they used to be. Gonzaga's boxing had impressed me in his two previous fights as well. Dos Anjos is a killer but I was mad the line dropped from -190 to -300. The fact Diaz beat Cerrone without issue made this not such an obvious win for dos anjos either.
I ended up putting $100 on palahres who beat fitch, wish I had put more on it. Fitch's main strength in grappling would mean absolutely nothing against Palhares, who has arguably one of the best submission games of all time (at least for leg locks).
So I'm up to $250 now.
I made another slightly foolish play, bet the whole bank roll on a 3 way parlay. I went with Machida/Barao/Jon Jones.
It pays better than 1:1, and I think the odds of any of the fighters losing are much smaller than 33%. Let's not forget the massive home field advantage for barao/machida in Brazil. One of the few times where this is actually a factor. Brazil is by far the roudiest place to fight, especially against national heroes like machida/barao.
I think Cormier is the only one with a chance of winning. Which is fine, but I will bet everything I have on jones at -160. I don't care for jones as a person, but as an athlete he seems unstoppable. He will be the mayweather of UFC. Except mayweather gets -1000 odds. Frankly I'm suprised all Jon Jones lines don't come out at -800 like Rousey's because he has yet to lose (Gustafsson rematch is the only one I would avoid betting).
Preview: Jones vs Cormier:
Cormier has great wrestling, and decent striking, jones has the best wrestling and arguably the best striking in the division. Jones also has a habit of attacking a person's strength just to beat them at their own game and make a point. He did it with machida, shogun, glover, belfort, and rashad. Cormier is getting older and slower. Jones has him crushed in age, and reach, and gas tank. Twelve inch reach advantage. It's like fighting the devil on that old boxing video game. Cormier has wins over some of the legends much like jones, but he hasn't fought a young athlete like Gustafsson for example. Mir/Nelson/Henderson is not enough to convince me he can take on Jones yet. I think Jones wins this one by finish, either strikes or submission. He will take the wrestling to Cormier to embarass him, as that's what he loves doing in the octogon.