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Woodstick Value Plays
I seem to have found a little success betting MMA recently with the strategy of picking my shots in each event a bit more carefully and thoughtfully than I used to. I've noticed that some posters on this forum make gut-shot plays to get as much action per event as possible (a habit I've been a victim). While betting on as many fights as possible per event is a thrill, by increasing the volume of bets in which you haven't done the necessary research for and haven't taken the time to thoroughly think through, you put yourself in danger of increasing the amount of -EV bets placed per event and sacrificing a lot of net value per event, which will hurt anyone in the long run. For me, as much as betting on MMA is exciting (I do it mostly for fun), being successful at it as well makes it that much more worthwhile, which is why I have made it a priority to remain disciplined.
While I may add one or two more plays when it gets closer to fight night and I've done more research, this is the play that I have given plenty of thought and feel very confident in putting my ass (and little rooster) on the line for....
UFC Fight Night 45: Cerrone vs Miller: Play #1
Alex White ITD +105
This is more of a fade of Lucas Martins than it is an endorsement of Alex White. Martins is an aggressive Chute Box fighter who made his UFC debut at lightweight against Edson Barboza. In the first round, Martins rushed in recklessly with his chin exposed and was cracked with a straight left, eventually tapping to strikes. Barboza is obviously an ultra-gifted striker, so losing to him in your UFC debut is nothing to scoff at. However, It is hard to ignore how badly he was outclassed in their stand up exchanges.
It was his second UFC fight against Jeremy Larsen that was particularly disturbing. Keep in mind that Larsen suffered three straight TKO/KO losses before being cut by the UFC. Still, the regional-level caliber fighter Larsen landed some pretty hard shots against Martins throughout the fight and almost finished Martins in a couple instances. Once again, Martins fought recklessly with his chin up and his hands down, fully willing to brawl with Larsen. His ability to eat as many shots as he did and still finish Larsen was admirable, but his striking defense proved to be a huge, obvious hole in his game that could easily be exploited by a UFC caliber fighter. He most recently dropped to 135 to fight Ramiro Hernandez where he once again initiated a brawl, this time knocking down the now 0-2 (in UFC) Hernandez and finishing him with a choke. Martins' bad habit of keeping his chin up and blatantly exposing himself to counters led him to eat some shots, but his aggressiveness and reach advantage bailed him out.
On Wednesday, he will be facing a different animal in Alex White, who has shown promise as a legitimate UFC caliber fighter (unlike Martins' two recent opponents). While Alex White proved to be almost equally as aggressive as Martins in his UFC debut, the former pro boxer White displayed significantly better striking, throwing crisper combinations while mixing in unorthodox spinning strikes and head kicks, never leaving himself as exposed as Martins. Neither fighter has made a secret about their intentions in the octagon, and it will be likely this fight will end before we get a chance to see either attempting a takedown. It is important to note that White will be the first southpaw Martins has faced, and this is the first fight since Barboza where Martins will not have a height or reach advantage. I strongly believe the much more technical White will make quick work of the hyper aggressive Martins who, as usual will leave himself exposed to counters.
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Nice write up and I agree with you Solid Pick 
Originally Posted by marzwoody
hes clearly influenced by the great one though bless him.
