1. #1
    tbird509
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    ive parlayed every bet since superbowl with gsp -470

    if you guys are betting nba,just moneyline parlay everything you can with gsp, so far i basically have 5digits down and the odds are -200...example gsp-470/okc thunder-515 risking 1000 pays 448.25.....diaz has zero chance,all i see is pure domination

  2. #2
    MD
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    Diaz has microscopic chances, but that's still a really bad decision.
    175 pts

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  3. #3
    tbird509
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    last time i checked getting gsp at -200 is as good as it gets,so ill let you know what happens after the fight

  4. #4
    sideloaded
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    you will probably win but why leverage your BR with parlays with a huge correlation?

    That is going to cause some major volatility.

  5. #5
    Beelzebubzy
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    Good bankroll management I hope gsp doesn't get eye poked or break a hand

  6. #6
    sideloaded
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beelzebubzy View Post
    Good bankroll management I hope gsp doesn't get eye poked or break a hand
    I always thought keeping your money in 100 dollar bills in a giant suitcase was the best way to properly utilize it

  7. #7
    tbird509
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    so last night okc moneyline was -515,instead of laying down all that cash,i just parlay it with gsp-470,risk 1000 and receive 500 with gsp win,i do this with anderson silva,jon jones,and gsp goinhg back to 2006,so its basically the only way i bet...i dont bet spreads unless its a dog,otherwise ml ml ml

  8. #8
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbird509 View Post
    last time i checked getting gsp at -200 is as good as it gets,so ill let you know what happens after the fight
    Where did you get GSP at -200?

  9. #9
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Where did you get GSP at -200?
    Re-read what he said, Nunya.

  10. #10
    Vaughany
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    lol troll thread

  11. #11
    tbird509
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Where did you get GSP at -200?
    read above,im parlaying all my ml nba bets with him,doing that so far,all my bets that have won that are still waiting on gsp to cash has me risking my money2/1

  12. #12
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbird509 View Post
    read above,im parlaying all my ml nba bets with him,doing that so far,all my bets that have won that are still waiting on gsp to cash has me risking my money2/1
    Oh, so you won 100% of your other bets?

  13. #13
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiggityDaggityDo View Post
    Re-read what he said, Nunya.
    "Have re-read it, still dont understand how he got GSP at -200"?!

  14. #14
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiggityDaggityDo View Post
    Re-read what he said, Nunya.
    (It's called the socratic method, we're headed somewhere. Shhhh, don't tell anybody.)

  15. #15
    Beelzebubzy
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    Quote Originally Posted by sideloaded View Post
    I always thought keeping your money in 100 dollar bills in a giant suitcase was the best way to properly utilize it
    You can still get eye poked

  16. #16
    tbird509
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    heres exactly what im doing,im taking the heat,okc,spurs,indiana specifically at home,depending on what the moneyline is of their game,mia-14 will be -1500 ml...so when their that much of a fav,ill do 2,3,4 teamers,because im specifically betting on these teams only when their at home,their winning percentage at home for all 4 teams is over 85%,i parlay everything with gsp-470....that how i bring it down to -200... 2/1

  17. #17
    Beelzebubzy
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    A -1200 favorite lost last week. They call him king slo mo

  18. #18
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbird509 View Post
    heres exactly what im doing,im taking the heat,okc,spurs,indiana specifically at home,depending on what the moneyline is of their game,mia-14 will be -1500 ml...so when their that much of a fav,ill do 2,3,4 teamers,because im specifically betting on these teams only when their at home,their winning percentage at home for all 4 teams is over 85%,i parlay everything with gsp-470....that how i bring it down to -200... 2/1
    And what percentage of the times have you won those bets? 100%? Have you ever lost a single one?

  19. #19
    tbird509
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    yes ive lost since the superbowl twice on indiana losing at home to toronto and brooklyn back 2 back....guys im not trying to tell you how to bet,im just giving you another angle and sharing how i do it,so all the smack talk isnt what i was intending on starting....just give it a thought if your betting anything else right now

  20. #20
    tbird509
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beelzebubzy View Post
    A -1200 favorite lost last week. They call him king slo mo
    it wasnt any of the teams i bet on

  21. #21
    Beelzebubzy
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    So to answer nunyas question have you hit 100% of your plays with George's in them?

  22. #22
    NunyaBidness
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    So, we'll take as a given you got GSP at -470. Given that is literally the worst price available we're going to make the assumption that you are not a great line shopper.

    So, let's make the further assumption that your average non-gsp bet is-600, and we'll give you a generous comeback at +484. That makes your average odds of winning at 83.33%

    We'll be generous and assume you're a standard bettor, losing the juice.

    So each bet you have a .8333 chance of winning 1 unit which will then beapplied to GSP at -470, and a .1666 chance of losing 6 units whichare gone forever.

    So,it looks to me like you don't have GSP at -200 or -470, but -548.
    Last edited by NunyaBidness; 02-25-13 at 03:30 PM.

  23. #23
    Vaughany
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    hahahaaa

  24. #24
    Beelzebubzy
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    Awesome and ouch all at once

  25. #25
    sideloaded
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    OP, you're failing to realize those "locks" you are parlaying with george are not in fact "locks"

  26. #26
    tbird509
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    So, we'll take as a given you got GSP at -470. Given that is literally the worst price available we're going to make the assumption that you are not a great line shopper.

    So, let's make the further assumption that your average non-gsp bet is -600, and we'll give you a generous comeback at +484. That makes your average odds of winning at 83.33%

    We'll assume you're a break even bettor.

    So each bet you have a .8333 chance of winning 1 unit which will then be applied to GSP at -470, and a .1666 chance of losing 6 units which are gone forever.

    So, it looks to me like you don't have GSP at -200 or -470, but -548.
    ive got a local and would never want my money tied up over seas,i wager too much..average parlay is 500 and its nothing to add another zero to that when im very confident,take a look at those 4 teams home records since superbowl and you will see i have nothing but facts stated.their is no exageration when i tell what i have risked,its actually around -190

  27. #27
    sideloaded
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbird509 View Post
    heres exactly what im doing,im taking the heat,okc,spurs,indiana specifically at home,depending on what the moneyline is of their game,mia-14 will be -1500 ml...so when their that much of a fav,ill do 2,3,4 teamers,because im specifically betting on these teams only when their at home,their winning percentage at home for all 4 teams is over 85%,i parlay everything with gsp-470....that how i bring it down to -200... 2/1
    there is no way to bring george down to -200. that is not how odds work or parlays.

  28. #28
    NunyaBidness
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    You win.

    Parlays are magic.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Vaughany

  29. #29
    sideloaded
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbird509 View Post
    ive got a local and would never want my money tied up over seas,i wager too much..average parlay is 500 and its nothing to add another zero to that when im very confident,take a look at those 4 teams home records since superbowl and you will see i have nothing but facts stated.their is no exageration when i tell what i have risked,its actually around -190

    Given GSP is a huge star, there is almost no way he is so mispriced that these bets have value.

  30. #30
    tbird509
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    You win.

    Parlays are magic.
    i agree parlays are garbage.....put it this way,if anderson silva,gsp,jon jones are fighting,theirs half of your parlay already won,and the 4 teams i told you about winning percentage at home is above 82% you can pick and choose your spot depending who their playing,so tell me this if you liked gsp to win the fight and miami heat are playing sacramento in mia 2mor,mia will be atleast -1000 and gsp-470 ...no matter what the payout is (167) its worth it to me
    Last edited by tbird509; 02-25-13 at 03:45 PM.

  31. #31
    tbird509
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    their isnt one thing diaz is better than gsp in,so i think the line is right on...diaz will never be a champion in ufc

  32. #32
    sideloaded
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    parlays are not garbage, they just increase volatility

    you are grossly over estimating people winning though.

    Jones has lost in the UFC.

    Penn was a "lock" to most people when he fought edgar the first time

  33. #33
    tbird509
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    bahahaha..jones did lose on a dq back in 09,nobody has lost since(jones,silva,gsp),call it what you want,but i call it money in da bank

  34. #34
    tbird509
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    Quote Originally Posted by sideloaded View Post
    there is no way to bring george down to -200. that is not how odds work or parlays.
    you must have no clue on how moneyline parlays work otherwise you wouldnt have said this

  35. #35
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbird509 View Post
    you must have no clue on how moneyline parlays work otherwise you wouldnt have said this

    (Wish Gabers was here for this. . .)

    Delicious irony.

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