[The HOFF]

Date: Nov 12, 2011
Location: Anaheim, California
Venue: Honda Center
Broadcast: FOX, Facebook and FOX.com

MAIN CARD (FOX)

• Champ Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos (for heavyweight title)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook and FOX.com)

• Clay Guida vs. Ben Henderson
• Pablo Garza vs. Dustin Poirier
• Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto vs. Darren Uyenoyama
• Ricardo Lamas vs. Cub Swanson
• Clay Harvsion vs. DaMarques Johnson
• Robert Peralta vs. Mackens Semerzier
• Paul Bradley vs. Mike Pierce
• Matt Lucas vs. Aaron Rosa
• Alex Caceres vs. Cole Escovedo

[The HOFF]

[FindTheLock]

man I really like both of these guys. I like JDS better so I have to cheer for him, but this is going to be an awesome fight to watch.

[proposition joe]

I'm still loving Bendo at -220. Won't touch the Heavyweight fight though but I'm slightly favoring Cain.

[Vitooch]

Escovedo, Pierce are easy Picks

[proposition joe]

Escovedo, Pierce are easy Picks

I will be betting against one of those two pretty hard. Won't say which one or why yet though.

[Vitooch]

I will be betting against one of those two pretty hard. Won't say which one or why yet though.

Pierce

[Vitooch]

I will be betting against one of those two pretty hard. Won't say which one or why yet though.

Please don't say you're betting on Bruce leeroy for gods sake

[v1y]

Please don't say you're betting on Bruce leeroy for gods sake

Hate to break it to you, but Caceras looked good against Hettes, and anyone who took the juice on Hettes was probably shitting themselves after the first round.

Bradley on the other hand looked like shit against Natal, whereas Pierce has looked fantastic in all of his UFC fights.

No brainer, and I'd easily take Caceras around +250 here, although I expect him to close closer to +130.

[Vitooch]

Haha you guys are convincing me. Well I'm certainly sticking by my assertion that Pierce will tool Bradley. Bradley looked pretty terrible in his last fight and pierce is a very solid WW.

[Vitooch]

I would have a tough time putting my money on a Bruce Leroy, who is certainly talented and has legitimate potential but doesn't really have a knack for winning or finishing fights. Yes, he looked good against Hettes but was unable to mount anything offensive where I thought he had a legitimate chance of winning. He has solid tdd, submission defense, a good chin but needs to develop a more offensive game

[Vaughany]

I think Escovedo's experience will be too much for Leroy

[v1y]

The pick is never Caceras, but it's a winnable fight for him. To say Escovedo is a lock is ridiculous when he's probably the inferior striker, and doesn't have great wrestling.

[proposition joe]

Hate to break it to you, but Caceras looked good against Hettes, and anyone who took the juice on Hettes was probably shitting themselves after the first round.

Bradley on the other hand looked like shit against Natal, whereas Pierce has looked fantastic in all of his UFC fights.

No brainer, and I'd easily take Caceras around +250 here, although I expect him to close closer to +130.

I'm expecting at least +250 but maybe I'm just dreaming.

[Vitooch]

Hate to break it to you, but Caceras looked good against Hettes, and anyone who took the juice on Hettes was probably shitting themselves after the first round.

Bradley on the other hand looked like shit against Natal, whereas Pierce has looked fantastic in all of his UFC fights.

No brainer, and I'd easily take Caceras around +250 here, although I expect him to close closer to +130.

Caceras did look pretty good, but at no point did I think Caceras could mount anything significant enough to actually win the fight, just maybe survive the first or second round.

[Vitooch]

JDS and Cain Velasquez is the best HW matchup in MMA history.

Both guys are extremely well rounded (JDS's grappling is incredibly underrated), and I find it almost impossible to predict a winner.

Fedor/Nog has nothing on this.

[Vaughany]

JDS and Cain Velasquez is the best HW matchup in MMA history.

Both guys are extremely well rounded (JDS's grappling is incredibly underrated), and I find it almost impossible to predict a winner.

Fedor/Nog has nothing on this.

What about Hunt/Rothwell....that was an instant classic!

[Vitooch]

What about Hunt/Rothwell....that was an instant classic!

I think Rothwell is still gassed

[Hannibal]

I need Velasquez to come through big time. Havent been posting here much recently.. just reading after i lost almost my entire bankroll on schaub. Dont know if i've learned my lesson or the 3rd time is gonna be a charm.. my remaining br of $1500 is entirely on Cain, with about $300 of that on cain/bendo.
JDS is tough but he wasnt able to put a lot of guys away. Cain is the best heavyweight i have ever seen, and his skill set is superior to every other champion in the ufc. If i'm gonna chase with an all-in... i think this is the spot. and at -130 i think it looks good.

[FindTheLock]

Cain is good at pretty much everything, but so is JDS. This is a battle between two warriors and I would not feel good going all in on either fighter, but good luck to you man.

[Beelzebubzy]

Bendo, Pierce, Cole Parlay

[sirchadwick1]

Can't see how anyone could go all in against JDS... wow. It's a toss up fight to me and I'll likely put a small play on Junior closer to fight night if his odds get better.

[PunisherIND]

I really like Cain by decision prop around +500. I think Cain will be forced to play it safe with takedowns, and I believe JDS is savvy enough to avoid being finished on the ground.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[bjpenn85]

Me too. i lost about 1500-2000 dollars on shaub. sucked, but i am back on track again. cant stop. cant loose.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I will be betting against one of those two pretty hard. Won't say which one or why yet though.

Hey gentlemen,

I've noticed a lot of people on here are concerned about books looking at the forum and getting good info from cappers to make the lines. I've seen numerous responses in threads that discuss this problem... Terpegk private messaged a few of us about this dilemma and had some good insight.

I know other people have brought it up before, but I'll add to it ........

Let's NOT discuss this event in too much detail until the lines are released. I know its hard because all of us like to give our opinions and make early predictions and breakdowns, but let's keep it quiet on this one!!!

I think the line makers DEFINITELY look at this website, its a gold mine source imo.

And i don't know about everybody else, but I've noticed the lines are getting stronger for the books as of late... They seem to be getting better at making the lines for the most part, especially on solid favorites.

Perhaps I am looking too much into this and taking this site too seriously, but I really do think they examine this website pretty closely and use it when reasoning on their line making.

I know it probably won't happen because a lot of you don't take this all seriously, but from now on we should all try to do our best on keeping our BIG PICKS and breakdowns for fights we like on the 'down low' until AFTER the lines have come out. Even posting potential small 3 fight parlays tells a lot of info to the books, especially if they recognize you as a capper who knows your shit.

Therefore if the lines for those particular fights are out, DISCUSS!

So for UFC on FOX let's start RIGHT NOW by keeping it quiet on most the fights until the rest of the lines are released!!! I know it probably won't happen as this is a free discussion forum, but who knows - it could pay off and be beneficial for many of us.

[proposition joe]

Hey gentlemen,

I've noticed a lot of people on here are concerned about books looking at the forum and getting good info from cappers to make the lines. I've seen numerous responses in threads that discuss this problem... Terpegk private messaged a few of us about this dilemma and had some good insight.

I know other people have brought it up before, but I'll add to it ........

Let's NOT discuss this event in too much detail until the lines are released. I know its hard because all of us like to give our opinions and make early predictions and breakdowns, but let's keep it quiet on this one!!!

I think the line makers DEFINITELY look at this website, its a gold mine source imo.

And i don't know about everybody else, but I've noticed the lines are getting stronger for the books as of late... They seem to be getting better at making the lines for the most part, especially on solid favorites.

Perhaps I am looking too much into this and taking this site too seriously, but I really do think they examine this website pretty closely and use it when reasoning on their line making.

I know it probably won't happen because a lot of you don't take this all seriously, but from now on we should all try to do our best on keeping our BIG PICKS and breakdowns for fights we like on the 'down low' until AFTER the lines have come out. Even posting potential small 3 fight parlays tells a lot of info to the books, especially if they recognize you as a capper who knows your shit.

Therefore if the lines for those particular fights are out, DISCUSS!

So for UFC on FOX let's start RIGHT NOW by keeping it quiet on most the fights until the rest of the lines are released!!! I know it probably won't happen as this is a free discussion forum, but who knows - it could pay off and be beneficial for many of us.

I agree 100%

[TheCalculator]

I agree 1000%.

Hey gentlemen,

I've noticed a lot of people on here are concerned about books looking at the forum and getting good info from cappers to make the lines. I've seen numerous responses in threads that discuss this problem... Terpegk private messaged a few of us about this dilemma and had some good insight.

I know other people have brought it up before, but I'll add to it ........

Let's NOT discuss this event in too much detail until the lines are released. I know its hard because all of us like to give our opinions and make early predictions and breakdowns, but let's keep it quiet on this one!!!

I think the line makers DEFINITELY look at this website, its a gold mine source imo.

And i don't know about everybody else, but I've noticed the lines are getting stronger for the books as of late... They seem to be getting better at making the lines for the most part, especially on solid favorites.

Perhaps I am looking too much into this and taking this site too seriously, but I really do think they examine this website pretty closely and use it when reasoning on their line making.

I know it probably won't happen because a lot of you don't take this all seriously, but from now on we should all try to do our best on keeping our BIG PICKS and breakdowns for fights we like on the 'down low' until AFTER the lines have come out. Even posting potential small 3 fight parlays tells a lot of info to the books, especially if they recognize you as a capper who knows your shit.

Therefore if the lines for those particular fights are out, DISCUSS!

So for UFC on FOX let's start RIGHT NOW by keeping it quiet on most the fights until the rest of the lines are released!!! I know it probably won't happen as this is a free discussion forum, but who knows - it could pay off and be beneficial for many of us.

[omalley21]

I completey agree about not discussing until the odds are out.

I was really hoping that the new exposure on FOX would drive even more square money onto dos santos, the "KO artist" instead of Cain "the wrestler". Fox hasn't done a good enough job hyping this, no casuals even seem to know about this fight. The buzz should be huge considering the circumstance.

Cain should be -300 atleast.. Big play for me. Can dos santos last 5 rounds of vicious gnp? I doubt it. But its possible.. I'll take the straight bet.

[Vaughany]

[Kaladarus]

I don't know about Cain being -300, but I had locked up -200 for a very significant amount last time the fight was scheduled. I don't know how JDS beating Carwin changed the line so significantly.(Especially since many of us predicted JDS getting the win here and were still on Cain) He seems to be climbing up though and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets to -200.

I've locked both ITD and straight bets. If other ITD props interest me when they open I may lock those up also. The straight bet is much bigger for me than ITD. I don't see this going 5 rounds. JDS was exhausted after 2 rounds in the Carwin fight. Carwin's pace isn't even half of what Cain's is. Lesnar was able to finish Carwin because of his cardio. It's hard to see a guy with unlimited energy not being able to finish this fight with 2 extra rounds.

[Condit]

cain is coming off a injury, he could play it a lot more safe and methodical if the speed isnt there.

[Vitooch]

I like Demarques Johnson over Harvison for the right price.

Pierce in a parlay with Bendo maybe?

[TheCalculator]

Since we've been chatting about Cain today -- the line moved another 10.

[cheeese]

Disinformation people. If you really believe that the books are sharper because they are using this forum for a pulse and not because the sport is getting more popular and they have to be sharper then we should at least give it a go. We can think of a code to work into the post so we all know. If anything it would be kinda fun to do some secret agent type stuff.

Having said that Bradley is quite underrated. He had a tough fight against Natal while Pierce got tooled by a mediocre Hendricks. I think Bradley will use his wrestling advantage to keep Pierce down and win an easy decision.