1. #1
    Optional
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    Musings About Long Term Viability of Bitcoin

    Looking at one of the latest blocks processed I noticed that the fees we pay today do not appear sustainable at all.


    Block #450205
    Summary
    Number Of Transactions 2179
    Output Total $ 6,812,210.04
    Estimated Transaction Volume $ 1,053,144.32
    Transaction Fees $ 713.93
    Height 450205 (Main Chain)
    Timestamp 2017-01-27 05:48:48
    Received Time 2017-01-27 05:48:48
    Relayed By BTCC Pool
    Difficulty 392,963,262,344.37
    Bits 402836551
    Size 998.121 KB
    Version 0x20000002
    Nonce 269631250
    Block Reward $ 11,405.50


    On that block miners earned an average of $5.56 per transaction confirmed. (from tx fees and the block reward of new generated coins)

    But users only paid an average of 33 cents per transaction. (which seems kind of high to me as I never pay that much)


    Once the last bitcoin is mined will users be asked to pay 5 bucks plus per send?

    If so, how the hell is that going to be sustainable? Competition will kill it wont it?

  2. #2
    KDOWNS
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    Good question Optional.

    Another question about about that last coin being mined someday. Is it possible for someone to make the decision of raising that number of 21 million coins mined to say 25 million or higher, or is it not possible to mine anymore then the 21 million coins

  3. #3
    raiders72001
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    Interesting question. Halving doubles approximately every 4 years so there's time for changes.

  4. #4
    raiders72001
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    Quote Originally Posted by KDOWNS View Post
    Good question Optional.

    Another question about about that last coin being mined someday. Is it possible for someone to make the decision of raising that number of 21 million coins mined to say 25 million or higher, or is it not possible to mine anymore then the 21 million coins
    Changes can be made and they will have to be made within the next couple of years because of the block size.

  5. #5
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by raiders72001 View Post
    Interesting question. Halving doubles approximately every 4 years so there's time for changes.
    I dunno Raiders.

    If there wasn't an inbuilt way to handle that scenario from the start it seems like the design was never expected to play out to 100% mined.

    I think it must have been considered at least.

  6. #6
    raiders72001
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    I dunno Raiders.

    If there wasn't an inbuilt way to handle that scenario from the start it seems like the design was never expected to play out to 100% mined.

    I think it must have been considered at least.
    He knew from the beginning that changes would have to be made. It seems that halving every 4 years and the last bitcoin to be mined approximately 2140 gave plenty of time.

  7. #7
    Alfa1234
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    It depends Optional, right now the miner costs are skyhigh because they have to invest in new hardware all the time to keep their hashrates high enough and up to date. Once the last blocks are mined, those hashrates won't become more difficult anymore from what I understand, making that cost virtually go away as you'd only need to replace broken equipment and expand as needed.

    As the cost of energy would also have dropped (by then at least), and would over time continue to drop because the amount of energy needed to mine would not climb anymore...I suppose it could be profitable even at today's rates/transaction. Add to that a likely increase in blocksize with much more transactions per block and it should be ok.

  8. #8
    Optional
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    Sounds like you two think hope it will just sort itself out.

    Sounds to me like the system is doomed if there really isnt a plan for this.

    Miners arent going to go from over 5 bucks a tx down to 20 cents no matter how easier it is or if they wont need to buy new stuff.


    Investors really should KNOW the answer to this question unequivocally.

  9. #9
    SteelRain
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    IMO bitcoin will eventually collapse because its very deflationary. Not enough in circulation to meet demand so people will eventually give up on it.

    Deflation is actually more dangerous to a monetary system than inflation.

  10. #10
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Miners arent going to go from over 5 bucks a tx down to 20 cents no matter how easier it is or if they wont need to buy new stuff.
    I strongly disagree. As long as it remains profitable, someone will stay in that business. A lot of new sectors have a period of strong early profits with big margins but the sector doesn't die when that goes away. As long as there is a break even point with small margins left afterwards, the business remains viable.

    Regarding deflation: that's not really the case here as bitcoin is not a currency that sets prices for "real" goods. If the USD deflates, bread, cars etc will get cheaper which is disastrous for the economy. Bitcoins are different because you can pay for a lot of things in bitcoins but the core price is still based on some other currency and the bitcoin price that needs to be paid for goods is calculated on the bitcoin price of that moment. If you want to buy a car in bitcoin, you'd pay the USD (or other currency) value and just pay the amount of bitcoins that corresponds to that value at that particular moment. Deflation of bitcoins is not an issue and I would argue it's probably a good thing because as the bitcoin price climbs, people are more inclined to keep using it because of the positive news.

  11. #11
    raiders72001
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Sounds like you two think hope it will just sort itself out.

    Sounds to me like the system is doomed if there really isnt a plan for this.

    Miners arent going to go from over 5 bucks a tx down to 20 cents no matter how easier it is or if they wont need to buy new stuff.


    Investors really should KNOW the answer to this question unequivocally.
    There is going to be a change. Right now it looks to be either Segwit or Bitcoin Unlimited.

    Crypto-currencies are here to stay whether it's bitcoin or something else.

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