1. 03-20-17 08:15 AM #1
    TechnicalTrader
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    What are the average odds on MLB games going to extra innings?

    I'm working on a simple system but can't find any data regarding o/u 9inning plays. I'm pretty sure it's around -1000 to -1500 but can't seem to get a solid confirmation.

    Anyone?

    Thanks in advance!
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  2. 03-21-17 03:08 PM #2
    William142
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    Quote Originally Posted by TechnicalTrader View Post
    I'm working on a simple system but can't find any data regarding o/u 9inning plays. I'm pretty sure it's around -1000 to -1500 but can't seem to get a solid confirmation.

    Anyone?

    Thanks in advance!
    I don't have a database of this but I have the props cataloged from 5 dimes last year during the world series. My guess is they're using some straight derivative of the total and money line to come up with a probability and then they juice it. I looked at this for hockey once but I never could find an edge.

    Game 1:
    Extra Innings: 580
    No Extra: -1000

    Game 2:
    Extra Innings: 600
    No Extra: -1050

    Game 3:
    Extra Innings: 640
    No Extra: -1150

    Game 4:
    Extra Innings: 580
    No Extra: -1000

    Game 5:
    Extra Innings: 600
    No Extra: -1050

    Game 6:


    Game 7:
    Extra Innings: 550
    No Extra: -925
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  3. 03-22-17 04:08 AM #3
    TechnicalTrader
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    Thanks! In deed, way too much juice! Thank you
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  4. 03-22-17 04:09 PM #4
    William142
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    Yeah, I think for these side bets the idea is to find some factor that may not be baked into the line and the total and then incorporate that into your analysis. Such as if you're evaluating part of a basketball game maybe some team does better in the second half than first. I'm not sure a straight overtime/extra inning bet has something like that to exploit.
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