1. 11-02-16 05:06 PM #1
    The Kraken
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    NO value on the Cubs Tonight

    I hope the Cubs win

    I think the Cubs have a decent shot of winning

    But the value tonight is ALL on CLE, and the under

    This may soon be upgraded to a bread and butter play

    Take it for what its worth
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  2. 11-02-16 05:07 PM #2
    RGG
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    Cleveland the play
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  3. 11-02-16 05:08 PM #3
    The Kraken
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    With that said, Im putting 0.2 units on the Cubs anyways

    This is the most irrational 0.2 units I've ever bet and I don't care
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  4. 11-02-16 05:24 PM #4
    jjgold
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    Cleve arms well rested too in the bullpen
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  5. 11-02-16 05:24 PM #5
    CanuckG
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    Under seems mushed. Everyone is on it.
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  6. 11-02-16 06:24 PM #6
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanuckG View Post
    Under seems mushed. Everyone is on it.
    Either over 6.5 (-110), or Cubs TT over (I like that one better).
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  7. 11-02-16 06:30 PM #7
    lakerboy
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    Too much talk about tribe bullpen
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  8. 11-02-16 06:35 PM #8
    texhooper
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    i'd love to be in kyle hendricks' head.

    imagine the pressure. this guy was not much of shit before this year, and now he's had a career year and to cap it off he's got a game 7 for the cubs on his shoulders. not only will it have more eyeballs on it than maybe any other baseball game ever, but it could make or break his career in many ways. let's face it, you throw a gem to win the cubs a world series then your bottom line is completely different.

    that said, go cubs go.
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  9. 11-02-16 06:43 PM #9
    sportsfan9698
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    Kracken I know how you got your screen name... every time you start talking about "value" and "sharp side" I just start to Kraken up!!
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  10. 11-02-16 06:44 PM #10
    BigDofBA
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    How do you define value?
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  11. 11-02-16 07:39 PM #11
    manny24
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    no BnB upgrade bad form Karken
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  12. 11-02-16 08:15 PM #12
    jjgold
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    Krackles what are they saying now?
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  13. 11-02-16 08:15 PM #13
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post
    How do you define value?
    In this particular instamce, its easy. Theres a ton of square money on the Cubs because rhwy're the Cubs and this is game 7. The books had to adjust further than they normally would to adjust foe this huge volume, creating value in Cleveland.

    I never said I thought Cle was going to win but from an EV perspective, there was value on the Indians.

    This play is now upgraded to bread and butter
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  14. 11-02-16 08:15 PM #14
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Krackles what are they saying now?
    i rang them and they said the game isn't over yet
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  15. 11-02-16 08:18 PM #15
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by sportsfan9698 View Post
    Kracken I know how you got your screen name... every time you start talking about "value" and "sharp side" I just start to Kraken up!!
    At least Sweep is funny sometimes

    You're just the guy that tries too hard
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  16. 11-02-16 09:49 PM #16
    sportsfan9698
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    LMAO Kracles keeps kraken me up with this VALUE crap

    I see 6-3 I see value there lol
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  17. 11-02-16 09:49 PM #17
    Barnes & Whine
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    Seriously why doesn't Lester practice pulling the ball out of his glove, is it that hard????
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  18. 11-02-16 09:49 PM #18
    sportsfan9698
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    I have to be the sharpest square huh?
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  19. 11-02-16 10:02 PM #19
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by sportsfan9698 View Post
    I have to be the sharpest square huh?
    Nah, you're nothing. Picking a winner is easy, just pick a side and about 50% of the time you'll be right. Picking the Cubs wasn't sharp. Playing the side with value was sharp, even if that side lost. But I might as well be talking to my dogs about it, they'd understand about as much as you.
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  20. 11-03-16 12:39 AM #20
    BigDofBA
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    I've never bought into this "value" stuff.

    No disrespect to Kraken but every time I see someone make a "value" play on here it loses. So what if you got the better number or got value if you still lose....am I crazy?
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  21. 11-03-16 12:49 AM #21
    The Kraken
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    Ya, value is not a predictor of winning or losing

    In general, we assume an efficient market. Every now and again, we find outliers in either spread or ml. Ex 15 Books have a line at +\-7, and then you stumble upon your book and they have +\-8.... It doesn't give you any better idea who is going to win, but the +8 has value.

    In regards to moneylines, I got Cleveland at home with their ace at over +120. Lota of guys took +106, +107, so +120's had value. It was probably a 50/50 game as we saw, so there was value IMO

    Oddly enough, Im not trying to pick winners because I don't have a predictive model. But I can find value occasionally, and tonight there was value on Cleveland because the world was on the Cubs, the books had to adjust which created value.

    Now, the books took a bath on this game and thats fine, I bet 1000's of games a year, so 1 game to me means nothing, nor doea it to the books.
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  22. 11-03-16 12:50 AM #22
    Smoke
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    Thinder
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  23. 11-03-16 12:51 AM #23
    The Kraken
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    ass

    Hole
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  24. 11-03-16 02:43 AM #24
    sportsfan9698
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    Gee I don't know... I'm a simple man...

    I see no value in wagering the losing team

    Now please tell us the "sharp" side of the wagers for Thursday - when you are done I will tell you the winners
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  25. 11-03-16 10:40 AM #25
    The Kraken
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    You are a simple man indeed

    Troll elsewhere
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