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My base picks
Alright just wanted to start this for some official tracking outside of my spreadsheet...
Been hot and cold so could be fade or follow material...
Risking unit mark +win on dogs and moneyline on favs. (example dogs+130: 1unit to win 1.3units)(favs-130: 1.3 units to win 1)
8/18/2015
1u plays
Marlins +143
Mariners -133
Reds +113
Rays +107
Red Sox -115
Mets -107
0.5u plays
Mets/O's over 7.5 -103
Nats/Rocks under 11 -143
Tigers +153
Phillies +172
Last edited by mth61; 08-18-15 at 04:48 AM. Reason: added plays
If anyone has any thoughts let me know
If you only like "dogs", which I generally don't, SF looks like a decent play. Lance Lynn got pounded last time out and has lost all 3 against SF. BOL brother. SF + 128.Originally Posted by mth61
I like winners and value lol. I ll take an extra look at SF, thanks!If you only like "dogs", which I generally don't, SF looks like a decent play. Lance Lynn got pounded last time out and has lost all 3 against SF. BOL brother. SF + 128.
Seems like all my lines have moved away from me
Looking good brother!
Thanks brother, I am bumping my tigs play up to a full unit but it lost some value
8/18
Added half unit on...
Tigers 0.5/0.7
Marlins +143 W +1.43
Mariners -133 W +1
Reds +113 L -1
Rays +107 L -1
Red Sox -115 W +1
Mets -107 W +1
0.5u plays
Mets/O's over 7.5 -103 W +0.5
Nats/Rocks under 11 -143 L -0.71
Tigers +153 W +0.76
Phillies +172 L -0.5
Added in Post #7:
Tigers 0.5/0.7 W +0.5
7-4 +2.98
Although it was profitable, if I would taken the suggested bUnit approach it would of been 13 units.... Ill post both tmrw
Last edited by mth61; 08-19-15 at 03:52 AM.
working on a few things this morning...
But a few system plays before capping:
0.6u on MIN +155
1u on TEX -118
0.4u on MIA +131
1.5u on SD -157
0.2u on PIT -140
1.6u on STL -160
1.8u on CLE -143
0.5u on HOU -181
3.0u on NYM +112
0.4u on PHI +188
0.7u on CIN +105
1.7u on CHC -220
Last edited by mth61; 08-19-15 at 08:13 AM.
So system will have its plays but I am going with
1U
Texas -118
NY Mets +112
0.5u
Miami +131
CIN +105
This is it for now, might adjust later... No totals yet
Theres a Noah Syn trend I don't like.... and Minnesota looks like a possible play
Noah Syn trend would've cashed, should've bet opposite way...
0.6u on MIN +155 L -0.6
1u on TEX -118 W +0.4
0.4u on MIA +131 L -0.4
1.5u on SD -157 W +1.5
0.2u on PIT -140 W +0.2
1.6u on STL -160 W +1.6
1.8u on CLE -143 L -2.8
0.5u on HOU -181 W +0.5
3.0u on NYM +112 L -3
0.4u on PHI +188 W +0.7
0.7u on CIN +105 L -0.7
1.7u on CHC -220 L -3.7
System Day: 6-6 -5.01
Last edited by mth61; 08-20-15 at 08:45 AM.
8/18 Plays
1U
Texas -118 W +1
NY Mets +112 L -1
0.5u
Miami +131 L -0.5
CIN +105 L -0.5
8/19: 1-3 -1u
YTD: 8-7 +1.98
System Plays:
0.6u on Pirates -120
0.0u on Dbacks -122
0.9u on Marlins -137
1.3u on Cubs -245
5.4u on Nats -182
1.7u on Indians +156
1.3u on Rangers +104
0.3u on O's -149
2u on Red Sox +108
1.7u on Rays -101
Risking alot on chalk with Cubs and Nats...yikes!
Last edited by mth61; 08-20-15 at 11:17 AM.
YTD: 8-7 +1.98
8/20 Plays
Nats -183 to win 2u
Red Sox risk 1u at +108
Yankees -147 to win 1u
O's -149 to win 0.5u
Tigers TT ov4.5 risking 0.5u at +105
Last edited by mth61; 08-20-15 at 11:17 AM.
8/20 Plays
Nats -183 to win 2u L -3.66
Red Sox risk 1u at +108 W 1.08
Yankees -147 to win 1u L -1.47
O's -149 to win 0.5u L -0.75
Tigers TT ov4.5 risking 0.5u at +105 L -0.5
Rough day as Yankees and Nats fail to show up till the 9th and both fall short. O's get pummeled and Tigers get me by the hook.
YTD: 9-10 -3.22
I had posted the system plays wrong and I wanted to also track online the second system which is a flat 1 unit bet
System Results System 1 System 2 Date bUnit Play Odds Result Risk Sys Flat Sys 8/18/2015 0.4 NYM 104 Win 0.41 1 8/18/2015 2.8 MIA 143 Win 4 1 8/18/2015 3.5 CIN 113 Loss -3.5 -0.88 8/18/2015 0.6 TB 107 Loss -0.6 -0.93 8/18/2015 1.9 WAS -145 Win 1.31 1 8/18/2015 1.7 BOS -115 Win 1.48 1 8/18/2015 1 NYY -161 Win 0.62 1 8/18/2015 3.9 SEA -133 Win 2.93 1 8/18/2015 3.6 LAA -168 Win 2.14 1 8/18/2015 1.4 PHI 166 Loss -1.4 0.6 8/18/2015 1 DET 158 Win 1.58 1 8/18/2015 21.80 8W 3L 8.97 6.79 YTD 8W 3L 8.97 6.79 8/19/2015 0.6 MIN 155 Loss -0.6 -0.64 8/19/2015 1 TEX -118 Win 0.85 1 8/19/2015 0.4 MIA 131 Loss -0.4 -1 8/19/2015 1.5 SD -157 Win 0.95 1 8/19/2015 0.2 PIT -140 Win 0.14 1 8/19/2015 1.6 STL -160 Win 1 1 8/19/2015 1.8 CLE -143 Loss -1.8 -1.43 8/19/2015 0.5 HOU -181 Win -0.5 1 8/19/2015 3 NYM 112 Loss -3 -0.89 8/19/2015 0.4 PHI 188 Win 0.75 1 8/19/2015 0.7 CIN 105 Loss -0.7 -0.95 8/19/2015 1.7 CHC -220 Loss -1.7 -2.2 8/19/2015 13.4 6W6L -5.01 -1.11 YTD 14W 9L 3.96 5.68 8/20/2015 0.5 PIT -122 Win 0.41 1 8/20/2015 0 ARZ -125 Win 0 1 8/20/2015 0.7 MIA -144 Win 0.49 1 8/20/2015 1.3 CHC -245 Win 0.53 1 8/20/2015 5.5 WAS -180 Loss -5.5 -1 8/20/2015 1.7 CLE 153 Win 2.6 1 8/20/2015 1.2 TEX 100 Loss -1.2 -1 8/20/2015 0.2 BAL -150 LOSS -0.2 -1.5 8/20/2015 1.7 BOS -106 Win 1.6 1 8/20/2015 1.2 TB 100 Win 1.2 1 8/20/2015 0.1 LAA -125 LOSS -0.1 -1.25 8/20/2015 14.1 7W 3L -0.17 2.25 YTD 21W 12L 3.79 7.93
First the System with bUnit
Pick Line bUnit ATL +212 1.2 SFG -139 0.9 ---- ---- ---- ARZ -121 2.0 MIA -135 0.3 ---- ---- ---- SD +118 1.2 MIN +159 1.2 CLE +138 1.9 DET -125 1.0 ---- ---- ---- TB -101 1.2 TOR -138 2.2 CHW +112 1.1 LAD +110 1.0
My card today all to win 1u based off of flat betting systems picks
ATL +212
SFG -139
ARZ -121
MIA -135
SD +118
MIN +159
CLE +138
DET -125
TB -101
TOR -138
CHW +112
LAD +110
Last edited by mth61; 08-21-15 at 12:03 PM.
8/21:
System Plays: 8-4
bUnit: +8.43
Flat: +4.02
Overall:
System plays 29-16
bUnit +12.22
Flat +11.95
Now the bUnit system is a little higher but through limited testing I definitely have enjoyed the stability of the flat betting system. Posting todays plays shortly.
Last edited by mth61; 08-22-15 at 08:46 AM.
YTD: 29-16
bUnit System: +12.22
Flat System: +11.95
Plays today
Pick Line bUnit PIT -175 0.3 ATL +208 1.8 WAS -157 0.2 ARZ +109 2.1 MIA -135 0.3 NYM -113 0.8 ---- ---- ---- CLE +124 2.4 DET +106 2.0 MIN +152 2.2 BOS +131 1.7 OAK -105 3.0 TOR -105 2.0 CWS +103 0.7 LAD -125 0.5
Obviously like previously stated I play them all to win 1u on flat betting but I also track the bUnit.. LETS GOOOO
Last edited by mth61; 08-22-15 at 10:46 AM.
fixing, apoligies
I play these all at line opening and do not play off of deceiving line movement. I will play these plays no matter where the lines go. Only thing that could change them would be a major lineup change or obviously a pitching change
Go .500 and get a few cents from the booksYTD: 29-16
bUnit System: +12.22
Flat System: +11.95
Plays today
Pick Line bUnit PIT -175 0.3 W +0.17 ATL +208 1.8 L -1.8 WAS -157 0.2 W +.12 ARZ +109 2.1 W +2.29 MIA -135 0.3 L -0.3 NYM -113 0.8 W +0.71 ---- ---- ---- CLE +124 2.4 L -2.4 DET +106 2.0 L -2.0 MIN +152 2.2 W +3.4 BOS +131 1.7 L -1.7 OAK -105 3.0 L -3.0 TOR -105 2.0 W +1.90 CWS +103 0.7 W +0.72 LAD -125 0.5 L -0.5
Obviously like previously stated I play them all to win 1u on flat betting but I also track the bUnit.. LETS GOOOO
8/22: 7-7
bUnit System: -2.39
Flat System: +0.36
YTD: 36-23
bUnit System: +9.83
Flat System: +12.31
YTD: 36-23
bUnit System: +9.83
Flat System: +12.31
Away Home aPitcher hPitcher Pick Line bUnit ARZ CIN Anderson, C Iglesias, R ---- ---- ---- PHI MIA Nola, A Conley, A (L) MIA -116 0.9 SFG PIT Vogelsong, R Liriano, F (L) PIT -170 1.9 MIL WAS Garza, M Zimmermann, J WAS -155 1.1 ATL CHC Wisler, M Hammel, J ---- ---- ---- STL SD Wacha, M Rea, C STL -136 0.1 NYM COL Verrett, L Hale, D NYM -122 2.9 TEX DET Hamels, C (L) Boyd, M (L) ---- ---- ---- KC BOS Volquez, E Rodriguez, E (L) BOS -105 0.8 MIN BAL Pelfrey, M Gausman, K BAL -161 1.1 TOR LAA Dickey, RA Richards, G LAA -109 2.5 TB OAK Odorizzi, J Gravemen, K ---- ---- ---- CWS SEA Danks, J (L) Walker, T SEA -155 1.3 CLE NYY Bauer, T Sebathia, CC (L) ---- ---- ---- LAD HOU Kershaw, C (L) McCullers, L LAD -174 2.9
As always, I bet listed plays at a flat to win 1u but I track the bUnits as well
In what should of been a 8-2 day for +5.75 units turned into a 5-5 day -1.65 units courtesy of three blown saves with two outs courtesy of the O's, Red Sawx, and Dodgers.... un effin real...
8/23: 5-5
bUnit System: -3.09
Flat System: -1.65
YTD: 41-28
bUnit System: +6.74
Flat System: +10.66
YTD: 41-28
bUnit System: +6.74
Flat System: +10.66
8/24 Card. All to win 1u
Away Home aPitcher hPitcher Pick Line bUnit NYM PHI deGrom, J Morgan, A (L) NYM -202 3.7 COL ATL De La Rosa, J (L) Teheran, J ---- ---- ---- PIT MIA Happ, J (L) Koehler, T ---- ---- ---- STL ARZ Lynn, L Ray, R (L) STL -108 1.1 HOU NYY Feldman, S Eovaldi, N HOU +135 0.4 BAL KC Jimenez, U Medlen, K KC -131 0.8 BOS CHW Kelly, J Samardzija, J BOS +122 0.4 OAK SEA Doubront, F (L) Iwakuma, H SEA -169 0.6 DET CIN Farmer, B Sampson, K DET +115 1.6 CLE CHC Kluber, C Lester, J (L) CLE +125 1.0
8/24: 4-4
bUnit System: +0.35
Flat System: -0.1
YTD: 45-32
bUnit System: +7.09
Flat System: +10.56
YTD: 45-32
bUnit System: +7.09
Flat System: +10.56
8/25 Card. All to win 1u
Away Home aPitcher hPitcher Pick Line bUnit NYM PHI N Syndergaard J Williams NYM -206 0.5 SD WAS J Shields S Strasburg WAS -158 1.0 PIT MIA C Morton B Hand (L) PIT -146 1.3 COL ATL C Bettis M Foltynewicz ATL -103 0.1 LAD CIN A Wood (L) J Lamb (L) CIN +135 0.9 CHC SFG J Arrieta M Cain CHC -138 1.9 HOU NYY D Keuchel (L) I Nova HOU -122 2.0 LAA DET J Weaver A Simon DET +106 0.3 MIN TB E Santana N Karns MIN +149 0.5 TOR TEX M Buehrle (L) D Holland (L) TEX +127 2.5 BOS CHW W Miley (L) J Quintana (L) CHW -118 1.1 BAL KC M Gonzalez D Duffy (L) KC -135 2.7 OAK SEA J Chavez M Montgomery (L) OAK +117 1.7 MIL CLE W Peralta J Tomlin MIL +149 0.6 STL ARZ J Garcia (L) R Ray (L) STL -115 2.0
Last edited by mth61; 08-26-15 at 04:13 AM.
8/24: 8-7
bUnit System: +1.45
Flat System: +1.52
YTD: 53W-39L
bUnit System: +8.54
Flat System: +12.08
YTD: 53W-39L
bUnit System: +8.54
Flat System: +12.08
8/26 Card. All to win 1u
Away Home aPitcher hPitcher Pick Line bUnit NYM PHI B Colon J Eickhoff PHI +153 1.2 PIT MIA J Locke (L) C Narveson (L) MIA +149 1.6 LAD CIN B Anderson (L) D Holmberg (L) LAD -173 2.1 COL ATL Y Flande (L) S Miller ---- ---- ---- STL ARZ J Lackey P Corbin (L) ---- ---- ---- CHC SFG K Hendricks J Peavy SFG -112 0.2 HOU NYY C McHugh M Pineda NYY -127 1.6 OAK SEA C Bassitt F Hernandez SEA -159 3.0 LAA DET H Santiago (L) J Verlander ---- ---- ---- MIN TB T Duffey C Archer TB -192 0.9 TOR TEX D Price (L) C Lewis TOR -175 2.0 BOS CHW R Porcello C Sale (L) CHW -177 1.7 BAL KC W Chen (L) J Cueto ---- ---- ---- SD WAS No pick yet MIL CLE No pick yet
Rough day on the bases as a couple big faves go down in Sale and Sawx. Same goes for Archer and the Rays.
8/26: 4-5
bUnit System: -2.58
Flat System: -2.28
YTD: 57-44
bUnit System: +5.96
Flat System: +9.8
Last edited by mth61; 08-27-15 at 08:11 AM.
YTD: 57W-44L
bUnit System: +5.96
Flat System: +9.8
8/27 Card. All to win 1u
Away Home aPitcher hPitcher Pick Line bUnit LAD CIN Z Grieke A DeSclafani LAD -186 0.5 CHC SFG D Haren M Bumgarner (L) SFG -178 2.5 NYM PHI J Niese (L) A Harang ---- ---- ---- SD WAS A Cashner J Ross SD +157 1.5 PIT MIA G Cole J Nicolino (L) PIT -178 1.1 STL ARZ C Martinez R De La Rosa ARZ +123 1.7 TOR TEX M Estrada Y Gallardo TEX +140 2.3 BAL KC C Tillman Y Venture KC -139 1.4 MIN TB T Milone (L) D Smyly (L) ---- ---- ---- LAA DET M Shoemaker R Wolf (L) DET +100 0.2 SEA CHW R Elias (L) C Rodon (L) CHW -135 0.4
Last edited by mth61; 08-27-15 at 02:44 PM.
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