[posey]

5/23

I have sumed up some stats and thoughts for today's games. Do with them whatever you want. Maybe it helps some guys with capping.

TEX Rangers (N. MartineZ) @ NY Yankees (C. Sabathia)
- Sabathia is only 2-5 this season, losing both home starts, only 3 of 8 starts allowing less than 4 runs, but doing well in his last one and walking not many guys this season; Martinez is 3-0, striking out very few guys, but allowing only 1 HR in 48 IP thusfar and BABIP is not too high
- Yankees have the best bullpen in the AL this season (2.3 WAR fangraphs), but gave up some homeruns lately; Rangers bullpen is the worst bullpen in the AL next to the As, but pitching slightly better lately
- Yankees lineup is scoring 4.5 R/G this season and 4.8 at home, but only 3.1 R/G since 12th May and was scoring 2 runs or less in 7 of last 9; Rangers lineup is doing slightly worse than Yankees lineup overall this season, but is scoring 5.1 R/G since 11th May and doing well vs LHP (113 wRC+)
- Yankees are 9-8 at home, 7-0 in the last 7 against the Rangers with CC (scoring 7.9 R/G on average in those), but the last of those was in April 2012, they lost 8 of the last 9 overall and 4 in a row; Rangers are 19-23 overall, 5-9 against LHP, but 13-10 on the road, on a 3 game win streak and 12-8 since May 2nd

SEA Mariners (J. Paxton) @ Toronto Blue Jays (M. Buehrle)
- Buehrle is 5-3 despite a 5.36 ERA and 1.57 WHIP and his home numbers (3.71 ERA) are far better than his road stats (6.30 ERA) in 2015, but he has bad stats against certain Mariners; Paxton is 2-2 and has much better numbers than Buehrle, he allowed no run in his last 2 starts and has a 1.40 ERA over his last 5 starts
- both bullpens pitched mediocre this season, the Mariners bullpen was slightly better lately, since the Jays pen didn’t give up many walks, but lots of homeruns
- the Jays have the 3rd best offense in the AL to date (wRC+ 108) and the best home offense (wRC+ 123) in the AL, they did okay recently (wRC+ 106) and crush LHP (.316 AVG, .866 OPS, 138 wRC+); the Mariners are above average against LHP (+118 wRC+) this season, but bad on the road (89 wRC+), they scored 21 runs in their last 5 (4 in each of their last 4), but only 7 in their 4 games before (2 runs in 3 of those)
- the Blue Jays are 11-10 at home, 6-3 against LHP and crushed the Mariners with Paxton in Sep 14, but they are 19-25 overall, 3-10 over the last 13, they lost 4 of their last 6 home games and are 9-14 against Seattle since 2012; the Mariners are 19-22 and 8-12 on the road, but are 8-5 since May 8th and 36-28 against LHP since 2014, winning 3 of the last 4 gainst LHP; Blue Jays have won less than expected, Mariners have won more than expected (see RPI stats by ESPN)

NY Mets (M. Harvey) @ PIT Pirates (A. Burnett)
- AJ Burnett has bad career stats against certain Mets, but is pitching very good this year, never allowing more than 2 runs in any of his starts; Matt Harvey did not allow a run in his last two starts
- both bullpens are doing well this season
- Pittsburgh has the better lineup, doing better lately (75 wRC+ in April, 107 wRC+ over the last 14 days); Mets lineup has the worst away production in NL (71 wRC+)
- Pirates are only 2-7 over last 9, but 10-5 against Mets since 2013, the expected win pct is way higher than their actual win pct; Mets are 24-19 overall, but only 7-13 on the road, 11-15 since 24th April and 7-13 against teams with a WP of higher than .400 since 24th April

PHI Phillies (C. Hamels) @ WSH Nationals (S. Strasburg)
- Strasburg has a sky-high ERA this season, but was pitching mostly away from home, is suffering from a very high BABIP and is 9-3 against the Phillies over his career (.218 BAA, .256 OBP, .288 SLG vs current Phillies); Hamels had 3 bad starts this season, but the other 5 were very good and he has strong stats against Nats batters (.211 BAA, .289 OBP, .347 SLG, .636 OPS vs current Nats)
- Nationals have the better bullpen
- Nats also with the much better lineup; Phillies have the 3rd worst away production in NL (wRC+)
- Nats are 13-6 at home in 2015, winning the last 7 home games straight, they are 6-2 against lefties in 2015, are on a 4 game win streak, are 18-4 overall since 28th April and winning 4 of 6 against the Phillies with Hamels since 2014; Phillies are 13-14 against the Nats since 2014, but only 5-10 at Washington, 1-5 in the last 6 against Washington, they are 6-16 on the road this season and their expected win pct is much lower than their actual win pct

HOU Astros (L. McCullers) @ DET Tigers (K. Lobstein)
- McCullers is 0-0 after one start in which he allowed 1 ER in 4.2 IP this season; Lobstein is 3-4 in 7 starts, allowing 9 ER in 9 IP in his last two starts (both at home)
- overall the Tigers bullpen has been doing well (2.75 ERA), especially over the last 7 days (0.82 ERA); the Stros have the 2nd best pen in the AL (2.1 WAR) and it has already 11 wins on its own
- the Astros offense has already 62 home runs in 43 games (26 of them with men on base), but is batting only .228 and collects a ton of strikeouts (24.6 K%), road numbers, numbers vs LHP and numbers over the last 14 days don’t differ much from that; the Tigers have one of the best offensive productions of the AL (113 wRC+, .774 OPS), are good offensively at home (110 wRC+) and against LHP (128 wRC+), they scored 17 runs in their last 3 games
- the Tigers are 26-17 overall and 14-10 at home, 6-3 in their last 9 and won 3 straight, they won 12 of 16 against Houston since the Stros transitioned to the AL in 2013 and they are 18-14 against RHP, winning the last 3 of those straight, the expected win pct is lower than the actual win pct; the Astros are 27-16 and 12-6 on the road, they are 7-3 over the last 10 but lost 3 of the last 5, they are 10-6 against LHP, but lost 4 of the last 6 of those

MIN Twins (T. May) @ CH White Sox (C. Sale)
- May is 2-3 with a 5+ ERA this season, allowing 8 ER in 7.1 IP on the road and 9 ER in 10.2 IP in his last two starts; Sale is 3-1 with a 4.36 ERA, 2 of his 7 starts were very good (2 ER or less), 2 were very bad (13 ER in 8.1 IP, one of them against the Twins with May), he allowed 3 ER in 16 IP in his last 2
- the Twins pen has the 3rd highest ERA of all AL pens and was quite bad over the last 7 days (6.62 ERA); the White Sox pen was not elite thusfar, but better than the Twins pen
- the Twins offense was below average overall to date (90 wRC+), bad over the last 7 days (78 wRC+) and is the worst AL offense (70 wRC+); the Sox offense has not done well this season (84 wRC+), was bad over the last 7 days (72 wRC+) and the worst AL offense over the last 7 days (80 wRC+)
- the Twins are 23-18 overall and 13-5 against LHP (winning the last 9 straight) and 5-5 in their last 10, but 9-12 on the road; the White Sox are 19-20 overall, 12-8 at home and won 11 of their last 17 (7-3 of their L10); White Sox won 11 of the last 22 against the Twins (3 straight) and are 8-2 with Sale against the Twins; White Sox have won much more games than their expected win pct suggests

CIN Reds (A. DeSclafani) @ CLE Indians (C. Kluber)
- DeSclafani is 2-4 with a 3.80 ERA, 16 ER over 19 IP over his last 4 starts; Kluber is 1-5 with a 3.79 ERA, allowing only 1 run in 17 IP over his last 2 starts
- Reds pen has the highest ERA (5.14) and lowest LOB% (65.2%) of all NL pens; Indians pen has walk-problems, but is doing better than the Reds pen
- Indians had a slightly above average offense overall and against RHP thusfar (107 wRC+ each), are quite good at home (117 wRC+) and over the last 7 days (113 wRC+); the Reds offense was slightly below average overall thusfar (91 wRC+), against RHP (86 wRC+) and on the road (90 wRC+) and has been silent lately (71 wRC+ L7d)
- Indians are 18-23 overall and 7-12 at home, but 7-3 in their L10, winning 4 in a row and 29 of the last 42 home games against NL teams since 2011; Reds are 18-23 and 9-14 on the road, lost 6 in a row and are 3-9 since the 2nd game of their double-header on May 9th, they won only 11 of their 41 road games against AL teams since 2011

MIL Brewers (M. Fiers) @ ATL Braves (S. Miller)
- Fiers is 1-4 with a 4.75 and 1.54 WHIP thusfar, but he allowed only 4 ER in his last 12 IP over two starts and only 5 ER in 17.1 IP on the road; Miller comes of a nearly-no-hitter against the Marlins, is 5-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, he’s allowed only 1 ER in 25 IP over his last 3 starts (2 complete games) and 3 ER in 21 IP in 3 home starts
- the Brewers pen has good K-numbers, but gives up the most HR/FB of all NL pens and has a 5.23 ERA over the last 7 days; the Braves pen walks too many and gives up too many HR, too, but has been more reliable lately
- the Brewers offense was the 2nd worst (80 wRC+) overall of all NL teams thusfar, bad lately (82 wRC+ L7d), bad against RHP (82 wRC+) and on the road (75 wRC+); the Braves were slightly below average on offense thusfar (90 wRC+), very bad over the last few days (67 wRC+ L7d), slightly below average against RHP (93 wRC+) and at home (94 wRC+)
- Brewers are 16-27 overall and 8-12 on the road, Brewers won yesterday with 11-0, but are 3-4 over their last 7 and are 0-8 against Shelby Miller; Braves are 20-21 overall and 10-10 at home, won 6 of their last and 6-2 against the Brewers at Atlanta since April 1st 2014

OAK Athletics (K. Graveman) @ TB Rays (N. Karns)
- Graveman is 1-2 in 4 starts with an abysmal 8.27 ERA and 2.02 WHIP; Karns is 3-1 with a below 3.77 ERA and a WHIP of only 1.17, having allowed only 3 ER in his last 4 starts over 21.2 IP
- the As pen is nothing to talk about much, it has already 12 losses on its own, the lowest LOB% (67.5 LOB%) and the highest ERA (5.09) of all AL teams and it performed equally bad over the last few days; the Rays pen has the most saves of all AL teams (19), good LOB% numbers (79.3%) and a solid ERA (3.07 ERA), while it was quite good over the last 7 days (11.39 K/9, 1.69 ERA)
- batting hasn’t been the biggest problem for the As thusfar, neither overall (100 wRC+), nor against RHP (111 wRC+), but they are slightly below average on the road (92 wRC+) and bad over the last 7 days (78 wRC+, 2.1 R/G on average); the Rays had a solid offense to date (102 wRC+), were very good at home over the last 7 days (125 wRC+, 4.8 R/G), are mediocre against RHP (96 wRC+) and quite good at home (115 wRC+)
- the As are 14-30 overall and 9-16 on the road, they won only 2 games since May 6th and 1 of their last 9 road games and won only 2 of the last 8 at Tampa; the Rays are 24-19 overall and 13-9 at home, they are 7-3 over their L10 and won 12 of their last 15 home games

SF Giants (C. Heston) @ COL Rockies (J. Lyles)
- Heston is 3-3 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, he was tagged for 7 H and 5 ER in only 2.0 IP in his last start, he was either lights out (5 starts with 38 IP and 4 ER) or completely off (3 starts with 12.1 IP and 16 ER) this season; Lyles is 2-4 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, similar to Heston performing either very good (3 starts with 18.2 IP and 4 ER) or very bad (4 starts with 24 IP and 18 ER), he had tons of trouble in his last 3 starts (neglecting his 1.0 IP start at LAA), in which he gave up 14 ER in 18 IP
- the Giants pen was overall solid this season, but got roughed up yesterday and has the lowest K/9 number (6.84) of all NL pens; the Rockies pen has got the 2nd lowest LOB% (65.4%) and ERA (4.75) of all NL pens
- the Giants have the 2nd best NL offense thusfar (108 wRC+), which is mainly due to their strong performance lately (151 wRC+ L7), they have the 2nd best NL offense against RHP (111 wRC+) and the best NL road offense (118 wRC+); Rockies have a solid season batting average (.265), but the lowest BB% of all NL offenses (5.8%) and therefore only a 84 wRC+, they haven’t done well over the last 7 days (81 wRC+), are below average against RHP (86 wRC+) and at home (85 wRC+)
- the Giants are 24-18 overall and 10-9 on the road, they won 7 straight and are 21-9 in their last 30; the Rockies are 15-24 overall and 6-12 at home, they lost 22 of their last 30 overall and 8 of their last 10 at home

SF Giants (Y. Petit) @ COL Rockies (D. Hale)
- Petit will make his first start in 2015, he has 22 IP out of the pen thusfar with a 3.27 ERA and very low GB% of only 24.3%, he started 12 games in 2014 and had a 5.03 ERA with allowing 1.46 HR/9, while he had a 1.84 ERA with 0.18 HR/9 out of the pen last year; Hale will make his first appearance of the season, he has pitched in 47 games in the majors, starting 8, in those 8 starts he has a 2.45 ERA, but in his 5 starts in AAA in 2015 he has a 6.93 ERA, 4.74 BB/9 and .355 BAA

LA Angels (C. Wilson) @ BOS Red Sox (S. Wright)
- Wilson is 2-2 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, only 2 of his 8 outings were bad thusfar; Wright makes his 2nd start this season, he’s got a 4.02 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP in 3 games (2 out of the pen) this season
- the Angels pen has been solid overall this season (8.56 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 76.8% LOB%, 3.22 ERA), but a little bit worse lately; the Red Sox pen has a mediocre ERA (3.69), but gives up way too many longballs (1.34 HR/9), especially over the last 7 days (2.30 HR/9)
- Angels batting has been a problem all season long (88 wRC+) and they have the lowest OBP of all AL teams (.292), the last 7 days showed improvement (111 wRC+), but they can’t hit RHP very well (80 wRC+) and are a bad road offense (82 wRC+); surprisingly the Red Sox offense has been a problem, too (87 wRC+), they walk often and don’t K often, they have been quite mediocre recently (93 wRC+ L7d) and are one of the the worst AL team against LHP (.194 AVG, .614 OPS, 70 wRC+), but decent at home (96 wRC+)
- Angels are 22-20 overall and 12-11 on the road, they are 11-5 over their last 16 and 8-3 in their last 11 against RHP; the Red Sox are 19-23 overall and 8-12 at home, they are only 2-5 in their last 7 and lost the last 3 straight, Red Sox are only 5-7 against LHP this season and 1-4 in their last 5 against LHP

St. Louis Cardinals (J. Lackey) @ KC Royals (E. Volquez)
- Lackey is 2-2 with a very good 2.96 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, he had two bad road starts in April, but did better in his last two road starts; Volquez is 3-3 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, he had only 2 of 8 outings in which he had some problems, the rest was more than solid
- Cards may have the best pen of the NL, Royals the best pen of the AL, not much more to say
- Cards have been solid on offense thusfar (101 wRC+), as well as over the last 7 days (102 wRC+) and against RHP (102 wRC+), but slightly below average on the road (92 wRC+); Royals have the best AL offense (114 wRC+), although they have the lowest BB% number of all AL teams (5.4%), they have fallen off a little bit over the last 7 days (87 wRC+), but own RHP (110 wRC+) and are strong at home (111 wRC+)
- the Cards are 27-15 overall and 12-10 on the road, but only 5-8 in their last 13, 5-7 in their last 12 road games and 4-6 in their last 10 against RHP, additionally they are 10-14 in their last 24 away games against AL teams (including playoffs); the Royals are 27-14 and 16-6 at home, are on a 4 game-win-streak and won 12 of their last 17 home games against NL teams (including playoffs)

BAL Orioles (M. Wright) @ MIA Marlins (D. Haren)
- Wright was very strong in his first outing this season, giving up only 4 hits, 0 walks and 0 ER in 7.1 IP of work, he was very solid in AAA, too (6 starts, 2.64 ERA, 3-0); Haren is 4-2 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, but has given up already 8 HR in 49.1 IP, in 4 home starts in 2015 he has a 2.37 ERA and has given up only 16 hits and 3 walks in those, he's given up only 1 HR in 121 career ABs against current Os batters
- the Os pen has been mediocre thusfar (3.63 ERA), giving up too many HR (1.29 HR/9), they had the same problem over the last few games; despite the lowest HR/9 number of all NL teams (0.38 HR/9), the Marlins pen has been bad (6-10 W-L, 4.17 ERA), but they improved lately (2.51 ERA L7d)
- the Os have one of the better AL offenses (104 wRC+), but aren‘t doing too well over the last 7 days (79 wRC+), nonetheless they are good against RHP (107 wRC+) and mediocre on the road (99 wRC+); the Marlins have a below average offense (87 wRC+) which is mainly because of their lack of power (.107 ISO, worst in the NL), they were abysmal over the last 7 days (56 wRC+), have below average numbers against RHP (83 wRC+) and are very bad at home (81 wRC+, .100 ISO)
- the Os are 19-20 on the season and 6-11 on the road, they won 7 of their last 12 and 4 of their last 5 as well as 6 of the last 9 against RHP; the Marlins are 16-27 overall and 8-15 at home, they lost the last 8 straight and won only 1 of their last 12 (2.8-5.6 R/G on avg)

SD Padres (I. Kennedy) @ LA Dodgers (M. Bolsinger)
- Kennedy is 2-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.47 WHIP this season, he’s given up 11 ER in his last two outings and he’s got some bad numbers against certain Dodgers; Bolsinger is 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 3 starts thusfar
- surprisingly the Padres pen has been the worst in the NL thusfar (4.55 ERA, 1.45 HR/9), last few days showed no difference; the Dodgers pen leads the NL in K/9 (10.95) and has a very good ERA (2.59), but the Dodgers pen had tons of problems lately (5.40 ERA, 2.31 HR/9), although striking out opposing hitters at an even higher rate (11.57)
- although being completly off over the last few days (48 wRC+ L7d) and being shut out by the Giants 3 games in a row, the Dodgers still have the best NL offense on the season (121 wRC+) and the highest ISO (.193) and walk rate (10.4% BB), they have been dangerous against RHP (128 wRC+, .212 ISO) and at home (135 wRC+, .212 ISO); Padres are again below average (92 wRC+) despite some additions, they have been a joke on offense lately (44 wRC+), aren’t good against RHP (89 wRC+) and on the road (90 wRC+)
- Dodgers are 25-16 overall, 18-5 at home, 23-12 against RHP and 8-2 against Kennedy since 2013, but only 3-6 in their last 9 overall; Padres are 20-23 overall and 9-11 on the road, they lost 3 straight, 10 of their last 18 and 6 of their last 7

Chicago Cubs (J. Arrieta) @ ARI Diamondbacks (R. De La Rosa)
- Arrieta is 4-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, he’s only allowed 2 ER in his last two starts; De La Rosa is 4-2 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, he was either hit or miss at home (2 games with 14 IP, 7 H, 2 BB and 1 ER vs. 2 games with 13.1 IP, 16 H, 4 BB and 10 ER)
- the Cubs pen was not very good this season (4.24 ERA) and walked a ton of batters lately (4.91 BB/9 L7d); the Dbacks pen wasn’t better overall, but they did well over the last few games (2.89 ERA)
- Cubs batting was slightly below average thusfar overall (95 wRC+), which is mainly to their NL-leading K% of 25.4%, the last few days saw this even dropping (74 wRC+, 26.6% K%), they had minor problems against RHP thusfar (91 wRC+), but are a decent road offense (99 wRC+); the Dbacks have a similar offense (95 wRC+), but are striking out not as much, they did equally bad over the last few days (78 wRC+), are more or less similar at home like the Cubs versus RHP (92 wRC+) and are doing similarly at home like the Cubs on the road (98 wRC+)
- Cubs are 23-18 overall and 10-10 on the road, are 8-3 in their last 11, but 2-3 in their last 5 and 6-9 in their last 15 road games; the Dbacks are 20-21 on the season and 10-12 at home, they won 5 straight and 6 of their last 10 home games

[Big Bear]

u going tout?

anyway good work.

[posey]

So, my freetime today was spennt well and I was able to finish it few seconds ago. I hope that some guys find some helpful insight.

[posey]

TEX Rangers (N. MartineZ) @ NY Yankees (C. Sabathia)
- Martinez is pitching a very good season and CC is not the CC from a few years ago
- The Yankees have the clear advantage regarding the bullpen
- Currently the Yankees offense looks worse than the Rangers offense
- HPU is B. Knight, road teams are 5-2 with him
- Lean: Rangers F5 +0.5 +102

SEA Mariners (J. Paxton) @ Toronto Blue Jays (M. Buehrle)
- Paxton is better than Buehrle
- Bullpens are equally (bad)
- The Jays offense is very strong, especially against LHP and at home and you never know which version of the Mariners offense shows up
- Lean: no bet

NY Mets (M. Harvey) @ PIT Pirates (A. Burnett)
- Both pitchers lights out this season
- Bullpens equally
- Mets offense is so bad on the road and I see AJ doing well again, so maybe the Pirates need only to score a few runs to win this and get out of their slump, but I don’t see many runs here
- HPU is M. Muchlinski and the OU is 4-3 this season with him behind HP
- Lean: Under 6.5 +102

PHI Phillies (C. Hamels) @ WSH Nationals (S. Strasburg)
- Both have very good studs against opposing lineups, but Hamels much better than Strasburg this season
- Nats pen much better, but Phillies pen not too bad
- Nats lineup can crush it 4-5 games in a row and then go silent again, add this to the talk about the starters and the fact that the offense of the visitors is a joke, I don’t see many runs here either, which means that the game should be quite close and this is a benefit for the dog
- I don’t like a total of 6.5 in this one since it’s not too unlikely that Strasburg is off again or that the Nats have one of their hot days
- HPU is B. Bellino and home teams are 5-3 with him thusfar (2-3 last 5)
- Lean: Phillies ML +140

HOU Astros (L. McCullers) @ DET Tigers (K. Lobstein)
- I haven’t seen McCullers in his first start and I don’t like to bet games with guys who I never have seen before, so although I don’t like Lobstein (or I would like to bet against him) I’ll pass
- Lean: no bet

MIN Twins (T. May) @ CH White Sox (C. Sale)
- It won’t happen that May wins the duel against Sale again, May has some talent but is too inconsistent thusfar to be a pitcher we can rely on too often, especially on the road
- The Twins pen is a joke and the Sox pen has much more talent than it has shown thusfar
- Since I consider the Twins offense hitting way over their heads and sooner or later the White Sox offense has to wake up, I can’t give a solid prediction here
- Sale should dominate this matchup, but the line is too juicy for me here and I don’t like to bet RLs, I also think that the total of 7.5 is spot on, so this would only leave an F5 bet here
- HPU is D. Eddings and home teams are 2-5 with him thusfar, but I don't consider this as a factor in this matchup
- Lean: White Sox F5 -0.5 -125

CIN Reds (A. DeSclafani) @ CLE Indians (C. Kluber)
- Including DeSclafani the Reds were a joke as of late, the Indians have been doing better in all regards including a clear improvement by Kluber
- Since Kluber can shutdown this lineup I don’t like to bet on a total here, since DeSclafani can be roughed up again by a rather hot Indians offense
- ML is too juicy here, the F5 line is as well, the team total of the Reds (3) is spot on, too, but I think a shot on the Indians team total (4) could be worth a shot with the chance on cash back
- HPU is S. Barber, home teams are 4-3 with him and the OU is 4-3 with him behind HP
- Lean: Indians TT over 4 -108

OAK Athletics (K. Graveman) @ TB Rays (N. Karns)
- Graveman is a joke, Karns is doing better
- The As pen is bad
- Now even the As offense has problems, while Tampa is doing much better on offense and overall than many expected
- The line has already too much juice to bet on the Rays, their F5 –0.5 odds look good (-102) but what does look even better are the total (over 7.5 at -103) since Karns is no stud or the Rays TT (over 4 at -107)
- but HPU is R. Drake and OU is 2-5 with him behind HP
- Lean: no bet

SF Giants (C. Heston) @ COL Rockies (J. Lyles)
- I hate to bet on games which feature TWO pitchers who can either shutdown a lineup or get roughed up, so the strong record of the Giants doesn’t help here, at least for me
- Lean: no bet

SF Giants (Y. Petit) @ COL Rockies (D. Hale)
- Neither pitcher has a start in 2015, so a clear pass form e
- Lean: no bet

LA Angels (C. Wilson) @ BOS Red Sox (S. Wright)
- A very solid and proven starter against a spot starter who can’t be trusted
- A generally bad offense against a lineup which can’t hit LHP
- Two mediocre to bad bullpens
- But Angels hot and Red Sox not, right now Angels are a dog for plus money, so a play on the Angels seems like a nobrainer here
- HPU is J. Hoye and road teams are 4-4 with him thusfar
- Lean: Angels ML +102

St. Louis Cardinals (J. Lackey) @ KC Royals (E. Volquez)
- Two rather good pitchers, two very good bullpens
- Royals offense very good this season, but Cards offense can never be ruled out
- Because of the last few games I favor the Royals here and this is what the bookies do as well, the total is set well with 7.5 and I don’t see a bet here which makes a lot of sense to me
- Lean: nobet

BAL Orioles (M. Wright) @ MIA Marlins (D. Haren)
- Wright isn’t proven, but was strong in AAA and in his first start, while Haren enjoys one his best seasons in recent seasons
- Neither bullpen is elite, but if it comes down to them I trust the Os pen much more
- The Os can hit very well on a good day and the Marlins are way more often cold than hot and they are the worst team in recent weeks next to the As
- The Marlins shouldn’t be favored against anybody right now, even not with Haren, so a play on the Dog for plus money makes sense to me here
- HPU is J. Baker and home teams are 6-2 with him thusfar but looking at the matchup this may have much more to do with the pitchers than him
- Lean: Orioles ML +104

SD Padres (I. Kennedy) @ LA Dodgers (M. Bolsinger)
- I don’t know what’s so special about Bolsinger since I have seen him already 2 games this season, but this guy gets hitters out and Kennedy isn’t the Kennedy from a few years ago
- Both pens can’t be trusted
- Both offenses rather bad lately, but if it comes down to I would always pick the Dodgers lineup at home against a RHP
- Way too much juice on everything I would like here and the total is set right, too
- Lean: no bet

Chicago Cubs (J. Arrieta) @ ARI Diamondbacks (R. De La Rosa)
- Arrieta has a very good ERA but lost already 4 starts, De La Rosa can be very strong or very bad
- Neither pen is doing well lately
- Both lineups are more or less equally effective
- Cubs may be 8-3 in their last 11, but I think it’s not too unlikely that they will hit a (smaller or bigger) wall rather sooner than later and a hot Dbacks team could be this wall, especially after they have proven yesterday that they can beat the Cubs, so the Snakes at plus money looks good to me here
- HPU is C. Conroy and home teams are 3-4 with him thusfar and similar to Baker this seems to be pitcher related
- Lean: Dbacks ML +115


MIL Brewers (M. Fiers) @ ATL Braves (S. Miller)
- Fiers has been good lately, but the Brewers are bad, I don't mind them taking 2 from the Tigers
- Braves are not elite, but Shelby at those odds would be a nice bet, but I think that sooner or later he will be tired and after 2 CG in his last 3 games it could be the time for it
- But at those odds it's hard to pass on Miller
- HPU is J. Joyce and home teams are 6-3 with him
- Lean: Atlanta ML -110

[larry040681]

tailing mets @ pitt under 6.5

[reaclast]

can u take out a parlay of 5 teams from your good work please? need to play one and i dont know so much about mlb, trusting u

[posey]

can u take out a parlay of 5 teams from your good work please? need to play one and i dont know so much about mlb, trusting u

Puh, that's really hard work.

To sum it up, I have those leans thusfar:
Rangers F5 +0.5 +102
Mets @ Pirates Under 6.5 +102
Phillies ML +140
White Sox F5 -0.5 -125
Indians TT over 4 -108
Angels ML +102
Orioles ML +104
Dbacks ML +115
Atlanta ML -110

And for me it's really hard to take the best 5. It's possible that I am wrong on all of those, that I win 3, that I win 6 or that I win all. I like all quite much.

[larry040681]

posey, do you think that the game for texas @ yankees might go under?

I'm seeing this as 6 or less..

[posey]

I can at least say that I don't expect too many runs in this game. But I thought the same of the game yesterday.

[larry040681]

I can at least say that I don't expect too many runs in this game. But I thought the same of the game yesterday.

[larry040681]

i took ff under 4...

[posey]

Looks good. BOL larry.

[larry040681]

Puh, that's really hard work.

To sum it up, I have those leans thusfar:
Rangers F5 +0.5 +102
Mets @ Pirates Under 6.5 +102
Phillies ML +140
White Sox F5 -0.5 -125
Indians TT over 4 -108
Angels ML +102
Orioles ML +104
Dbacks ML +115
Atlanta ML -110

And for me it's really hard to take the best 5. It's possible that I am wrong on all of those, that I win 3, that I win 6 or that I win all. I like all quite much.

sudden change.. atl now at +103

[posey]

Yeah have seen it to. But had locked in all before...

[posey]

TEX F5 looking good. Nice start.

[larry040681]

i took ff under 4...

moving on..

[larry040681]

now, hope texas win this with 5-0 adv...

[posey]

CC is too old. He's good for the occasional good start but nothing more...

[Big Bear]

CC is too old. He's good for the occasional good start but nothing more...

that fat fukk cant pitch his way out of a wet paper bag.

I think it might be time for ole bitch to retire