1. 04-17-15 07:19 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Friday, 4/17/15

    7 MLB Plays Friday

    White Sox +163 (5 Dimes)
    Braves / Blue Jays UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
    Marlins +127 (Heritage)
    Athletics / Royals OVER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Reds +117 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Mariners UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)
    Diamondbacks / Giants UNDER 7 +110 (Heritage)


    YTD: 27-26, +3.36
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  2. 04-17-15 07:34 AM #2
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    7 MLB Plays Friday

    White Sox +163 (5 Dimes)
    Braves / Blue Jays UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
    Marlins +127 (Heritage)
    Athletics / Royals OVER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Reds +117 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Mariners UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)
    Diamondbacks / Giants UNDER 7 +110 (Heritage)


    YTD: 27-26, +3.36
    LT, I know that CWS plus money looks good, but do you really think they can win outright vs. Price who is home ???
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  3. 04-17-15 07:35 AM #3
    carll
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    Whitesox ? D price is up today!!! take Det or under

    bad bad play!!
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  4. 04-17-15 07:52 AM #4
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post

    LT, I know that CWS plus money looks good, but do you really think they can win outright vs. Price who is home ???
    Quote Originally Posted by carll View Post
    Whitesox ? D price is up today!!! take Det or under

    bad bad play!!
    I only make the White Sox +150 with Samardzija so I think the value is there at +163. I only expect Chicago to win this matchup 40% of the time (hence the +150), but that is good enough for a profit at +163.
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  5. 04-17-15 07:53 AM #5
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I only make the White Sox +150 with Samardzija so I think the value is there at +163. I only expect Chicago to win this matchup 40% of the time (hence the +150), but that is good enough for a profit at +163.
    Good explanation, but I think you are reaching here. BOL.
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  6. 04-17-15 07:57 AM #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Good explanation, but I think you are reaching here. BOL.
    As long as I am "reaching" 60% of the time and not 40%, I'll take it.
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  7. 04-17-15 08:05 AM #7
    Yons18
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    I'm surprised to see that you're not taking the Rockies tonight (+248). Lot of value in a hot offensive Colorado team vs a struggling Kershaw who just got a root canal this week lol
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  8. 04-17-15 08:08 AM #8
    carll
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    root canal? ....Rockies win easy....better yet ...take the over 6.5 low lines for clayton but there going WAY OVER!!

    pitches get huge contracts and then can't pitch...look at Justin he's sucks and on DL LOL making 18 million LOL
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  9. 04-17-15 08:09 AM #9
    GoBlue23
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I only make the White Sox +150 with Samardzija so I think the value is there at +163. I only expect Chicago to win this matchup 40% of the time (hence the +150), but that is good enough for a profit at +163.
    I read through your threads daily and it is amazing how often you explain the concept of perceived value, yet the same posters question plays over and over again. Perceived value is really a fairly simple concept.

    I have CWS capped at +146 and am on them as well at +161 FWIW

    BOL LT
    Points Awarded:

    Emancipator gave GoBlue23 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  10. 04-17-15 08:16 AM #10
    Yons18
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    Quote Originally Posted by carll View Post
    root canal? ....Rockies win easy....better yet ...take the over 6.5 low lines for clayton but there going WAY OVER!!

    pitches get huge contracts and then can't pitch...look at Justin he's sucks and on DL LOL making 18 million LOL
    Was hit in the face by a come backer during Spring Training and got a root canal to fix a lot of the discomfort he had still lingering around.
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  11. 04-17-15 08:17 AM #11
    PorkChop
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    Samardzija pitched very poorly his first outing. I'd expect a better showing tonight..Under may be play assuming Price holds CHW bats in place
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  12. 04-17-15 08:34 AM #12
    jjgold
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    Samardzija he a pitcher than just cannot win

    good stuff but always around 500
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  13. 04-17-15 09:06 AM #13
    Yons18
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Samardzija he a pitcher than just cannot win

    good stuff but always around 500
    Seemed like he couldn't catch a break with the Cubs. Went to Oakland, still couldn't win. Can't win yet this season. For stats considered "luck stats" his are ridiculously high (bad luck).
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  14. 04-17-15 10:09 AM #14
    Nitronett
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    Detroit bout to kill samaradja man lol
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  15. 04-17-15 12:05 PM #15
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by carll View Post
    Whitesox ? D price is up today!!! take Det or under

    bad bad play!!
    i agree fading Price is foolish.
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  16. 04-17-15 12:59 PM #16
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    i agree fading Price is foolish.
    Do you EVER consider the price when you make statements like that? Read Post #4.
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  17. 04-17-15 01:03 PM #17
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Do you EVER consider the price when you make statements like that? Read Post #4.
    there is more value in Tigers -1.5 than the White Sox ML.

    you said yourself you think the White Sox only have a 40% chance to win.

    so basically you are making a bet that you expect to lose.

    and if you expect to lose than you should go with the better hitting club with the better pitcher and hope they win by 2 or more.

    Its a bad matchup for the white sox
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  18. 04-17-15 01:27 PM #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    there is more value in Tigers -1.5 than the White Sox ML.

    you said yourself you think the White Sox only have a 40% chance to win.

    so basically you are making a bet that you expect to lose.

    and if you expect to lose than you should go with the better hitting club with the better pitcher and hope they win by 2 or more.

    Its a bad matchup for the white sox
    But 40% is profitable at +163. Everything I do in all sports is value based. And you can't just say give the -1.5 then like it is no big deal, especially with a home team. Giving 1.5 cuts your winning percentage by about 20% and the percentage is higher for home teams.
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  19. 04-17-15 01:58 PM #19
    jjgold
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    LT good luck today
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  20. 04-17-15 02:01 PM #20
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Do you EVER consider the price when you make statements like that? Read Post #4.
    Isn't he pitching for Detroit today?
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  21. 04-17-15 02:09 PM #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Isn't he pitching for Detroit today?
    Touche!
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  22. 04-17-15 02:09 PM #22
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    1 MLB Addition

    8 MLB Plays Friday

    White Sox +163 (5 Dimes)
    Braves / Blue Jays UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
    Marlins +127 (Heritage)
    Athletics / Royals OVER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Angels / Astros OVER 9 -109 (5 Dimes)
    Reds +117 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Mariners UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)
    Diamondbacks / Giants UNDER 7 +110 (Heritage)
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  23. 04-17-15 02:57 PM #23
    PorkChop
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    Can't beleive your on an over at 9
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  24. 04-17-15 03:35 PM #24
    mngambler
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    Keep fading Price...you did the same last week, it seems to work wonders
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  25. 04-17-15 03:39 PM #25
    TwoWays
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    Quote Originally Posted by mngambler View Post
    Keep fading Price...you did the same last week, it seems to work wonders
    Value. No juice kid. Profits will win in the end
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  26. 04-17-15 03:41 PM #26
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by mngambler View Post
    Keep fading Price...you did the same last week, it seems to work wonders
    Did you even see how the game played out? Once it was 1-1 in the 9th inning with the starters out of the game, it became 50/50 who would win the game. I will gladly take having +163 in that situation every time, it was a good play that didn't pan out this time. No big deal.
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  27. 04-17-15 04:26 PM #27
    Emancipator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    i agree fading Price is foolish.
    Actually fading Price has been a historically good bet, as books know everyone overvalues him.
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  28. 04-17-15 04:39 PM #28
    LT Profits
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    Another MLB Addition

    9 MLB Plays Friday

    White Sox +163 (5 Dimes)
    Braves / Blue Jays UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
    Marlins +127 (Heritage)
    Athletics -115 (Heritage)
    Athletics / Royals OVER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Angels / Astros OVER 9 -109 (5 Dimes)
    Reds +117 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Mariners UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)
    Diamondbacks / Giants UNDER 7 +110 (Heritage)
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  29. 04-17-15 04:51 PM #29
    sballen
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    But 40% is profitable at +163. Everything I do in all sports is value based. And you can't just say give the -1.5 then like it is no big deal, especially with a home team. Giving 1.5 cuts your winning percentage by about 20% and the percentage is higher for home teams.
    No use in explaining LT, some people just don't get it. Guy says "if it only wins 40% of the time then take the other side,"

    So if the bet only wins 40% of the time yet the favorite is -500, this clown would take the favorite according to his logic the fact that some can't understand value just shows how truly stupid the general betting public is.
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