[BiffTFinancial]

Will post and track all plays here. If juice is not posted, it should be assumed that juice is -110 (so, under 7 means under 7 (-110). Also, i will use an apostrophe to denote the hook (7' = 7.5).

My plays are based primarily upon my model - a play either shows enough value as a side/total for me to play it or it doesn't (and of course i then weed out many plays that qualify; the model is simply a threshold). All discussion of all plays is welcome, whether you agree with my thoughts or not (in fact, I appreciate dissenting viewpoints, as I know that i don't know it all). Let's have some fun, make some money, learn something.

BOL to all this season.

[BiffTFinancial]

Monday 4.6.2015
1* Jays ML (+130)
1* Marlins -1 RL (+116)

[BiffTFinancial]

also like Angels/M's under 6' later, waiting for ump.

[EXhoosier10]

also like Angels/M's under 6' later, waiting for ump.

I"m getting all excited for totals this year, and then realize i can't even play any of them without umps. This will be a long morning

[CappinTerp]

Good luck Biff............have a great season!! Hope all is well out there.

[Razorbacks1]

Baseball is back Biffer!! I'll toss a play or two in your thread to see if you have an angle on it. Hope things for you personally are getting better. BOL this season.

Going to play the Jays at plus money for some early action.
Edit... Didn't see you were on em also, BOL to us.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Angels/Mariners under 6' (-105)

Monday 4.6.2015 updated card
1* Jays ML (+130)
1* Marlins -1 RL (+116)
1* Angels/Mariners under 6' (-105)


BOL to all today.

[BiffTFinancial]

I"m getting all excited for totals this year, and then realize i can't even play any of them without umps. This will be a long morning

it is nice that MLB.com is showing the umps much earlier today than last year. here's hoping that becomes a regular thing...

[BiffTFinancial]

Good luck Biff............have a great season!! Hope all is well out there.

Thanks, CT - BOL to you too, and hope that all is well with you and yours!

[BiffTFinancial]

Baseball is back Biffer!! I'll toss a play or two in your thread to see if you have an angle on it. Hope things for you personally are getting better. BOL this season.

Going to play the Jays at plus money for some early action.
Edit... Didn't see you were on em also, BOL to us.

Thanks, pal, great to see you. This thread is for discussion, so by all means, please throw out your thoughts. I generally run my model for most games on a given day, so that data is loaded and i may well have some thoughts if i'm around. BOL today!

[pacocn]

Biffster, Here's wishing you a great season , good luck brotha!!!!!

[BiffTFinancial]

Monday 4.6.2015 final card
1* Jays ML (+130) - WINNER
1* Marlins -1 RL (+116) - LOSER
1* Angels/Mariners under 6' (-105) - WINNER

2-1 +1.3u

Proper start to season, Saltalamacchia bases loaded assgrabbery notwithstanding.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biffster, Here's wishing you a great season , good luck brotha!!!!!

thanks, brotha!

[BiffTFinancial]

Tuesday 4.7.2015
1* Rockies/Brewers under 8' (-110)
1* Rangers/A's under 7' (-118)

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Padres ML (+145)

Tuesday 4.7.2015 updated card
1* Rockies/Brewers under 8' (-110)
1* Rangers/A's under 7' (-118)
1* Padres ML (+145)

[BiffTFinancial]

some thoughts on Wednesday's card:
- lean Twins/Tigers FF over, but passing due to weather (expected to be 42 degrees at first pitch) and Barksdale behind plate (mild under ump in my book)
- lean Cubs FF ML and Cards/Cubs under in the other afternoon game
- lean Jays, White Sox, Rangers at night
- Tribe -1 RL my favorite play tomorrow. may play 2u
- one of my favorite over umps (Sam Holbrook) returning from injury in Cincy. lean over there (model has exactly 8 runs, and temps supposed to be in mid-70s), but may pass and watch there.
- also lean Mets FF/FG and Mets/Nats over 6' but that seems like pretty dangerous spot to play an over

[BiffTFinancial]

some thoughts on Wednesday's card:
- lean Twins/Tigers FF over, but passing due to weather (expected to be 42 degrees at first pitch) and Barksdale behind plate (mild under ump in my book)
- lean Cubs FF ML and Cards/Cubs under in the other afternoon game
- lean Jays, White Sox, Rangers at night
- Tribe -1 RL my favorite play tomorrow. may play 2u
- one of my favorite over umps (Sam Holbrook) returning from injury in Cincy. lean over there (model has exactly 8 runs, and temps supposed to be in mid-70s), but may pass and watch there.
- also lean Mets FF/FG and Mets/Nats over 6' but that seems like pretty dangerous spot to play an over

add Pads and Halos to leans, depending upon how tonight's game go.

[pacocn]

Biff, these look pretty solid at first glance i will be taking a much
closer look later tonight and tomorrow am.

[BiffTFinancial]

Tuesday 4.7.2015 final card
1* Rockies/Brewers under 8' (-110) - WINNER
1* Rangers/A's under 7' (-118) - WINNER
1* Padres ML (+145) - WINNER

3-0 +3.45u

5-1 +4.75u season to date

[BiffTFinancial]

Wednesday 4.8.2015
1* Tribe -1 RL (-108)

[BiffTFinancial]

not so sure that i want to go 2u on Tribe -1 RL. booking 1u now and will ponder some more.

[pacocn]

Tuesday 4.7.2015 final card
1* Rockies/Brewers under 8' (-110) - WINNER
1* Rangers/A's under 7' (-118) - WINNER
1* Padres ML (+145) - WINNER

3-0 +3.45u

5-1 +4.75u season to date

Biffster just like a boss

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Pirates team total over 3' (-105)
1* Padres ML (+128)

Wednesday 4.8.2015 updated card
1* Rats TT over 3' (-105)
1* Tribe -1 RL (-108)
1* Padres ML (+128)

BOL to all today.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biffster just like a boss

Thanks, brotha!

[robbeduagain]

I've been impressed with your handicapping and check your thread against what I pick all the time. With that said, I've got a question. If you liked Cleveland enough to consider putting 2 units on the 1rl, why wouldn't just play a unit in the -1.5rl? Better payoff and since Cleveland is on the road, they'll bat in the 9th no matter what. I'm always partial to playing road favorites on the -1.5 rl

[BiffTFinancial]

Wednesday 4.8.2015 final card
1* Rats TT over 3' (-105) - WINNER
1* Tribe -1 RL (-108) - WINNER
1* Padres ML (+128) - LOSER

2-1 +1u

7-2 +5.75u season to date

[BiffTFinancial]

I've been impressed with your handicapping and check your thread against what I pick all the time. With that said, I've got a question. If you liked Cleveland enough to consider putting 2 units on the 1rl, why wouldn't just play a unit in the -1.5rl? Better payoff and since Cleveland is on the road, they'll bat in the 9th no matter what. I'm always partial to playing road favorites on the -1.5 rl

Thank you very much for your kind words. I'm a big fan of the -1 RL, and i don't mind a push. Did some more research on play overnight, and based upon that (primarily Carrasco heart issues late last year and then this preseason; also general concern about Tribe offense) and the line move contra Tribe, i decided to go only 1u. You are correct, if i'd gone -1.5 RL, i'd have won something like +130 depending upon when i placed it. Then again, if it hadn't been for Aviles' 8th inning homer, -1 RL would've been a push while -1.5 RL would've lost. I don't think that i want to lay 1.5 with Tribe until i see them start hitting.

[BiffTFinancial]

Thursday 4.9.2015
1* White Sox/Royals over 8' (-105)
1* Jays ML (+106)

[BiffTFinancial]

not crazy about overs in early April, but Danks vs Volquez, a day game and some serious wind (blowing out to right-center at around 20 mph) have me on this one.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Tribe/Astros under 9 (+105)

Thursday 4.9.2015 updated card
1* White Sox/Royals over 8' (-105)
1* Jays ML (+106)
1* Tribe/Astros under 9 (+105)

BOL to all today.

[BiffTFinancial]

CC Sabathia is multi-talented...

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Jays team total over 3' (-125)

Thursday 4.9.2015 updated card
1* White Sox/Royals over 8' (-105) - LOSER
1* Tribe/Astros under 9 (+105) - WINNER
1* Jays ML (+106)
1* Jays TT over 3' (-125)

[No coincidences]

adding

1* Jays team total over 3' (-125)

Thursday 4.9.2015 updated card
1* White Sox/Royals over 8' (-105) - LOSER
1* Tribe/Astros under 9 (+105) - WINNER
1* Jays ML (+106)
1* Jays TT over 3' (-125)

Why has the NYY/TOR line moved so much?

[BiffTFinancial]

Why has the NYY/TOR line moved so much?

I upped unit size?

kidding of course. looks to me as if books are expecting a nice game out of Norris, given movement on line and total. let's hope so, BOL tonight, NC.

[No coincidences]

I upped unit size?

kidding of course. looks to me as if books are expecting a nice game out of Norris, given movement on line and total. let's hope so, BOL tonight, NC.

Hope you hit it. That kind of movement always makes me squeamish.