[Big Bear]

Dodgers got rid of Kemp b/c he was a clubhouse cancer....

Kemp is a selfish player who has no work ethic.

[stevenash]

Good to see credibility and a seaso long thread.

Best of luck

Outside of that solo shot by that little Miller (who I like) Carrasco pitched well.

Good luck to you d your Tribe this season.
Indians are legit.

[stevenash]

There are three elite closers in the game.
Across the past two seasons Greg Holland has been the best.

Holland: 129.1 IP, 1.32 ERA, .170 AVG, 193 SO, 38 BB, 6 HR
Chapman: 117.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, .145 AVG, 218 SO, 53 BB, 8 HR
Kimbrel: 128.2 IP, 1.40 ERA, .154 AVG, 193 SO, 46 BB, 6 HR

Save percentage

Holland: 93 of 98 (94.9 percent)
Kimbrel: 97 of 105 (92.4 percent)
Chapman: 74 of 81 (91.4 percent)

Who's 4th?

Reluctant to put Betances fourth because he's never closed, and I'm positive he'd be a great closer, but I think he's best suited as an 85 innings 2 inning type reliever rather than a babied 60 inning closer.
Girardi would be wise to split the closer/setup guy with Miller and Betances.

Jansen? Maybe, but he's on crutches.
Robertson? Reliable but will give up that home run ball.
Papelbon? Getting old, fastball tops out at 92mph now, his career is coming to an end.

Closer to keep an eye on.
Steve Cishek
I like him. Knock on Cishek is he has a crappy curveball.
Fact of the matter is, he's depenable and reliable.
Now that Miami has some sticks in the line up, his save total will increase.
Saved 39 out of 43 last season, not to shabby, and strikes out over a batter an inning.
Saved 34 in 2013, 39 in 2014, will save 42 this season.

Huston Street is a top ten closer.
Koji will have a bounce back year.
Trevor Hoffman too.

Benoit?
Remains to be seen in SD, but he has proven he can get the job done.
He's also proven he can be a gas can too.

Casilla walk too many batters.
Rondon is a giant question mark, and I'm not sure he's going to close.
Cody Allen is a question mark?
Melancon could be a good one.
Nathan is finished, stick a fork in him.

Like Nathan, when Feliz, Mejia, Addison Reed or Hawkins comes in, it's best to hide the women and children, because it's not going to be pretty.

Gregerson and Cecil are new closers, who knows?

There you have it.
There are only three elite closers in the game right now.

(I'll break down the entire bullpens for all the teams, but I don't have all sorts of free time, but I'll get to it)

[stevenash]

Team	Closer	Next in line	Stealth	Looming
ARI	Addison Reed	Brad Ziegler	Evan Marshall	Matt Stites
ATL	Craig Kimbrel	Jim Johnson	Jason Grilli	Shae Simmons
BAL	Zach Britton	Darren O'Day	Tommy Hunter	Brian Matusz
BOS	Koji Uehara	Edward Mujica	Junichi Tazawa	Heath Hembree
CHC	Hector Rondon	Pedro Strop	Jason Motte	Neil Ramirez
CHW	David Robertson	Zach Duke	Jake Petricka	Zach Putnam
CIN	Aroldis Chapman	Jumbo Diaz	Sam LeCure	J.J. Hoover
CLE	Cody Allen	Bryan Shaw	Scott Atchison	Nick Hagadone
COL	LaTroy Hawkins	Adam Ottavino	Rex Brothers	John Axford
DET	Joe Nathan	Joakim Soria	Al Alburquerque	Bruce Rondon
HOU	Spring battle: Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Chad Qualls, Josh Fields
KC	Greg Holland	Wade Davis	Kelvin Herrera	Luke Hochevar
LAA	Huston Street	Joe Smith	Fernando Salas	Cam Bedrosian
LAD	Joel Peralta	Brandon League	J.P. Howell	Kenley Jansen (Inj.)
MIA	Steve Cishek	A.J. Ramos	Mike Dunn	Aaron Crow
MIL	Francisco Rodriguez	Jonathan Broxton	Jim Henderson	Will Smith
MIN	Glen Perkins	Casey Fien	Brian Duensing	Caleb Thielbar
NYM	Jenrry Mejia	Jeurys Familia	Vic Black	Bobby Parnell (Inj.)
NYY	Spring battle: Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller		David Carpenter	Adam Warren
OAK	Tyler Clippard	Ryan Cook	Eric O'Flaherty	Sean Doolittle (Inj.)
PHIL	Jonathan Papelbon	Ken Giles	Jake Diekman	Justin De Fratus
PIT	Mark Melancon	Tony Watson	Jared Hughes	Antonio Bastardo
STL	Trevor Rosenthal	Jordan Walden	Matt Belisle	Carlos Martinez
SD	Joaquin Benoit	Kevin Quackenbush	Dale Thayer	Brandon Maurer
SF	Santiago Casilla	Sergio Romo	Jeremy Affeldt	Jean Machi
SEA	Fernando Rodney	Danny Farquhar	Yoervis Medina	Tom Wilhelmsen
TAM	Brad Boxberger	Kevin Jepsen	Grant Balfour	Jake McGee (Inj.)
TEX	Neftali Feliz	Kyuji Fujikawa	Shawn Tolleson	Roman Mendez
TOR	Spring battle: Brett Cecil, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, Steve Delabar
WASH	Drew Storen	Casey Janssen	Craig Stammen	Blake Treinen

[KiDBaZkiT]

Perfect Avatar man. I always say never again and every year I am always stoked for opening day. Always check your MLB stuff. Going to visit fam this year and gonna catch one of Shields' starts with new look Padres.

[Pete0]

good info as usual

looking forward to ur bullpen rankings =)

[GT21Megatron]

Marcus Stroman done for the year....unbelievable. Was really looking forward to seeing a full season with his kid up. I guess at least it wasn't an arm injury but sucks either way.

[stevenash]

Perfect Avatar man. I always say never again and every year I am always stoked for opening day. Always check your MLB stuff. Going to visit fam this year and gonna catch one of Shields' starts with new look Padres.

Saw an interview with James yesterday on MLB.tv
He's stoked to be home in Cali, and he's pumped to be pitching in the NL.
I love the guy, oh sure he's not an elite, but he represents everything good about MLB.
He puts in the grunt work, he never misses a turn, always smiling, and each and every teammate he ever played with loves him.

[stevenash]

Marcus Stroman done for the year....unbelievable. Was really looking forward to seeing a full season with his kid up. I guess at least it wasn't an arm injury but sucks either way.

My draft is in 2 weeks, and I had him on my radar for a middle of the draft steal.

[jihadvillager]

will you be sizing plays from 1-5x? Thank you!

[mlb]

Marcus Stroman done for the year....unbelievable. Was really looking forward to seeing a full season with his kid up. I guess at least it wasn't an arm injury but sucks either way.

nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo - damnit - was looking forward to snagging him in drafts and backing him.

fell behind on baseball news - was sorry to hear this one.

[jameski999]

Nasher I need some of your vast wisdom. I'm in a hitter only Fantasy baseball league. Homeruns & RBI's only. 33-35 teams 6 players/rounds serpentine and count only your 5 best scoring players. I need some "sleepers" or breakout players for the 4th-6th rounds that have the potential of getting me 100+ points(HR+RBI). 514 points took 1st place last year which was kind of low, usually 550-580 wins it. I had Trout at 7th overall last year and took 9th place but none of my other players broke 100 points(closest was Werth in 2nd rd). I have a min and can throw me out a few names to watch for in the late rounds would be much appreciated

[Madison]

Looking forward to your insight Nasher! Don't let the tards get you frustrated.

Is this Cashner's ytear in SD with hopefully a little offense?

Hated to see Vasquez go down in Beantown. He was an old school type at catcher.

Lets get em!!

[Big Bear]

Looking forward to the thread buddy

[stevenash]

MLB Regular Season Props Most Saves Any Pitcher Sun 4/5 8:05PM all players have action - regular season games only
Over 49½ saves	+130
Under 49½ saves	-160

The question is, will there be a 50 save reliever?
The best closers in the game are Holland, I don't think KC will have a repeat year like last year, so I don't think there'll be enough save oppurtunities for him.
Next best closer is Kimbrel, same for the Braves, they are going to take a hit too this year, not enough save opps to reach 50 for Kimbrel. No.
Best chance is Chapman and his Reds, Chapman could save 50 or 51.
Drew Storen isn't good enough to save 50 for the Nats.
Jansen is on the DL, so he won't do it.

Have to go under, only one who has a chance is Chapman, but not laying the -160.
*Nobody saved 50 last year, in 2014 Johnson (Baltimore) and Kimbrel had 50 each.

MLB Regular Season Props Most Wins Any Pitches Sun 4/5 8:05PM all players have action - regular season games only
Over 21 wins	-115
Under 21 wins	-115

The real question is, will there be a 22 game winner this year?
21 gets a push.
The real question is will Kershaw win 22, because he is the only pitcher in this day and age can win 22.
(Maybe Price in Detroit, but that's it)
Last 22 game winner was Verlander with 24 in 2011 and Cliff Lee in 2008 with 22

Price or Kershaw should win 21 for a push, and there are others capable, not worth the six month tie up of funds though.
Pass

MLB Regular Season Props Most Home Runs Any Player Sun 4/5 8:05PM all players have action - regular season games only
Over 43½ home runs	+100
Under 43½ home runs	-130

Best bet on the board.
Word is the umpires are going to make the strike zone shorter this year, making the game more hitting friendly.
There are two in Toronto alone that can hit more than 44, Joey Bats and Encarnancion. Stanton can easily do it, Goldy in Arizona, Mike Trout can do it......

BEST BET! OVER 43.5

MLB Regular Season Props Most Hits Any Player Sun 4/5 8:05PM all players have action - regular season games only
Over 213½ hits	+105
Under 213½ hits	-135

Another best bet.
They are offering + money on 214 hits by any one hitter.
Unless I am missing something here, this is easy money.
Altuve had 223 last season, and with the exception of 2013, there was 213 hits by a player in every season from 1996 to 2013.
Trout can do it, Altuve can do it again, most speed/contact hitters can do it.

YES ! over 213.5

MLB Regular Season Props Most Strikeouts Any Pitchers Sun 4/5 8:05PM all players have action - regular season games only
Over 264½ strikeouts	+130
Under 264½ strikeouts	-160

Even with a shorter strike zone, Price can strike on 271 again like last year.
So can Kershaw, remember he missed 7 starts last season.
Plenty of flame throwers can reach 265 K's.
Yes on that.


Chapman is 11 to 1 to win the save crown.
Putting 20 on that to win 220
And putting 100 to win 105 on over 213.5 hits for the hit crown.
(can't bet everything I like, these are 6 month long bets)

[stevenash]

St. Louis Cardinals +105 over Chicago Cubs
(Wainwright v. Lester)

1) With the exception of newly acquired Heyward and Matt Adams, Cardinals hit LHP well.
Holliday smokes LHP.

2) This is not the Cubs best lineup.

Fowler
Soler
Rizzo
Castro
Coghlan
Olt
Ross
Lester
LaStella

(interesting-Lester batting 8th)

After you get past Castro, the second half of that iineup is horse shit

3) Cards have the better bullpen.

Cards line up is superior, pitching matchup is a wash, Cards have the better bullpen.
I'm getting +105, reduced juice 5D

2* gets 210
St. Louis over Chicago

[MickeyMan]

Anyone like the braves tomorrow?

holla

[stevenash]

Anyone like the braves tomorrow?

holla

Under, Alvarez has an good year last year, Teheran was rock solid last year, and Stanton is like 2 for 21 against him.
Under 7 for me.

[EXhoosier10]

Under, Alvarez has an good year last year, Teheran was rock solid last year, and Stanton is like 2 for 21 against him.
Under 7 for me.

For anyone interested in not falling into the blackhole that is streakiness or batter/pitcher matchups.
http://razzball.com/hitter-streakiness/

[stevenash]

For anyone interested in not falling into the blackhole that is streakiness or batter/pitcher matchups.
http://razzball.com/hitter-streakiness/

A HvP matchup is relevant when there is a history of the two after 25-30 at bats.
A hitter that is 12 for 63 for instance lifetime against a particular pitcher will more than likely go 1 for 5 more times than he will go 3 for 4 against him.

Now, if a hitter is 3 for 5 against a pitcher, that is pretty much not a relevant stat, not a big enough sample size.
But, if there is a substantial sample size, like 12 for 63, to ignore that is just foolish.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Wow just heard Pads got Kimbrel from Atl in a deal! Bol this season Nasher as always.

[broadway6]

Go Cards!!!

[stevenash]

For anyone interested in not falling into the blackhole that is streakiness or batter/pitcher matchups.
http://razzball.com/hitter-streakiness/

So you mean to tell me, Stanton's 2 for 21 lifetime against Teheran, bear in mind, 7 of those 21 strikeouts is meaningless?
2 for 21 with 7 strikeouts doesn't suggest anything to you.

Are we saying the 6 games Teheran started aginst Stanton, he just got lucky?

[stevenash]

Wow just heard Pads got Kimbrel from Atl in a deal! Bol this season Nasher as always.

For two hamburgers and two bush leaguers.
Braves blowing the whole thing up.

[matt711]

Have another great season Nash....BOL

[TwoWays]

Nash been eating well the past two days. He's probably have crab legs and Budweiser tonight

[EXhoosier10]

So you mean to tell me, Stanton's 2 for 21 lifetime against Teheran, bear in mind, 7 of those 21 strikeouts is meaningless?
2 for 21 with 7 strikeouts doesn't suggest anything to you.

Are we saying the 6 games Teheran started aginst Stanton, he just got lucky?

Let's go to the numbers. Back of the napkin right here, so not taking into account weather, handedness, parkfactors, etc. Stanton's 3yr K rate is 28%. Teheran's is 22%. League average is roughly 18% IIRC. Odds ratio says that in this matchup, there should be a K 33.3% of the time. Over 21 AB's, that's 7 expected K's, which is exactly the amount of K's there has been in this matchup

Going to AVG, Teheran L3 years is .230. Stanton is .280. League average is .253. Again, odds ratio says expected number of hits over 21 AB's is 5.3. Stanton has 2. Considering how much randomness there is on BIP, I will hardly change my opinion of Stanton and say he's a league average (or below) batter against Teheran.

WRT walks, Stanton is expected to have walked 2.2 times in 25 PA's. He's actually walked 4.


So yes, I am saying that over the 6 games against Teheran, randomness happened and that I will instead base my projection for Giancarlo during this game against ATL on his 1,643 PA's since 2012 against all pitchers rather than the 21 he's had against Teheran.

[stevenash]

Let's go to the numbers. Back of the napkin right here, so not taking into account weather, handedness, parkfactors, etc. Stanton's 3yr K rate is 28%. Teheran's is 22%. League average is roughly 18% IIRC. Odds ratio says that in this matchup, there should be a K 33.3% of the time. Over 21 AB's, that's 7 expected K's, which is exactly the amount of K's there has been in this matchup

Going to AVG, Teheran L3 years is .230. Stanton is .280. League average is .253. Again, odds ratio says expected number of hits over 21 AB's is 5.3. Stanton has 2. Considering how much randomness there is on BIP, I will hardly change my opinion of Stanton and say he's a league average (or below) batter against Teheran.

So yes, I am saying that over the 6 games against Teheran, randomness happened and that I will instead base my projection for Giancarlo during this game against ATL on his 1,643 PA's since 2012 against all pitchers rather than the 21 he's had against Teheran.

First off, I never said BvP is the be all end all.
Secondly it's not even my go to stat when I handicap, but it should not be ignored.
Now, Teheran has lost a litttle velocity, 1.1 mph to be exact, so maybe Stanton will catch up to him.
Just because I said I liked the under, and even Stanton struggles against him, doesn't mean it's because of that one stat.
Alveraz is a ground ball pitcher, had a nice season last year inducing ground balls, that's a big part why I like the under, 5 factors why I like the under tomorrow, one of them is not the Stanton stat, however it should not be ignored.

Now, what does this suggest to you?
Nelson Cruz is 15 for 71 lifetime versus J Weaver .211, and he struck out 22 times.
That doesn't mean anything to you?

[Big Bear]

So you mean to tell me, Stanton's 2 for 21 lifetime against Teheran, bear in mind, 7 of those 21 strikeouts is meaningless?
2 for 21 with 7 strikeouts doesn't suggest anything to you.

Are we saying the 6 games Teheran started aginst Stanton, he just got lucky?

It does mean something.

It means Teheran owns Stanton.

I can't wait to fade the Braves this year but the one pitcher on the Braves I don't want to bet against is Teheran.

I'd much rather take a shot with the Marlins Tuesday with Latos vs Wood.

[stevenash]

It does mean something.

It means Teheran owns Stanton.

I can't wait to fade the Braves this year but the one pitcher on the Braves I don't want to bet against is Teheran.

I'd much rather take a shot with the Marlins Tuesday with Latos vs Wood.

I wouldn't say own, now the Nelson Cruz stat, that is complete ownage.

Hope you had the Cards, that was easy money.
Cubs gagged with RISP, and they'll strike out all year at an alarming rate.

[stevenash]

Nash been eating well the past two days. He's probably have crab legs and Budweiser tonight

Jack Daniels and Becks, and I am proud to say I am drinking responsibly.

And, if the Cards hold on, and I don't care if one believes me or not, I will be 9 an 1 for the weekend.
Nasher on a major heater right now.

"too hot, called a police and the fireman, so hot, make a dragon wanna retire man"

[kj8210]

great work Nasher!! Any leans you really like for tomorrow?

[Louisvillekid1]

[stevenash]

All lines 5D and 5D reduced juice.

PLAYING
SF with Bumgarner +125 -1.5 on the run line.
I'll play a run line when there's an elite pitcher on the road against an inferior opponent.
Collmenter literally has to match Mad-Bum pitch for pitch just to stay in this game, and hopes Goldschmidt and his pals get to the World Series hero.

Even without Pence and Panda, SF has enough bats to ding Collmenter.
Two bats Mad-Bum needs to keep at bay, Goldy and Trumbo.
The bottom of that order is soft.

*buyer beware a 3-2 or 2-1 Giants win is a loss, but I don't like laying -140 here, I could use SF in a money line parlay, but I'll take my chances here, Giants on the road though get an ninth inning at-bat, that's an advantage of betting a run line with your team on the road.

PLAYING
White Sox with Samardzia over Royals and Ventura.

Yes, Ventura throws 100 mph, however there is not much movement on the fastball, and the 20 percent strike out rate proves that.
Abreu knows what to do with cheese that does not move much, White Sox lineup is so much better now with Adam Eaton on top, if the White Sox are going to make some noise this year, and I think they will, that pest Adam Eaton leading off is going to make it happen.

Samardzia should keep the Royals bats in check.
Hey, I was the bus driver for the Royals band wagon last season, however, Samardzia is the play here with Eaton and Melke hitting in front of Abreu, and A-Ram down in the order makes for tough navigation.

BIG UNDERDOG LEAN
Mets over Washington.

Nobody is saying Colon is better than Max.
Hardly, Colon may be fat, he may be 40 years old, but one thing he knows is how to pitch.
The time to fade Washington is now, the first two weeks, they are without Rendon, and Jason Werth, and that lineup with injuries in plain old ordinary. (it really is, take a look at it)

Mets have some sticks, they are not going to win batting crowns, but Murphy is a slappy .280-.290 guy.
David Wright has regained his from, Duda is a legit 30 homer threat, the catcher is coming into his own, and the SS Flores is supposed to be the next big thing.

I can see the Metropolitans at +160 stealing the opener down there with a depleted Nat lineup.

It will take a sharp Colon and a Max mistake or two, but it's not out of the question.

Not suggesting you play it, just putting it out there.

More later, I have to do real life things now.

[thetrinity]

what line do you have on the sox, that looks good to me