Originally Posted by
EXhoosier10
Talk me out of taking this bet.
Fangraphs has them projected at 83 wins, Baseball Prospectus has them at 86. They won 77 last year. Factor out luck and sequencing and they should have won 86.5 (BP 2nd order wins).
Catcher
Last year their catcher position hit .191 for -0.6 WAR. This year they have Rene Riviera and John Jaso. Riviera is decent at framing and can hit lefty pitchers, Jaso can hit righties.
2014 to 2015 WAR change: +2 WAR
1st Base
Same this year as last. James Loney is a consistent contact hitter who gets on base and doesn't strike out. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he makes up for that by getting on base.
Change: 0 WAR
2nd Base
The lose 5 WAR contributor Ben Zobrist. This is going to hurt a bit. They replace him with Nick Franklin from Seattle. Franklin was once a top 100 prospect and while he hasn't hit in his short major league career, profiles as replacement / slightly above replacement player.
Change: -4 WAR
3rd Base
Evan Longoria is coming off his worst offensive season as a pro and earned 3.4 WAR last year. Nothing really stands out about his stats, so you have to assume he bounces back to a 5 WAR player this year. He's still only 29.
Change: +1.5 WAR
Shortstop
Asdrubal Cabrera is replacing Yunel Escobar's 0 WAR of 2014. Asdrubal has had a few down years, but he's still only 29 and projects to be above average offensively and shouldn't be much different than Yunel defensively.
Change: +1.5 WAR
Left Field
Matt Joyce and Brandon Guyer provided 3.5 WAR in LF in 2014. This year you'll have Steven Souza, Guyer, and David Dejesus playing. Should Souza falter, Guyer and Dejesus should platoon for a decent season. Maybe not the best position players, but TB is deep enough here where worst case scenario is ~ 1-2 WAR.
Change: -1 WAR
Center Field
Desmond Jennings was worth 3 WAR last year. He's 28 and remarkably consistent over the last 3 years. chalk up another 3 wins here in 2015.
Change: 0 WAR
Right Field
Kevin Kiermaier and Wil Myers combined for 4 WAR with all of it coming from Kiermaier. Kiermaier came out of nowhere and witha bit of regression should fall closer to 2 WAR as his defense should help him maintain value. RF will also have a bit of depth as mentioned in the LF portion.
Change: -1.5 WAR
Pitching
They lost price last year, but both Chris Archer and Alex Cobb solidified themselves as near ace level. Those two combined for 360 innings of 3.10 ERA ball. They picked up Drew Smyly in the Price deal and he put up a ridiculous 1.70 ERA over 50 IP last year in Tampa. Odorizzi, Bedard, and Hellickson all combined for roughly league average numbers.
In 2015, They return Archer, Cobb, Smyly, and Odorizzi. They'll also see the return of Matt Moore come June. You might not know it, but Smyly's career ERA in 328 innings is 3.26. Cobb has thrown 300 innings the lsat two years wiht a 2.80 ERA. Archer has 350 career IP with a 3.2 ERA. That's a surprisingly scary 1-3! Their bullpen is just okay after Grant Balfour imploaded on them. Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger did well enough as their closer/setup combo to end the year. The rest of their relief corp, Frieri, Jepsen, and Balfour should all be average to slightly above average.
OVERALL
Their offense lost their best player in Ben Zobrist and they are projected to be about 1 WAR worse in 2015. Their pitching should surprise, though, with an above average staff. If Matt Moore comes back healthy, they could be a top 5 overall rotation in MLB. As it stands now, they should be an above average staff pitching in the AL East.
Note that Tampa plays the NL East this year in interleague play. THe only team projected to be above average in that division is Washington. They get 4 games against the Braves, 6 against Miami, 3 against the mets, 3 against the Phillies, and 4 against Washington.
at +140 (equates to 42% breakeven), how can you lay off??