On paper, after handicapping this game, Sox are the logical play here.
But games are played on the field, not on paper, on paper yesterday, Yanks were the logical play, until the kid pitcher threw three balls over the first baseman's head, two of them underhanded yet.
Blue Jays are stumbling, losing six of their last ten, Sox closing like a freight train, hitting the snot out of the rawhide, winning 8 of their last 10, last five in a row. Crash Davis, a player on a streak has to respect the streak, right? "Bull Durham" and all that.
I know some of you like Happ, but he's a left handed meatball, with a 5 ERA (4.91) and a WH/IP ratio of over a buck and half (1.55) Angus hamburger.
Brock Holt is playing fantastic hardball all year abd has been murdering LHP as well. .339, 12 doubles in 112 LHP AB's Victorino is back, healthy and he kills LHP. Napoli too, even the jackass Gomes, and Gomes has hurt Happ in the past too. Pedroia is only .250 v. LHP but .400 off of Happ.
Boston is trotting out Jake (from State Farm) Peavy.
We all know about his 1-8 record, and loser of 8 straight (actually six, two losses were of the ND variety) however, his last three starts are what they call 'quality' starts, 3 or less ER in six or more IP's.
And I do like his K ratio too.
Breaking this game down further, Melke is 6/14 off of Jake (from State Farm) OK. OK, I'll let that die, 5 of those hits are singles 1 double. Jose Reyes, nothing much, the Peavy slayer in their line up is Adam Lind, and he's DL'ed, along with Encarncion, he's DL'ed, the Jay offense is pretty much Joey Bats, and if you keep breaking this down, Bautista hasn't really done anything in the past 6 weeks. Only 3 dingers, and they were solo homers, and those three times I suppose the pitcher said, "OK, nobody on, instead of walking you, clogging the bases, I'll pitch to you, if I get you out, great, if not, so be it, solo homer, big deal"
OK, here's the thing, Peavy is the better starter, Sox are the hotter team, ever since they got rid of PoS AJP, all they seem to do is win. Sox without AJP, and Victorino back against a decimated Jay lineup is the play.
Do you get greedy, take the road team give up a run, and take the +135, or do you bet it straight up at -120?
I'm betting the game, I'm betting the Sox, I just don't how yet.