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Boston - Detroit #5
They don't get much bigger than this one - for either side.
With the series tied 2-2 the Red Sox have a shot to head back to Fenway needing just a split of 2 home games to reach the W.S. Miss this shot, however, and they face the grim prospect of having to get past both Scherzer and Verlander back to back. They got by them the first time around - unlikely they can do that again. I believe this game is the series.
To win tonight the Red Sox will have to get back to having good, competitive ABs - to stop giving so much away at the plate. During the regular season, Boston not only scored over 50 runs more than the Tigers - they actually scored more runs on the road than the Tigers did at home. But in this series - notwithstanding one swing by Ortiz and one from Naoli - the Boston bats have been MIA. The first 3 games were ridiculous with BoSox hitters getting punched out 42 times over 27 innings. Last night, however, they finally did start to show some life - 12 hits - Ellsbury alone had of 4 them. The problem last night was the 2 for 16 w/ RISP (not to mention the Tigers' 5 run 2nd).
Have to hand it to Jim Leyland for the way he's kept his guys alive after a couple of potentially devastating setbacks - both after the Ortiz shot when he took all the responsibility and heat for letting it happen - and then again last night by putting himself in line for the criticism by scrambling the lineup following their failure to get Verlander a single run. Had he lost last night, the whole world would have called the lineup change a panic move. The media and the peanut gallery would all have been screaming, "How in hell can you bat Cabrera 2nd?" "Fire Leyland!" Jimmy knew that and his players knew it. Although he's been outmanaged at times as to the X's and O's a time or two the last few years - there's no more selfless manager in the game than Jimmy L. in terms of defending and taking the heat off his guys. That's why they love him and that's why they give him all they've got. Even Barry Bonds loved the guy and Bonds never cared about anyone - but himself.
Both starters will likely be on a shorter leash here than if it were games 1-4. This one is so critical that both managers will be pulling the trigger to the pen at the first sign of potential problems. It's not the 7th game of the W.S. - but it's getting close. It may well be decided by the bullpens. And if it does go down that way I think it will play to Boston's advantage.
Boston has to feel good about having their #1 out there for this one. Even though it's a Lester/Sanchez rematch of game 1 which Boston lost - Lester pitched well - 1 run on 6 hits into the 7th. He's FB 93, Cutter, CU, CH - no SL - He tries to get ahead with the 4seamer and cutter - then it's CU for the LHers and CHs to RHers. He avgs about 7.5 Ks and 2.8 BBs per 9. He's still basically a ground ball pitcher but not to the degree he once was. Like a lot of guys, he gets a little more vulnerable the 2nd and esp the 3rd time thru the L/U - we saw that in game 1 - again the pen better be ready. He has also been a lot better at Fenway than on the road. Another downside for him is that he's been in the AL long enough that the Detroit L/U is very familiar with him. Everyone is careful w/ Cabrera of course - but Lester has to be especially so - he's walked Miggy 6 times career - but not enough - Cabrera is 11 for 21 vs Lester with 1 Yatze and 2 doubles.
As Sanchez spent most of his career in the NL - the Red Sox were not nearly as familiar with him - and it sure showed in gm 1. The fact that they now know what he does should give them a much better shot in this one. He's FB, also about 93, SL CH and a few CUs - good movement on FB - vicious SL- devastating CH. As I was really disappointed in the Cardinals not making adjustments on Greinke and laying off the off speed curve - esp when Adams struck out on that CU in the dirt with bases loaded 0 out in the 1st yesterday - I think we have a similar adjustment situation tonight. Sanchez throws a ton of pitches out of the zone. You have to have plate discipline to beat him. If you just go up there wailing you're dead. Everyone talked about his 12 Ks in gm 1 but he also walked 6 guys. I think Boston can get him if they work to get ahead in counts. He has also been a little vulnerable 1st inning - his worst inning on the year. He gets better as he goes along as the 6th inn has been his best. The other thing about him - although he's tough on all hitters - he's really tough on RHers (.207). Farrell needs to get his LHers in there against him. Bottom line - plate discipline - good ABs - LHers come thru against Sanchez.
Boston/Lester First 5 +104 for 2 Units
Boston Full Game +104 for 2 Units
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Originally Posted by pattymayo
