1. 10-16-13 07:05 PM #1
    BeatingBaseball
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    Boston - Detroit #4

    Boston/Peavy +108 for 2 Units
    Boston/Peavy +105 for 2 Units

    Everything said about JP going into his start in gm4 of the ALDS vs TB a week ago still applies. This is exactly what Boston brought him in for - to win big road games in October. An extra not so little edge for him here is that having spent this and prior seasons in the AL Central w/ the WSox he is very well versed on the Tigers L/U. Of course the Tigers know him as well, but there is no secret to the way JP goes about his work.

    As to Fister - his FB at 89 or barely touching 90 should look quite pedestrian compared to what the BoSox have seen in the first 3 games. And he's very aggressive with it over the plate early in the count trying to get his ground balls. If he doesn't keep it down there may be more action along the lines of the Ortiz and Napoli shots that won games 2 and 3 for Boston.

    Based on the numbers in terms of career matchups - it looks like Shane Victorino (4 for 5 with a jack vs Fister this year) may be a key hitter tonight for Boston as he has hit Fister in the past. As to JP he'll likely be especially careful with Tori Hunter (7 for 16 with a bomb vs Peavy career).

    Tigers must have a hard time believing they are down 2 games to 1 given the outings they've had from their 1-2-3 starters - but they are just not swinging the bats (5 for 33 - .152- w/ RISP in this series). The Ks of Cabrera and Fielder with a runner at 3rd bottom 8 of gm 3's 1-0 loss had to be a shock to their system. Hoping for some carry over there.
    Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 10-16-13 at 09:11 PM.
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  2. 10-16-13 08:49 PM #2
    drfunkmaster
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    peavy sucks
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  3. 10-16-13 09:05 PM #3
    BeatingBaseball
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    Tonight he did - and I'm sure he would be the first one to agree with you. But the guy has been money for me his entire career going back to his Cy Young year in San Diego. If I were to lose 10 more plays like tonight with him I would still be money ahead. It is very likely I will be betting him again in the World Series soon. Just a heads up as you may want to load up the other way. I do appreciate your assessment but it would have been much more impressive if you made it prior to seeing the 5 runs go up on the board (and I'm sure you realize that if Pedroia turns that double play it would have been 1 run and not 5). BTW - there's a guy on this forum who says Yadi Molina sucks also. You may want to consider tailing his plays because he clearly knows his stuff.
    Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 10-16-13 at 09:09 PM.
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  4. 10-16-13 09:12 PM #4
    jessetk313
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    I don't know what you are talking about BeatingBAseball (I'm speaking in reference to the Sox being in the World Series soon) because the Detroit Tigers pitching has absolutely manhandled the "best" lineup in all of baseball for 4 straight games now. If it wasn't for a Tiger bullpen meltdown this series would be 3-1 and the Tigers had numerous chances to win game 3 with Verlander on the mound so I could argue sweep. So to say today would have been a different game if Pedroia turns a double play is a mute point because there is no reason that Boston wins game 2. Regardless the Tigers win tonight if he turns the double play or not. Good teams win in this spot here and that is what Detroit is on their way to doing. I really think that the Tigers may win this series.
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  5. 10-16-13 09:34 PM #5
    BeatingBaseball
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    Didn't say it would have been a different game or outcome if Pedroia turns that double play. Only said that the inning would had been one run and not 5 - an undeniably true statement as the inning would have ended on the double play. As to "If it wasn't for....this series would be 3-1...I could argue a sweep" - you can of course go back and forth on that stuff all day. And as to "Good teams" - "Good teams" win when they have a 4 run lead going to the 8th. They also win when their ace comes through and only gives the opposition 1 run. I understand and respect your being an avid Tigers fan - nothing wrong with that - but being a fan and being a long term winning sports bettor are of course two different things. As they say - fans bet teams - winning sports bettors bet numbers.
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  6. 10-16-13 09:50 PM #6
    Itsamazing777
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    And the numbers showed that the tigers have faced peavy for years with the white sox and know him well..... But he has done well at times against them so could have gone either way. Good luck next pick
    Last edited by Itsamazing777; 10-16-13 at 09:55 PM.
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  7. 10-16-13 10:09 PM #7
    BeatingBaseball
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    Thanks its. And you're right - it can always go the other way. All that matters is our assessment of the actual mathematical expectation of it doing so and how that number relates to the price on the board. When the number on the board is right - there is no smart side. And the dirty little secret of betting sports is that the number is right far more often than most of us are willing to admit.
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  8. 10-16-13 10:20 PM #8
    Itsamazing777
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  9. 10-16-13 10:51 PM #9
    Barnes & Whine
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    Peavey always loses.
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  10. 10-17-13 07:26 AM #10
    44 Mag
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    12 post season starts, 4/5 with a 4.83 ERA, before last nights beating
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  11. 10-17-13 08:23 AM #11
    Regul8er
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    Sorry BeatingBaseball....appears you may have thought just a little too hard yesterday.

    Shoulda gone with the home teams with their backs against the wall. Get em back today with Detroit!
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  12. 10-17-13 08:55 AM #12
    BeatingBaseball
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    Right Reg. Shoulda. In fact someone could have put down 10 to 1 that both home teams would win yesterday and they would look like a genius this morning. All you need and all everybody wants is today's winner. Damn the price - doesn't matter as long as you win the game, right? The only problem with that thinking of course is you'll never survive doing it.
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  13. 10-17-13 09:01 AM #13
    Regul8er
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    Just bustin your balls a bit.........but seriously, back the Tigers tonight, the the first line came out, and the price is definately right! -107 on betonline. Can't beat that with Anibal on the hump at home, and an offense just salavating to get back in the box.
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  14. 10-17-13 09:10 AM #14
    BeatingBaseball
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    I respect your take on it, Reg. Thanks. Still have some things to look at on this one. No question the Tigers are amped up to swing the bats again after last night's revival.
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  15. 10-17-13 09:27 AM #15
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Regul8er View Post
    Just bustin your balls a bit.........but seriously, back the Tigers tonight, the the first line came out, and the price is definately right! -107 on betonline. Can't beat that with Anibal on the hump at home, and an offense just salavating to get back in the box.
    I don't trust Anibal.
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  16. 10-17-13 09:43 AM #16
    Regul8er
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    I mean he's done it all year NC. He had a clunker vs the A's in the first round, but followed it up with a gem in Game 1 this series. Sure he issued a handful of walks, but worked around it without any damage.
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  17. 10-17-13 03:49 PM #17
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeatingBaseball View Post
    Boston/Peavy +108 for 2 Units
    Boston/Peavy +105 for 2 Units

    Everything said about JP going into his start in gm4 of the ALDS vs TB a week ago still applies. This is exactly what Boston brought him in for - to win big road games in October. An extra not so little edge for him here is that having spent this and prior seasons in the AL Central w/ the WSox he is very well versed on the Tigers L/U. Of course the Tigers know him as well, but there is no secret to the way JP goes about his work.

    As to Fister - his FB at 89 or barely touching 90 should look quite pedestrian compared to what the BoSox have seen in the first 3 games. And he's very aggressive with it over the plate early in the count trying to get his ground balls. If he doesn't keep it down there may be more action along the lines of the Ortiz and Napoli shots that won games 2 and 3 for Boston.

    Based on the numbers in terms of career matchups - it looks like Shane Victorino (4 for 5 with a jack vs Fister this year) may be a key hitter tonight for Boston as he has hit Fister in the past. As to JP he'll likely be especially careful with Tori Hunter (7 for 16 with a bomb vs Peavy career).

    Tigers must have a hard time believing they are down 2 games to 1 given the outings they've had from their 1-2-3 starters - but they are just not swinging the bats (5 for 33 - .152- w/ RISP in this series). The Ks of Cabrera and Fielder with a runner at 3rd bottom 8 of gm 3's 1-0 loss had to be a shock to their system. Hoping for some carry over there.





    You have nice write-ups.

    Not going to say which side was the best now in hindsight given the price, but I was surprised by Peavy giving up those runs in the second, remember Pedroia turns that double play he gets out of that inning w/ only 1 run, it was however a great time to buy Boston live +5 @ 5dimes.eu.

    I'm positive Peavy will adjust, he was not hitting his spots low, and even when he was the Tigers were all over it.
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  18. 10-17-13 04:35 PM #18
    Alien Lanes
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    Leaning Boston as well
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