Yesterday was a beautiful thing - did not lose a bet all day with 5 and 9 +money plays on both Boston and St. Louis. The only way it could have been better is if Napoli's shot had come in the First Five. But hey...
The pricing on Greinke today makes this one an easy call. He's on the board at -170.
Q: Who is going to lay that price on this game?
A: Someone who is one or more of the following -
1 - a pure fan of the Dodgers and/or Greinke
2 - one who has not been watching this series
3 - one who has no understanding or respect for the mathematics of betting baseball.
Not saying LAD can't or won't win this game, Bad bets win all the time.
They just don't win often enough to make the books anything but rich.
Laying -170 means a break even mark of 63%. Can any objective person who knows anything about the game of baseball and who has watched this series believe that these Cardinals are less than a .370 ball club in this spot?
Given the current team dynamics, the Cards' momentum here, their motivation to end this today and avoid facing LHers Kershaw and Ryu once again (STL not unaware they were 19-23 vs LH starters reg season), the fact that Ramirez and Ethier are severely compromised, plus the fact the Cards' L/U is coming off seeing Greinke just 4 days ago (and their ABs against him in gm 1 reveal a glaring pattern just screaming for a key approach adjustment you can expect the Cards hitters to make) -
I have the Cards with no worse than a .500 chance to win this game.
Getting them at +160 for the game and +155 First Five represents great value to say the least.
As said before gm 1 - Greinke's vulnerability is LH hitters - and it was the LHers who hurt him in that one as he walked the LH Carpenter with 2 out and a man on and then gave up the kill shot to Beltran who hit the 2-run double from the left side. You can again expect the LHers to have the best shot to end his season today. And they should be in even better position to do some damage in this one because as they looked at the video they had to note that every hard hit ball off him all night was off his sinker - his 2seam FB - and all his successes were rooted in their contact or lack thereof with his great off speed stuff. Have to believe they are going to be spitting on a lot of curves and changes today and looking to hit the FB. To win today he is going to need total command of that slow CU and CH and be able to throw them for good pitcher's strikes on any count. He is certainly capable of doing so - and if he does it he deserves a tip of the cap - but you have to like the Cards' chances.
STL +160 for 2 Units
STL +155 First Five for 2 Units
Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 10-16-13 at 10:20 PM.
Cards sure had their chances today - esp for the 5 inning money - but the 2 double plays hit by Yadi and a couple of mistakes over the plate by Kelly and co. proved fatal. The Cards just seem determined to do this (advance to the W.S.) the hard way.
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Cards - Dodgers #5
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