[BeatingBaseball]

STL 2 Units vs Geinke +115 or better
STL 1 Unit First Five vs Greinke +10 or better
STL 1/2 Unit Alt. RL

It's not that I don't think the Dodgers are good. No question about that (they should be with a $200 mil payroll). I just think they're over priced. Originally thought I'd be taking the series price on the Cards - but with Allen Craig out I'm going to take it game by game. STL was the highest scoring team in the NL this year at 4.8 per game and their lineup was lights out with men in scoring position (.330 BA) - but Craig was such a big part of that scoring dynamic that his absence is going to be a big headwind for the RedBirds in this series. We saw that impact in the Division Series - STL didn't score much vs PITT without him - hit only .185 w/ RISP over the 5 gms - they survived on the long ball alone.

Not surprisingly, both LAD and STL are two of the best pitching staffs in the league - both under 3.45 staff ERAs and 1.25 WHIPs. The two clubs played each other very close this year - the season series went to the Dodgers 4-3 with total scoring LA by 30-27. That record is a little (maybe more than a little) misleading, however, because when the Dodgers went into Busch and took 3 of 4 in August it was during the period when Yadi Molina was out with injury, The Cards are of course a different (far better) club both offensively and defensively when Molina is at and behind the dish. The big edge for LAD pitching-wise Is of course the 1-2 at the top of the rotation - but I believe STL ace Wainwright is at least as good as either one right now.

One thing not to be discounted in this series is the great recent history of the Cardinals in post season play. They are at their best in October. With this series they will have appeared in 3 of the last 4 NLCS and if they advance to the WS it will be for the 4th time in the last 10 yrs. The Cardinal Way of effort and fundamental execution has prevailed over so many teams of apparently superior talent the last few yrs - it's gotten to the point where the BirdsOnTheBat and Busch Stadium post season mystique is becoming a formidable opponent in and of itself. Also interesting here is the contrast between the parochial, home grown Cards organizational guys vs the Dodgers check book acquired stars (yet ironically with little post season experience). Plus you have the Cardinals great fans /baseball atmosphere vs the LA/Hollywood sushi set. LAD was a great road team this year but they play a ton of their games vs the NL West where they have a lot of their own fans in the crowd - that won't be the case at Busch Stadium - these tickets are strongly held by the Cardinal Nation. STL playoff baseball is intense - loud - it can be hard to communicate on the field - it's not an easy place for a visiting club to play - it's a bigger STL edge than your average home field.

Game 1 is going to be imperative for the Cards in this series - even more so than usual. If they lose it they'll be looking at Kershaw in game 2 and a very possible early demise in the series. They can't go to LA down 0-2. They have to go West at least 1-1 and tonight is their best shot to do so. If they're at 1-1 after two games - although they will have lost the home field edge - they'll be playing a 5gm series with Wainwright out there for the first and last of those 5 - that's not bad - they would be very much alive. Of course, if they get by both Greinke and Kershaw in gms 1&2 before Wainwright even gets out there - it's series over - their way. It all starts with beating Greinke.

Greinke is of course a top tier starter. He's a 5 pitch guy and every offering is solid. He's only low 90s and doesn't throw a lot of SLs but he's all over the place changing speeds (his curve gets down in low 70s) and he can throw anything for a strike on any count. He can also swing the bat himself. You don't get that easy pitcher AB inning when he (or Kershaw) is in the L/U. So how do you beat him? - Greinke's primary vulnerability on the mound is LH hitters, Cards are going to need Carpenter, Beltran and Adams to come through. The good news is that the Cards L/U is at their best vs RH starters (but a losing record vs LH starters - read Kershaw). I was hoping and expecting Beltran to have a good history against Greinke, but I unfortunately see not so. There will be a lot on Beltran's shoulders this whole series with Craig out of there - but he's the kind of guy who can handle it. What the Cards will need is some men on base when the big LHers come up so Greinke has to go after them.

As to Joe Kelly - he's FB, SL with some CHs and a few CUs - he actually throws harder than Greinke but he doesn't have swing/miss stuff and doesn't have Greinke's change of speed differential. Kelly pitches to contact and lives more on location. The best thing he has going for him here is that the LA hitters are very aggressive and they will chase if you set it up well. They don't have the plate discipline of the Cards. If he's locating and working smart they may often get themselves out. He'll of course have to be very careful with Hanley Ramirez - not let him beat him - Ramirez is the Cabrera in the Dodgers L/U right now.

Regarding the bullpens I give it to STL - mainly because the Dodgers don't have much until they get to setup/close with Wilson/Jansen. Belsario gets most of his outs off the plate. He can have problems walking guys when he faces a team with good plate discipline.

Regarding the fundamentals of base running, team defense and execution - all STL. Puig may be a great athlete but he makes a lot of mistakes along those lines. Against the Cardinals you pay for mistakes.

You can be sure it's going to be interesting for Honeycutt and McGwire - returning to STL for post season ball.

Hope to see the RedBirds get this one, have a free shot at Kershaw and maybe take them out.

Won't even mind missing the Series play if that happens.

[No coincidences]

Good luck, BB. Great write-up as per usual.

I'm on the Cards as well. Let's cash.

[ridersonthestorm]

Nice, interesting summary.

Although Kelly seems to be balancing on the verge of being roasted and served.

Ouch, Greinke has joined in.

[BeatingBaseball]

Of the two starting pitchers, it was Greinke who was supposed to be the hitter - but Kelly's hit with 2 out and the bases empty in the 3rd turned out to be as big as any all night. Carpenter followed with some great plate discipline and a walk as Greinke was trying to be careful with the LHer despite his current slump - then the big guy - also from the left side - did the damage for the only 2 runs off Greinke over his 8 innings. Some great pitching on both sides tonight. LAD swung at far more pitches off the plate, however, and The Cardinal Way prevailed again. I expect the Dodgers to be even a little more tight/anxious/aggressive at the plate tonight after a tough loss and looking at the possibility of going down 2 games to 0. If the Cards L/U can do any business vs Kershaw, the RedBirds have a chance for the kill shot - 2-0 over the Greinke and Kershaw outings without Wainwright even taking the mound.