[stevenash]

Vegas showing Price a little too much respect.
I would have set the line the other way, Texas -115, or even man to man 'pick.
Over looks tempting as well, at first glance, I like the over, and Texas, let's break it down together, shall we.

Mon 9/30		981 Tampa Bay Rays D Price - L	-1½ +135-2½ +205-1 +104	-117 Listed	o7½ -105o7 -140o8 +115o6½ -174o8½ +131
8:05PM		982 Texas Rangers M Perez - L	+1½ -155+2½ -245+1 -124	+107 Listed	u7½ -115u7 +120u8 -135u6½ +154u8½ -151

Both teams finished 91-71 on the season.

Texas at home is a good, not great 46-35 (.567) great would be (.667)
Rays away are a good, not great 40-41 (.493) great would be (>.500)

David Price: TB Starter
Rock solid across the board numbers this season:

9-8 overall 3.39 ERA, 1.11. WH/IP ratio pitching in the big stick AL East division is outstading
Great K ratio 147/177 IP stingy on the walks allowed, (26) and stingy on the home runs allowed (16) 1 allowed every 11 innings pitched.

Price on the road 2013: Rock solid
7-3 3.21 ERA 1.12 WH/IP ratio

Last 4 starts
Good, not great.
Very sharp against the Yankees last start out
7 IP 6H 8K 2ER W

Shaky against Baltimore 9/20
5IP 9H 4K 2ER ND

Shaky against Minnesota 9/15
6IP 6H 4K 2ER (3BB) ND-Loss (as a -220 favorite)

Outstanding in a 2-0 loss to Boston 9/10
Not his fault he got no support
8IP 3H 2ER 9K ND-Loss

Texas v. Price
Rangers lifetime are 4-1 against Price:
5.98 ERA (not good)

Andrus 6-17 .353, with 5 BB's makes OBA sky high .522
Beltre 8-23 .348 with a home run
Cruz *is eligible for this game* 6-12 .500 2 homers, with 2 walks makes 0BA .577
Rios 10-23 .435, 2 homers, with 2 walks makes OBA .500

Overall: Not good

Hitter	AVG	AB	HR	RBI
Jim Adduci	-	-	-	-
Elvis Andrus	.353	17	0	4
Jeff Baker	-	-	-	-
Adrian Beltre	.348	23	1	4
Engel Beltre	-	-	-	-
Lance Berkman	-	-	-	-
Joey Butler	-	-	-	-
Robinson Chirinos	-	-	-	-
Nelson Cruz	.500	12	2	4
Craig Gentry	.222	9	0	0
Ian Kinsler	.167	18	1	2
Leonys Martin	-	-	-	-
Mitch Moreland	-	-	-	-
David Murphy	.200	10	0	2
A Pierzynski.J.	.200	10	0	0
Jurickson Profar	-	-	-	-
Alex Rios	.500	16	2	7
Adam Rosales	.200	5	0	0
Geovany Soto	.500	2	0	0

Texas Starter: Martin Perez (L)

First full year in the show
Across the board numbers: OK

10-5 on the season in 19 games, all starts.
ERA 3.55 WH/IP ratio 1.34 (League averages are 3.99 and 1.32)

Not enough data versus TB hitters.

Ron Washington has said all hands on deck, as Garza and Ogundo are available out of the pen.

Even though Price is the better of the two starters, I am fading him, as Cruz make that dangerous line up even more dangerous, couple that with the fact Texas smacks Price hard.

Texas with the Garza and Ogundo in the pen is a plus, TB does not have enough fire power to go toe to toe with Texas bats, and I don't like the fact Price has a penchant for getting into and out of trouble.

Play here is Texas PLUS money, and the over 7.5

Normal size bet 2*

[Ratpack]

texas wins price hasnt been price recently and the rays havent played as well the last week and texas is hot right now with their offense

[BigDeem5]

Layoff. Tribe Wed

[stevenash]

texas wins price hasnt been price recently and the rays havent played as well the last week and texas is hot right now with their offense

Agreed, and Perez has been razor sharp in his last ten, 7-2 record, 3.26 can not be overlooked.

TB does hit left handing pitching well though (so does Texas)

[stevenash]

Layoff. Tribe Wed

Who's getting the rock, Salazar or Kluber?

[whtsox13]

TEX -1, $450 to win $739. Over 7, $350 to win $250. Good luck all!

[stikymess]

Nice write up Steve,

this time of the year Ron Washington always seems to be out managed, but can't resist Texas at home, plus money.

Good luck.

[Smoke]

Stevie good write up

Stevie you gave me goosebumps

Stevie dont fukk me pally

[stevenash]

TEX -1, $450 to win $739. Over 7, $350 to win $250. Good luck all!

Ticket	Accepted Date	Risk	To Win	Status	Wager
199355421-1	9/30/13 12:44pm	$100.00	$210.00	Pending	9/30/13 8:05pm MLB Baseball 982 Texas Rangers -1½ +210* vs Tampa Bay Rays (D Price - L must Start M Perez - L must Start)
199355353-1	9/30/13 12:43pm	$100.00	$295.00	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	9/30/13 8:40pm NFL Football 225 Miami Dolphins/New Orleans Saints Under 48 -110*
				Pending	9/30/13 8:05pm MLB Baseball 982 Texas Rangers +107* vs Tampa Bay Rays (D Price - L must Start M Perez - L must Start)

[pavyracer]

I'm on Texas. Why? Cause you don't mess with Texas in a one game playoff at home.

[stevenash]

I'm on Texas. Why? Cause you don't mess with Texas in a one game playoff at home.

See? We can get along after all. lol

It's by no means a lock, but it's (IMO) the correct play.

Best of luck.

[wagerjunkie]

Nash I'm on over too but first five. My main concern about it though is neither team has faced either starter this year. Yes Texas has had big time success against price in the past but this will be their first look at him this year. Same goes for rays with Perez. That always gives pitcher advantage which worries. Did you factor that in(I'm sure u did) and does it bother u?

[stevenash]

Nash I'm on over too but first five. My main concern about it though is neither team has faced either starter this year. Yes Texas has had big time success against price in the past but this will be their first look at him this year. Same goes for rays with Perez. That always gives pitcher advantage which worries. Did you factor that in(I'm sure u did) and does it bother u?

Factored in, and does not bother me.
The first five can beat Price in different ways.
Andrus walks, steals second, scores on on single is one way.
Kinsler can rope a double at any time, or even go yard.
Rios and Beltre are bombers, and Nelson Cruz is back.

Don't forget, AJP has a good stick too.

[innovation]

Getting plus money on Ron Washington to make amends for where he put his club.....I'll pass.

Look for Tampa to score first and watch the Rangers pressure mount.

Base on Balls give me tampa.

[EzekielMowatt]

Good write up. Already had action play on TX. Price not in real good form.

[docKT]

nice write-up.

[CHIB]

Rangers haven't seen Price this year. This is a really big spot for him. Career-defining game. We'll see what this kid is really about.

[stevenash]

nice write-up.

Thanks

[PAYTON20]

Great game analysis Nasher

I'm also on Texas. Agree about the opening line being off

[lakerboy]

I'm on Texas. Why? Cause you don't mess with Texas in a one game playoff at home.

lmao didnt the orioles win in a one game playoff just last year in texas?

[Smoke]

Good write up nashy nash

[Fernburn74]

Texas at -110 now.

[Darkside Magick]

Tampa -1.5 (150) Book it!

[Big Bear]

Tampa -1.5 (150) Book it!

Why so much love for the Rays?

[ballstar25]

^ darkside is sharp TB ROLLLLLS

[Darkside Magick]

Why so much love for the Rays?

This is easy...Texas going to be tight basically playing for Washington job...Maddon better in game manager than wash. Texas rookie pitcher going to give up run...he not Danny Salazar....public pounding Texas....bookies knew that public would pound Down the line so they can snatched the cash when Tb win.

-1.5 all day

[ShogunRua]

I'm on the Rangers too but it's strictly a homer bet. I would like to add though that people are putting a bit too much weight into Nelly Cruz playing tonight. Guy hasn't played in a MLB game in months, I highly doubt he has any kind of impact (although I hope he does).

Go Rangers!

[2daBank]

hate going against nasher but despite Price struggles w tex i still have to take him -107 vs a rookie in a must win.. plus i have the added advantage of one of best managers vs a idiot..

[stevenash]

@Darkside
That's one way of looking at it.
If the kid gets out of the first inning clean, I can see a Texas 2 spot in the bottom of the first.
Texas hitters do not fear Price.

[2daBank]

@Darkside
That's one way of looking at it.
If the kid gets out of the first inning clean, I can see a Texas 2 spot in the bottom of the first.
Texas hitters do not fear Price.

1st inning def huge for both guys..

[TonyTall]

has cruz been hitting in the minors. pivotal that he is

[stevenash]

hate going against nasher but despite Price struggles w tex i still have to take him -107 vs a rookie in a must win.. plus i have the added advantage of one of best managers vs a idiot..

All good, I wish you good luck.
This game will not make or break my roll.
Hardly.
I respect everybody's reasons why they are on TB

[2daBank]

has cruz been hitting in the minors. pivotal that he is

he actually been playing in independent league or some shit..

[2daBank]

All good, I wish you good luck.
This game will not make or break my roll.
Hardly.
I respect everybody's reasons why they are on TB

no doubt,, way more of a degen junkie bet than me unloading on tb.. gl to you as well brother..

[TonyTall]

he actually been playing in independent league or some shit..

well hopefully hes seen some 93ish fastballs lately