[stevenash]

I can hear some of you know "but Nashy, aren't you riding in front of the Cardinal bus this season, didn't you say the Cards are the team to beat"?

Yes, I am, and still am, however, Lannan and his Phils match up very well in this spot.
Westbrook is the very type of hitter Phils hit well. Westbrook has a very good ERA this season (2.88) but let's not lose sight of the fact his lifetime ERA is 4.23. Westbrook's WH/IP ratio however is a poor 1.40, which is his lifetime ratio (1.39) and has one of the worse strikeout to IP ratio's in the game.

Relies on defense to get all his outs, is a contact out pitcher, and Phils have a history of making contact off of Jake.
Overall the Phils hit .304 lifetime off of Westbrook, 42 for 138, the whole Philly infield smacks Jake around hard, Jimmy Rollins is 8 for 18 .444. 4 for 11 .364, and Michael Young, is 11 for 29 .379 lifetime, and Chase Utley is 4 for 11 as well.

Michael Young was put on this planet to bat against Jake Westbrook type ptichers, loves pitchers like him.
Young has over 2,300 career base hits pretty off of control pitchers, Young has a lifetime .301 batting average across 14 years. Michael Young wakes up in the morning drooling over the fact that he is going to get 4 turns at bat against a control pitcher. It would not shock me if Young goes 3 for 4 tonight. I don't know why Young doesn't get any love, one of the most underrated hitter in the game today.

OK, enough of the Young love fest, the point being, Phils have demonstrated in the past they ding Westbrook.

Let's talk Philly starter tonight John Lannan, making his tenth start of the season tonight, ERA after nine starts. 3.76 good, not great, WH/IP ratio 1.27, tad better than league average, good, not great.
Lannan is what he is, a good middle of the rotation guy.
However, Cards only hit .232 off of Lannan, and the *only* hitter that hurts Lannan is Holliday, who is 6 for 17, take away that bat, (he's hurt, not playing) Cards lineup struggles. Team batting average goes to around .196 now.

Let's talk Lannan's last two starts, they were stellar, OK, they were against the underachieving Nats, and the weak ass Chi-Sox, but you can't argue with this.

Back to back 4 hit, 8 inning gems.

REGULAR SEASON GAMES THROUGH JULY 23, 2013															YEAR TO DATE
DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	Pit	BF	GSc	Dec.	Rel.	ERA
Jul 13	vs CHW	W 2-1	8.0	4	1	1	0	1	3	17	10	90	31	72	-	-	3.76
Jul 8	vs WSH	W 3-2	8.0	4	0	0	0	2	4	16	7	109	29	76	W(2-3)	-	4.23

Love the way Lannan and the Phils set up and match up against St. Louis and Westbrook tonight.
My take is the -165 on Westbrook and St. Louis is way out of line, way over inflated. Oh no, Nashy is going to throw around the 'v' word, but there is a ton, a shit load of ton of value with Philly tonight.

I like the barking doggy tonight, to bark and bite.

PHILS at a very, very generous +155 for me




Jimmy Rollins SS
Michael Young 3B
Chase Utley 2B
Delmon Young RF
Darin Ruf 1B
Laynce Nix LF
John Mayberry CF
Carlos Ruiz C
(John Lannan)



Matt Carpenter 2B
Shane Robinson CF
Carlos Beltran RF
Allen Craig LF
Yadier Molina C
David Freese 3B
Matt Adams 1B
Pete Kozma SS
(Jake Westbrook)

[SlickRick1382]

Like the write up bud. Good Luck....

Originally I was on it for a half unit (overnight) but saw some other people's opinions, whom I respect, on them as well so upped it to a full unit as well. I agree that there is value on them tonight especially at that number

Best of luck ....

[TheMLBKing]

I just hope the cards win tomorrow

[mrginandtonic]

Thanks for the write up. And the line is moving that direction too.

[Ralphie Halves]

Cards have historically had issues hitting shit throwing lefties. Dates back to the 90s.

[stevenash]

I just hope the cards win tomorrow

They should get to Kendrick for four runs, I like it, but, you will probably have to lay 1.70 (or better)
Holliday doesn't hit Kyle, but that's a moot point, Freese is .444, Beltran has had success off of the Phil starter tomorrow too.

5-1 Cards, under may be worth a looky too.

[Smoke]

I doubted you yesterday

I shall pound you today no homo

[stevenash]

Thanks for the write up. And the line is moving that direction too.

+155 is still out there

188218161-1

7/24/13 5:33pm

$120.00

$186.00

Pending

7/24/13 8:15pm MLB Baseball 907 Philadelphia Phillies +155* vs St. Louis Cardinals (J Lannan - L must Start J Westbrook - R must Start)

[stevenash]

I doubted you yesterday

I shall pound you today no homo

No individual ball game is a sure thing, but the math says Phils are the play.
Good luck Smokey

[Louisvillekid1]

already on this, nice...

[You mad bro]

Had this last night at+160 .. Put my niece's brand new Barbie doll on ths bad boy

[stevenash]

Had this last night at+160 .. Put my niece's brand new Barbie doll on ths bad boy

Oh no you did int

[SteelRain]

It's at +150 at Pinny now, I think it will close at +140 by game time. Public is 32%/68% Phillies/Cards respectively and the line is moving in the Phillies favour which is a very good sign imo. My only concern is that the Phillies bats have cooled lately and are in offensive slump.

So I'm on this as well and I'm also on the braves for -135.

[stevenash]

It's at +150 at Pinny now, I think it will close at +140 by game time. Public is 32%/68% Phillies/Cards respectively and the line is moving in the Phillies favour which is a very good sign imo. My only concern is that the Phillies bats have cooled lately and are in offensive slump.

So I'm on this as well and I'm also on the braves for -135.

Good luck

[Big Bear]

2dabank would be on this one too.

He always says Cardinals have trouble against soft tossing south paws

[You mad bro]

Oh no you did int

Yeh I figure if I win I can buy her another one .. If I lose ill blame it on her mother

[GimpedMaster]

When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Road team as a Underdog - Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 - Last 5 years - Allowed 4 runs or more AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog

3-8

When ST LOUIS team played as a -160 to -180 home Favorite vs NL - Total is between 8.5 to 9.0

31-7

Cards are the clear play here.

[GimpedMaster]

Also:

Lannan is 1-2 on the Road this year with a 5.49 ERA.

Westbrook is 4-0 at home this year with a 0.76 ERA.

[Giroux]

Phils are in the midst of a 2-8 type run...be careful. They went 7-3 before the break, they will come back.

[stevenash]

@Gimped
Good luck on the Card paly, it's all good.
I still say Philly is a terrific spot play underdog tonight.
Best of luck again.

[TheMLBKing]

They should get to Kendrick for four runs, I like it, but, you will probably have to lay 1.70 (or better)
Holliday doesn't hit Kyle, but that's a moot point, Freese is .444, Beltran has had success off of the Phil starter tomorrow too.

5-1 Cards, under may be worth a looky too.

yeah im not laying juice I just need cards to win this series to complete a nice parlay

[Dom177]

Good luck Nash. Lannan Away OBP .393/WHIP 1.68...Westbrook Home OBP .272/WHIP .96. First one to score 3 runs will win, can the Phillies score 3 tonight at all?

[Aye J Mac]

Brown = concussion

[GimpedMaster]

@Gimped
Good luck on the Card paly, it's all good.
I still say Philly is a terrific spot play underdog tonight.
Best of luck again.

Sorry I was in a rush to post and go talk to a neighbor so I couldn't interject my usual humor and sarcasm. Didn't mean to come off as rude.

Phils still have plenty of talent on that roster and like Ralphie mentioned, Cards often have mysterious issues hitting lefties who are otherwise hittable to other teams.

Good luck.

[stevenash]

Sorry I was in a rush to post and go talk to a neighbor so I couldn't interject my usual humor and sarcasm. Didn't mean to come off as rude.

Phils still have plenty of talent on that roster and like Ralphie mentioned, Cards often have mysterious issues hitting lefties who are otherwise hittable to other teams.

Good luck.

Did not come off rude at all.
I appreciate all opposing points of views.
All good.

[TheMLBKing]

bomb brown out of tonight's lineup

[stevenash]

^
Delmon Young will scoop up those RBI's

[ThaTopMoron]

Phillies forgot to bring some bats. They seem to do this a lot... c'mon Utley!

[Jayvegas420]

Trouble

[stevenash]

^
This one is done, Westbrook in charge tonight.
Can't win all of them, win streak of mine ends at 6 straight, all streaks hot and cold must end.
This streak has ended, to all that tailed, sorry, we'll get it back.

[Louisvillekid1]

Coming from phillies fan, this team is brutal too watch every night... Still a lot of baseball left, nashy no need to ever apologize...

the write up reasoning is all we care about, it's the main reason I get hardly any trolls

[Giroux]

Another Phillie fan here....as I posted before, this team is in the middle of a brutal run...bet them in a month or so when they are 10+ games under 500...

[NJN86]

3rd Philly fan posting here... Have to agree with the above 2 posters. This team is terrible. Looks much better on paper but they play really stupid ball

[Jayvegas420]

So, how is that supposed to make Jays fans feel?

[Smoke]

Good value on phils tonightI