1. #1
    easyliving
    easyliving's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-25-12
    Posts: 8,876
    Betpoints: 11

    Fade Alert Jeff Locke

    6-1 with a 2.01 ERA. He also benefits from pitching his home games at PNC park. However no way is this as good as his numbers suggest and he is due for some regression. Starting tomorrow with the Seattle Mariners I will start fading him and will likely fade him until the all star break as books are likely to adjust their lines as he likely is a big public bet at this point.With some patience this fade should be profitable.

    game 1: Mariners+111

  2. #2
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Couldn't agree more. I might hammer Seattle tomorrow night; hate Saunders, but his home numbers are nothing to scoff at.

  3. #3
    Guinser
    Guinser's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-04-10
    Posts: 461
    Betpoints: 48

    Bad decision..wrong team/pitcher to fade atm. I wouldn't even bet mariners tomorrow against gomez with the king that offense is super amenic

  4. #4
    El Nino
    October 2014 POTM
    El Nino's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-03-12
    Posts: 18,426
    Betpoints: 1868

    Brock loves Saunders at home. Factor that into your models

  5. #5
    Ghenghis Kahn
    Best Baller on SBR
    Ghenghis Kahn's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 19,735
    Betpoints: 2261

    out of all the games tomorrow, you pick this game?

  6. #6
    billysink
    billysink's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-29-09
    Posts: 5,172

    The guy benefits from pitching at PNC so you think Safeco is a good place to factor that in?

    Why could you not wait for Locke to face a team that can hit the knuckle curve, change up or curveball. The Mariners are terrible against that offspeed stuff. Until you see this guy pitch a few times through you are dead in the water. Fukkin kid throws 6 pitches for strikes.

    Regression is a great theory to profitability but regression starts with reason. On its own it is just a thought.

    Can you give us some reason why this is the start Locke goes backwards because I don't see it.

  7. #7
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    The guy benefits from pitching at PNC so you think Safeco is a good place to factor that in?

    Why could you not wait for Locke to face a team that can hit the knuckle curve, change up or curveball. The Mariners are terrible against that offspeed stuff. Until you see this guy pitch a few times through you are dead in the water. Fukkin kid throws 6 pitches for strikes.

    Regression is a great theory to profitability but regression starts with reason. On its own it is just a thought.

    Can you give us some reason why this is the start Locke goes backwards because I don't see it.
    Well said Billy. This guy has great stuff and keeps everything low in the strike zone.

    I watched an interview with Locke and he said he learns a lot from AJ Burnett and AJ told him once when he was getting hit hard
    "pound down" and Locke said he has stuck with that approach ever since. It's a simple strategy but when you have stuff like Locke they cant hurt you if you keep it low

  8. #8
    easyliving
    easyliving's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-25-12
    Posts: 8,876
    Betpoints: 11

    line is down to even money glad I took this overnight

  9. #9
    OhMyEli
    OhMyEli's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-17-12
    Posts: 1,164

    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    The guy benefits from pitching at PNC so you think Safeco is a good place to factor that in?

    Why could you not wait for Locke to face a team that can hit the knuckle curve, change up or curveball. The Mariners are terrible against that offspeed stuff. Until you see this guy pitch a few times through you are dead in the water. Fukkin kid throws 6 pitches for strikes.

    Regression is a great theory to profitability but regression starts with reason. On its own it is just a thought.

    Can you give us some reason why this is the start Locke goes backwards because I don't see it.
    Wow we need more posts like this and less by clowns and guys who post every time they sneeze

  10. #10
    Grizzlies918
    Grizzlies918's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-29-12
    Posts: 371
    Betpoints: 594

    I really don't get all the posts about the guy benefiting from pitching at PNC Park. In 8 starts on the road this year, he has an ERA of 1.64, WHIP of 1.07, and hitters are only hitting .182 against him. I think he'll be a nightmare for Seattle batters. There are no stats that show regression.

  11. #11
    easyliving
    easyliving's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-25-12
    Posts: 8,876
    Betpoints: 11

    pitching again tomorrow against the Phillies. Phillies +151 to continue the fade.

  12. #12
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    lol this guey

  13. #13
    italianbandit
    italianbandit's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-17-11
    Posts: 2,622
    Betpoints: 2761

    Quote Originally Posted by Grizzlies918 View Post
    I really don't get all the posts about the guy benefiting from pitching at PNC Park. In 8 starts on the road this year, he has an ERA of 1.64, WHIP of 1.07, and hitters are only hitting .182 against him. I think he'll be a nightmare for Seattle batters. There are no stats that show regression.
    Are you nuts, his xFIP is double his ERA and he averages almost 4 walks per 9 innings.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

  14. #14
    italianbandit
    italianbandit's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-17-11
    Posts: 2,622
    Betpoints: 2761

    Easy you should also look at Phillies +1.5

  15. #15
    19th Hole
    19th Hole's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-22-09
    Posts: 17,771
    Betpoints: 9604

    ?????????


    It appears the Pittsburgh Pirates paid a small price for their ninth straight victory, as a brief bullpen session in the 14th inning from Jeff Locke has them in need of a starter for their opener against Philadelphia.
    Last edited by 19th Hole; 07-02-13 at 06:26 AM.

  16. #16
    Chi_archie
    GASPING FOR AIR
    Chi_archie's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-22-08
    Posts: 63,130
    Betpoints: 2260

    If Locke doesn't go I think we might see Brandon Cumpton again

    I agree that he is due to regress pretty big time according to his FIP and other sabr stats.

    he is actually quite a bit better on the road, so you can put that benefitting from home theory away for now.

    ERA BAA
    home 2.48 .227
    Away 1.76 .176

    he has alot more SO's away as well, so maybe he pitches to contact more when he is home, knowning Cutch and Marte got that left field notch on lockdown

  17. #17
    Chi_archie
    GASPING FOR AIR
    Chi_archie's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-22-08
    Posts: 63,130
    Betpoints: 2260

    actually maybe Jeanmar Gomez will be the more likely starter

  18. #18
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    so locke may be scratched ?

  19. #19
    easyliving
    easyliving's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-25-12
    Posts: 8,876
    Betpoints: 11

    take the action before the pitcher changes. Looks like Locke might not go.

  20. #20
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    Quote Originally Posted by easyliving View Post
    take the action before the pitcher changes. Looks like Locke might not go.
    where are yall seeing this?

  21. #21
    thetrinity
    penetrate me to tears
    thetrinity's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-25-11
    Posts: 22,430
    Betpoints: 5536

    it looks like locke will start from all ive seen.

    there was thought he might have been pushed back but it appears that hes gona go.

  22. #22
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    i want to know where the story came from about Locke being possibly scratched i cant find it anywhere

    did yall just make that up to fukk with people ?!!

    ive never heard of such non sense

  23. #23
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Quote Originally Posted by easyliving View Post
    take the action before the pitcher changes. Looks like Locke might not go.
    That won't benefit anyone in any way, if Locke is scratched, price is revised to the new opening number.

  24. #24
    whtsox13
    Update your status
    whtsox13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-12
    Posts: 1,401
    Betpoints: 13

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    i want to know where the story came from about Locke being possibly scratched i cant find it anywhere

    did yall just make that up to fukk with people ?!!

    ive never heard of such non sense
    After an exhaustive thirty second internet search I found it on a little known website for sports information called ESPN? Scroll down to 'game notes'
    http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=330630123

    You sure this is how you want to spend your days, BigBeer?
    Points Awarded:

    I/O gave whtsox13 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  25. #25
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Back on point (and assuming Locke goes), I think tonight is a good spot to fade him, I got Phils +174. Wasn't going to in +150s but couldn't resist at current number.

  26. #26
    mik5058
    mik5058's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-03-10
    Posts: 74
    Betpoints: 4654

    Locke scratched. Cumpton is pitching.

  27. #27
    drfunkmaster
    printing it
    drfunkmaster's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-29-08
    Posts: 11,162
    Betpoints: 1065

    Tue 7/2 901 Philadelphia Phillies J Pettibone - R +151 o3½ -115 u3½ -105
    7:05PM 902 Pittsburgh Pirates B Cumpton - R -161 o4½ -105 u4½ -115

  28. #28
    ThingsFallApart
    ThingsFallApart's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-24-10
    Posts: 880

    Quote Originally Posted by drfunkmaster View Post
    Tue 7/2 901 Philadelphia Phillies J Pettibone - R <input id="checkboxx" name="S1_0" type="checkBox"> <input id="checkboxx" name="M1_0" type="checkBox">+151 <input id="checkboxx" name="L1_0" type="checkBox"> <input id="checkboxx" name="E1_0" type="checkBox">o3½ -115 <input id="checkboxx" name="E3_0" type="checkBox">u3½ -105
    7:05PM 902 Pittsburgh Pirates B Cumpton - R <input id="checkboxx" name="S2_0" type="checkBox"> <input id="checkboxx" name="M2_0" type="checkBox">-161 <input id="checkboxx" name="L2_0" type="checkBox"> <input id="checkboxx" name="E2_0" type="checkBox">o4½ -105 <input id="checkboxx" name="E4_0" type="checkBox">u4½ -115
    I've been fooled too many times into taking a shitty team just because one player is out. Phillies below +175 not worth it.

  29. #29
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,377
    Betpoints: 18704

    I'm still seeing Locke starting...I think this is a terrible spot to fade Locke. It's more like a good spot to fade Pettibone...

  30. #30
    Louisvillekid1
    LAMAR MVP!
    Louisvillekid1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-17-07
    Posts: 52,044
    Betpoints: 553

    locke is out,

    My wager is now Phills +145 from +171

  31. #31
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,377
    Betpoints: 18704

    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    locke is out,

    My wager is now Phills +145 from +171
    Really? Why? Does Locke being out stop the Pirates from hitting Pettibone, which I plan on the doing?

  32. #32
    Louisvillekid1
    LAMAR MVP!
    Louisvillekid1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-17-07
    Posts: 52,044
    Betpoints: 553

    Well the price at +171 was too good to pass up, and It was an Action Bet.

    So while I don't like the play as much w/ the change and the price 26 cent drop, I'm letting it Ride.

  33. #33
    Chi_archie
    GASPING FOR AIR
    Chi_archie's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-22-08
    Posts: 63,130
    Betpoints: 2260

    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Well the price at +171 was too good to pass up, and It was an Action Bet.

    So while I don't like the play as much w/ the change and the price 26 cent drop, I'm letting it Ride.

    You think 26 cents is too steep a drop from a top 5 pitcher in the NL so far to a guy that would never have seen a MLB roster unless 7 guys got hurt?

  34. #34
    Bdolan33
    Bdolan33's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-12
    Posts: 1,255
    Betpoints: 2224

    and of course none of the predicted scenarios happen. locke is throwing a scoreless game, and the pirates havent touched pettibone for 1 run. were wasting our time boys.

  35. #35
    Chi_archie
    GASPING FOR AIR
    Chi_archie's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-22-08
    Posts: 63,130
    Betpoints: 2260

    Actually Locke has not given up a hit or walk or allowed ANY base runner today.

1234 ... Last
Top