1. #1
    Courtesywipe
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    I live in Philly!

    I live in Philadelphia, Pa and I am obviously a huge Phils Phan! That being said.............I am large on ARZ tonight as the Phils are pathetic this season. Even with their best pitcher on the bump tonight (Hamels), Phils wont be able to hold down the potent offense of Arizona.

    Play- Arizona -1.5 runs
    Arizona - ML
    Arizona & over 7.5 runs (parlay)


  2. #2
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Courtesywipe View Post
    I live in Philadelphia, Pa and I am obviously a huge Phils Phan! That being said.............I am large on ARZ tonight as the Phils are pathetic this season. Even with their best pitcher on the bump tonight (Hamels), Phils wont be able to hold down the potent offense of Arizona.

    Play- Arizona -1.5 runs
    Arizona - ML
    Arizona & over 7.5 runs (parlay)

    Yep, I'm 5u on the ML and 2u on the RL. Corbin is a beast.

  3. #3
    I/O
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    stealing

  4. #4
    Smoke
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    Corbin is a horseshoe headed prick

  5. #5
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    Corbin is a horseshoe headed prick
    That's Michael J. This is his nephew. Kid has a huuuuuuuhg rooster.

  6. #6
    damatador31
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    im from philly as well and agree this team is weak ...but you never know with howard and utley....and the cole train could get back on track good luck to ya

  7. #7
    tatddy
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    I'd be surprised if you tracked your home team RL -1.5 bets over a full year and were in the positive.

  8. #8
    robmpink
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    Quote Originally Posted by Courtesywipe View Post
    I live in Philadelphia, Pa and I am obviously a huge Phils Phan! That being said.............I am large on ARZ tonight as the Phils are pathetic this season. Even with their best pitcher on the bump tonight (Hamels), Phils wont be able to hold down the potent offense of Arizona.

    Play- Arizona -1.5 runs
    Arizona - ML
    Arizona & over 7.5 runs (parlay)

    Wow fella, the BI complaint freeplays have got to your head. Best pitcher is Hamels?

  9. #9
    robmpink
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    Anyway, don't give a f if I lose, but thanks for the fade.

    5/9/13 9:36 PM
    Money Line
    1,101.00
    1,156.05
    National League
    Baseball - 903 Philadelphia Phillies +105 for Game
    Ticket #:

  10. #10
    onacloud
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    unreal awful base running by the DBACKS just cost them a run

  11. #11
    Louisvillekid1
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    Where in Philly?

  12. #12
    onacloud
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    and another DBACK runner gets caught

  13. #13
    El Nino
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    Prado swings at ball 4 and costs us the RL.

  14. #14
    El Nino
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    Howard grounds out to RF hahahaha

    Phillies

  15. #15
    onacloud
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    Howard grounds out to RF hahahaha

    Phillies

    That was nuts

  16. #16
    tatddy
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    Like u said never bet a home team on the rl again and you'll be happy long term

  17. #17
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by tatddy View Post
    Like u said never bet a home team on the rl again and you'll be happy long term
    tatddyer, Dbacks left 11 on and had the bases loaded numerous times. Tons of value in that RL.

  18. #18
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by tatddy View Post
    Like u said never bet a home team on the rl again and you'll be happy long term
    I've always wondered about the road/home RL with lack of extra at bat for the home team. And if that value is built into the line already or not, I would have to assume it is.

  19. #19
    ThaTopMoron
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    that's why you make 1 play on a game, the ML... lose the RL and why did you think Over, two lefties yo

  20. #20
    tatddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    tatddyer, Dbacks left 11 on and had the bases loaded numerous times. Tons of value in that RL.
    1st off thank you for your avatar because it makes me laugh every time I think of that Farley sketch. El Nino is Spanish for...thh....the NINO.

    I didn't watch the game I just saw the score from the stands at ATT (talk about awful someone tell Scutaro and Pablo that we're playing real baseball games that count these days). Like I said, track your results with home RL bets and see how you make out over a decent sample size of a hundred or so bets. If you're winning then by all means bust 'em up.

    I haven't been doing this for a long time so there are much smarter baseball cappers everywhere, but I've pretty much sworn off home RL bets. Your win probability drops far too substantially for a RL bet and you're relative value increase in the price doesn't justify the risk.

    I'm not a math guy so I'm not going to even bother getting into advanced metrics. We're talking about short priced home favorites here in a good spot we should just be happy taking the -120 or better and winning at a high clip. It's not just the loss of the final home half-inning. The dynamics of a home teams aggression level (don't play for big innings) in the late innings is a huge consideration.

    I place home team -1.5 RL bets from time to time. It's usually based on a huge gut feel having watched the momentum of the 2 teams playing. There's not sufficient math to back it up. I probably win most of them...but I do them rarely and it's usually on a fairly significant home fave (-170+).

  21. #21
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by tatddy View Post
    1st off thank you for your avatar because it makes me laugh every time I think of that Farley sketch. El Nino is Spanish for...thh....the NINO.

    I didn't watch the game I just saw the score from the stands at ATT (talk about awful someone tell Scutaro and Pablo that we're playing real baseball games that count these days). Like I said, track your results with home RL bets and see how you make out over a decent sample size of a hundred or so bets. If you're winning then by all means bust 'em up.

    I haven't been doing this for a long time so there are much smarter baseball cappers everywhere, but I've pretty much sworn off home RL bets. Your win probability drops far too substantially for a RL bet and you're relative value increase in the price doesn't justify the risk.

    I'm not a math guy so I'm not going to even bother getting into advanced metrics. We're talking about short priced home favorites here in a good spot we should just be happy taking the -120 or better and winning at a high clip. It's not just the loss of the final home half-inning. The dynamics of a home teams aggression level (don't play for big innings) in the late innings is a huge consideration.

    I place home team -1.5 RL bets from time to time. It's usually based on a huge gut feel having watched the momentum of the 2 teams playing. There's not sufficient math to back it up. I probably win most of them...but I do them rarely and it's usually on a fairly significant home fave (-170+).
    Haha, no prob. pal

    I just looked at my spread sheet and saw that I'm 5-5 on runline bets this season, up around a unit. 1 of those was the Nats on the road, the rest were home run lines. So 4-5 -0.05u on home run lines. I guess I see your point on that even with the small sample size. I'm sure the linesmakers build in the home runline with the extra at bat missing. Or, worst case scenario that you will need a 2-run HR or better to cover if the home team bats in the 9th or extras. I agree that most of the time it's better to bet a huge fav if your going to bet the RL (example Reds the other night were -200ish but even $ on the RL at home against the Marlins) but when the line is off in my capping, I tend to try and exploit that value. I thought both lines tonight were 15-20 cents off.

    I just felt that there was tremendous value in the Dbacks $ Line and RL tonight. The average bettor hasn't heard of Patrick Corbin and they see a -105 next to Cole Hamels and pull the trigger on the "Ace" even though he plays for a worse team and he's on the road. Dbacks should have been -130ish. Many people don't know that the Dbacks lead almost every defensive fielding category in the NL. Corbin is a stud in the making and now that he's out of Bower's shadow he can shine. -114 against a weak offensive team in the Phillies at home was a gift. As I mentioned earlier, Prado was up with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 7th on a 3-1 count and swung at ball 4 which would have made it 3-1. The relief pitcher for the Phillies had just walked Miggy on 4 straight pitches and threw 3 more balls before getting his first strike. Prado hit a weak fly out trying to bust the game open. The Dbacks had runners on all night and just couldn't get the clutch hit. An umpire error led to the Phillies getting the bases loaded which eventually led to their only run. Now this is all after the fact and we don't cap in a results oriented manner, but when I cap the game 5-1, 5-2 Dbacks and the game goes according to plan except for the final result, I feel like it was a good wager in my book.

  22. #22
    Sportsbetting123
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    Phils never score any runs for Hamels..I bet he wants to be traded

  23. #23
    tatddy
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    Niners no argument with your write up on Ari last night. I'm talking in general terms here. I'll just add that while I agree that Corbin is way underrated, the d backs are near the bottom of the MLB in average and obp vs lhp this year. They were also back home for game 1 after an easy 6 game road trip. In that spot I'm more than happy to take the great ml value vs gambling for the rl and asking them to put up runs.

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