Series is posted as a pick 'em, Baltimore @ Seattle. Both available @ -110. Here's the breakdown for me on a big bet.
Probable Pitchers
G1: Tillman v. Noesi
G2: Chen v. E.Ramirez
G3: Saunders v. F.Hernandez
Season Series
Baltimore leads 5-1. Swept the Ms @ home & won 2/3 in Seattle in early July.
Last 10
Orioles 6-4
Seattle 4-6
Breakdown
Orioles have won 6 of last 8 series based on 1st three games of series[series betting standard].
In Game 1, Tillman has the pitching edge. O's are 8-3 in his starts, while Seattle is just 5-12 when Noesi starts. O's are 5-1 in Tillman's road starts and 3-0 in his last three. At home, Noesi's starts have yielded just two wins in nine tries and Seattle has lost his last five starts. He is also coming back into the rotation for the first time since July. Tillman limited Seattle to one run in 7.1 IP in August in a 3-1 Baltimore win at home. He gave up just two unearned runs in 8 IP in his first start of the year on July 4th @ SAFECO.
In Game 2, the O's have won nine of 13 road starts by Chen. He's been a bit up & down lately, but gave up just two earned to Seattle in outdueling Felix Hernandez back in July, a 5-4 O's win on the road. Erasmo Ramirez has been pretty steady in five spot starts for Seattle. Seattle is 3-2 in his starts, losing both at home. This is the toss-up game in this series. If Baltimore gets this one, I think they will have already won the series or provide the hedge in Game 3.
Game 3 isn't a total gimme just because it's King Felix. Joe Saunders has been solid in his last three since coming over from Arizona. He has given up just five earned runs in his last three starts, Baltimore won two of three. Felix is on a three game slide, getting hit hard in his last two starts where the opposition scored 13 runs off of him. Despite a stellar 2.46 @ SAFECO, Seattle is only 9-7 in his starts there this season. They also chose to give him an extra day of rest, so perhaps he is wearing down. By name, he looks the favorite - but in looking at the current situation, Baltimore won't be overmatched.
Outlook
Obviously, I have Game 1 tabbed as an Orioles win and that is a must get for this series bet IMO. Seattle has lost their last five series openers when they come off of road trips, so it is a good time for Baltimore to get the jump on this series. If they snare Game 1, then worst case scenario will be a hedge opportunity in Game 3 if the teams split the first two games. Baltimore has been solid on the road all season and have won six of their last eight series. At a pick 'em, I quite like this one a bit as I am looking for a few "soft" spots to end the season in positions. Good luck whatever you did with this info.
Pick
Baltimore -110. Risking 2.75 units to win 2.50 units