[Jeff Grant]

The Atlanta Braves are 0-12 when playing on Monday this year, but are 40-20 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 since 2010.

[chilidog]

Yes, but what is their record when they play on Mondays in July? That's the vital trend.

[Smutbucket]

i have a hard time believing that the monday trend is anything but a coincidence and shouldnt really be considered that much when capping the game...

[Pluthero]

What does Carl Crawford have to do with this?

[Deal With It]

Braves BYOB team party is on Sunday nights.

[Jeff Grant]

i have a hard time believing that the monday trend is anything but a coincidence and shouldnt really be considered that much when capping the game...

If there's a day of any significance in terms of handicapping baseball - Monday is probably the highest in terms of relevance

[JMon]

Yes, but what is their record when they play on Mondays in July? That's the vital trend.

13-9 since '04. 8-0 from the 2004-06 seasons. 5-9 from 2007-present...0-2 this season

[JMon]

If there's a day of any significance in terms of handicapping baseball - Monday is probably the highest in terms of relevance

Don't forget Tuesday dog day and weekend home favs!!!! On the blind, weekend home favs have generated 2% ROI since 04. Something about home crowds on weekends! HFA.

On the blind dogs on Tuesday have generated 1.3% ROI since 04, 9.4% ROI for home dogs on Tuesday.

[Jeff Grant]

13-9 since '04. 8-0 from the 2004-06 seasons. 5-9 from 2007-present...0-2 this season

Mr. Stat Man

[MagicDiceFlow]

My best days of the week for baseball are Tuesdays through Thursdays. Feels like I have the best feel for the games on those three days.

[Jeff Grant]

My best days of the week for baseball are Tuesdays through Thursdays. Feels like I have the best feel for the games on those three days.

Understandable - usually the second, third or fourth game of the series

[agendaman]

mr. grant/a post like that is totally irrelevant /we have enough confusion here /do you ever post a pick

[agendaman]

mr. grant/ that post is totally irrelevant /we have enough confusion here do you ever post a pick

[Jeff Grant]

mr. grant/ that post is totally irrelevant /we have enough confusion here do you ever post a pick

Exhibit A, Exhibit B from Sunday

[El Nino]

A bit more relevant stat: The Marlins stole 7 bases off Hanson last game. For a team built on speed and playing NL style ball, they will be sending all their speedsters at will. Hanson better have his walks down or there will be RISP all night.

[borednaz]

I'm avoiding the game, I just don't trust the Marlins ever. But then again that's how I feel about the Braves too. There are far better games out there today.

[Jeff Grant]

A bit more relevant stat: The Marlins stole 7 bases off Hanson last game. For a team built on speed and playing NL style ball, they will be sending all their speedsters at will. Hanson better have his walks down or there will be RISP all night.

Very aware of that piece of information

[EVPlus]

IMO, a successful capper looks at all possible stats, angles, trends and does his best to form an accurate picture of what is most likely to happen.

Those who write off a trend as "coincidence" fail to look at each individual piece of the puzzle. And those who choose to ignore any potentially relevant information are doomed to fail.

This past sat, smut gave a play on clev to win and his reasons were primarily based on batter discipline and the sp for the twinkies. The final score: cle 5 and twinkies 12.

I am NOT advocating that a capper lives and dies by a certain stat/angle/trend. For example, Indian Cowboy, a tout, bases many of his decisions primarily on the revenge factor. This has its time and place; however, it's no sure thing. Indeed, this tout is hovering around the 50% mark this season in his mlb plays.

What I am suggesting is that a capper, if he wants to be successful long term, should entertain the fact that he should develop an awareness of when to place more emphasis on a particular stat, angle, or a trend and when to place less emphasis on it. It's like a jigsaw puzzle in which the same pieces that fit yesterday do not fit today.

To give my own example, early in the mlb season, I was pretty much in the black by the end of pretty much every friday. The damn thing was, I'd give some or all of it back on the weekends. This was my personal trend. Looking back at my notes, it occured to me that I simply needed to unplug for a day or two and come back mentally refreshed. Since adopting this schedule, the season is going quite well for me. Now I just cap for the practice on weekends or don't cap at all.

[underal]

i think the marlins are worth a small wager at +130 or better. buerlhe is capable of shutting down the braves lineup and hanson has been very shaky. i wouldn't go big because if it comes down to the pens the braves have a big edge

[EVPlus]

Everybody keeps writing off the fish because they are so awful. It doesn't help there was a recent story by a nationally published sports writer calling the owner and pres con men.

The thing about a team that has nothing to lose is that they often play relaxed. And a relaxed team often does well (as long as they're not too relaxed).

Add to that, Atl finished a sweep of Phi and is in prime spot for a let down. If Buehrle has an off day, the fish bp threw 114 pitches in the last day by 6 pitchers and 234 pitches in the last 3 days by 13 pitchers. The Braves have a larger cushion in that, if Hanson has an off day, Atl bp has thrown 40 pitches by 4 pitchers in the last day and 113 pitches by 8 pitchers in the last three days. That's half the volume of the fish bp.

I didn't cap this game any further (sp xERA, FIP, GB/FB ratio, etc.) because I like the Braves tonight but not enough to lay -150 to find out whether or not I was right.

[Smutbucket]

Lol, problem is theres a billion of websites with bad trends/ useless info that doesnt effect game (in my opinion like teams record on a certain day) ....just like any "market" if you look at all the trends and try to make a prediction on everything instead of the important valuable trends, you will be less successfull, or maybe just depends of capper, but I can tell you for sure theres tons of garbage info out there, particularly involving line movement,

the cleveland game? do you watch games? game went exactly as I capped it. Deduno was all over the place, walking 3 in first 2 innings, I just didnt realize how bad clevlenad bats were, and masterson was dominating the twins holding em all to groundballs until giving up one bad pitch and had em up 0-2, and lost all focus/control after that point....so your example of my game this past saturday is pretty damn retarded, maybe if I looked at a trend of how indians performed on saturday I might have been smart enough to lay off this game? please dude.
thats terrible advice IN MY OPINION
these are how we differ in opinions. no big deal, hope u dont take offense

[EVPlus]

Lol, problem is theres a billion of websites with bad trends/ useless info that doesnt effect game (in my opinion like teams record on a certain day) ....just like any "market" if you look at all the trends and try to make a prediction on everything instead of the important valuable trends, you will be less successfull, or maybe just depends of capper, but I can tell you for sure theres tons of garbage info out there, particularly involving line movement,

the cleveland game? do you watch games? game went exactly as I capped it. Deduno was all over the place, walking 3 in first 2 innings, I just didnt realize how bad clevlenad bats were, and masterson was dominating the twins holding em all to groundballs until giving up one bad pitch and had em up 0-2, and lost all focus/control after that point....so your example of my game this past saturday is pretty damn retarded, maybe if I looked at a trend of how indians performed on saturday I might have been smart enough to lay off this game? please dude.
thats terrible advice IN MY OPINION
these are how we differ in opinions. no big deal, hope u dont take offense

The clev play you gave out was just another example of how your capping methods yield losing results. Between giving out sh!t plays and focusing on trying to win every forum debate, you and your posts just take up useless space.

And even if the batters did not practice plate discipline as you called it, you failed to factor in other matters such as stats/trends/situational angles.

This is why, although you may have been right about the batters, your play, once the dust settled, lost. You simply failed to look at how your particular read on the game would be outweighed by other factors.

So take solace in that one aspect of the game went your way. You're still down units from that play and this particular trend, I am very confident, won't change because you're just too stubborn.

[darrell74]

What does Carl Crawford have to do with this?

Clever

[Smutbucket]

once again your opinion is shortsited amd retarded. this forum has been around while now and in just last 3 months I got into one other runline debate with you and you get all pissed off, I dont need to post my track records of threads,/how much time I put into picks, no shit clevland was a bad pick, your right I did neglect to look at many of other stats , so what, i can pick baseball well as long as I pick a game or 2 a day/ spend a good amount of time on it, and I have threads in beginning of season to prove it....

my bad for all the typos earlier I was in a rush and didnt reread it at all, lol