[EVPlus]

I won (barely) on the Rockies ml on the first game, stayed away the second, and, based on the results of those two games, I decided to put one unit on the Bucs tomorrow.

The line opened around -106 and I grabbed it while it was -110. It's gone up since then
(-120 or so at the time of this post).

I do NOT recommend the RL as the Bucs have one of the highest 1-run games in the league.



McDonald has a WHIP of 1.05 and a xERA of 2.41

Guthrie has a WHIP of 1.73 and a xERA of 6.19

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McDonald has the standard 5 rest days under his belt, having last pitched on the 13th. Prior to that he pitched on July 7 and 2.

Guthrie last pitched on July 14. Prior to that, he pitched on July 8th (6 innings, 83 pitches) and on July 4 (6 innings, 84 pitches). My theory is the CUMULATIVE fatigue of only having 4 rest days between the 4th, 8th, the 14th, and now the 18th will be a major factor in how he performs. And, let's face it: at 33, he's no spring chicken.

***************

Bucs bp has thrown 104 pitches by 7 pitchers in the last three days.

Rockies bp has thrown 166 pitches by 10 pitchers in the last three days. This is significant as Guthrie averages 3.94 innings this season, with his longest stay being 6 innings.

***************

I do not know what the Bucs' collective mindset was when they first arrived at Denver. Did they think a sweep, or at least a series win, was pretty much a done deal...? This is the Rockies after all. Get guys on base, hit some long balls, rinse and repeat for 7 innings, go on cruise control in 8th and 9th, then it's off for some high-altitude poontang with the local baseball skanks.

Well, the first game should have sent a loud and clear message that they're going to have to fight.

And fight they did. In the first game, they could have easily mailed it in going into the 9th. But they clawed their way back to tie it up, only to lose by a run in the bottom of the same inning.

As for today, sure Bedard broke his losing streak (albeit in a sloppy fashion). However, let's not forget the Rockies gift-wrapped the W. Three separate times they left the bases loaded - including the 9th. They also had a man on third with ZERO outs and left him stranded.

If the Bucs have half a brain, they should be aware tomorrow's game will be a fight.

And in a fight, I'll take a well-rested McDonald, hit-the-ball-so-damn-far-it-shows-up-on-Denver's-air-traffic-control-radar McCutchen, and a motivated Bucs over the Rockies.

The Bucs are also aware of the smack the critics say about them: How they'll fade in the second half, how they'll disappoint like they did last year, smack, hate, smack, hate, etc. etc. I am wagering that this team wants to be a factor in the post season and the first order of business is taking care of business with the Rockies.

Yes, it's square. Yes, it's obvious. And yes, unless you grabbed this early you'll have to eat some chalk. Tail, fade, or pass. It's your br and your decision.

Rockies are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Rockies are 0-5 in their last 5 Wednesday games.
Rockies are 4-1 in Guthries last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rockies are 1-4 in Guthries last 5 home starts.
Rockies are 1-5 in Guthries last 6 starts.
Rockies are 1-5 in Guthries last 6 starts on grass.
Rockies are 1-6 in Guthries last 7 starts as an underdog.
Rockies are 0-4 in Guthries last 4 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Pirates are 5-0 in McDonalds last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Pirates are 4-0 in McDonalds last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Pirates are 4-0 in McDonalds last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Pirates are 5-0 in McDonalds last 5 starts as a favorite.
Pirates are 5-1 in McDonalds last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Pirates are 5-1 in McDonalds last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
Pirates are 4-1 in McDonalds last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Pirates are 4-1 in McDonalds last 5 starts.

Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games with Johnson behind home plate.
Road team is 5-1 in Johnsons last 6 games behind home plate vs. Pittsburgh.
Rockies are 1-7 in their last 8 games with Johnson behind home plate.

[ShogunRua]

Nice writeup, thanks for sharing.

I do have to point out though that most of those stats you included at the end are pretty useless/irrelevant. You can cherry pick those types of things to make cases for both sides.

Good luck, hope it hits for you.

[EVPlus]

Nice writeup, thanks for sharing.

I do have to point out though that most of those stats you included at the end are pretty useless/irrelevant. You can cherry pick those types of things to make cases for both sides.

Good luck, hope it hits for you.

You are correct about cherry picking trends to back a position. And trends are only indicative of what ***can*** happen in the future. However, I found the trends overwhelmingly in favor of the Bucs. Of course, bookies don't pay on trends but the final results.

The trends I listed were pretty much the icing on the cake. It's the pitching, hitting, and (what I believe) to be a fire in the gut of the Pirates that will give them the W tomorrow and not squander an opportunity.

[ShogunRua]

Fair enough. Again, good luck. Hope to see more write ups/analysis like this from you in the future.

[ColdBeerHere]

pitt ml now -122 at 5dimes

[Hectorcist]

I read this after I selected the Bucks today and it just solidifies it even more. Pirates hitting Guthrie over .300 and Rockies hitting Mcdonald under .200. Might be square but its a solid play.

[EVPlus]

Congrats to Bucs backers. They certainly made it spicy in the first few innings.

A few thoughts:

1) I suspected McDonald may regress but not as nearly as much as he did today. I have a few theories as to why but right now they're just that - theories.

2) Guthrie, true to form, lasted about 3 innings. This shortened rest-day cycle the Rockies pitchers are dealing with WILL IMO be a factor when handicapping future games.

3) Rockies bp, as I suspected, gave up more runs. McCutchen had a pull-back day after last night (in which his long ball was so impressive even the Rockies fans were seen cheering). The rest of the Bucs bats, as suspected, pulled up the slack. Even McDonald got a base hit (might as well - the fool was embarrassing himself on the mound).

4) The most impressive thing IMO all game was just how QUICKLY Jason Grilli (Bucs reliever) was pulled off the mound when it was crystal clear he didn't have his A game today. I am so fukking sick, tired, and disgusted with pu55ies like Baker, Scioscia, and Roenicke keeping a pitcher on the mound and giving away leads that I'm now adding 1st 5 inning games into my capping. The Pirates leadership did the right thing by replacing Grilli and protecting the 3-run lead.

[ColdBeerHere]

good thread thanks for posting...I took the bucks overnight at -122...

[Lakey]

Good shout mate.

[ShogunRua]

Nice hit.