[No coincidences]

Line already plummeting. Nova not that sharp at home (and overall) but the Yanks hit for him. Weaver is Weaver; you're hardly ever going to see him as a dog. Might be a great opportunity to hit up the Angels trying to avoid the sweep.

Thoughts?

[Jeff Grant]

Weaver has never won at the new Yankee Stadium (0-1, 6.08 ERA in two outings)

Done most of his best work at home this year (0.58 ERA vs. 3.24 ERA)

Yankees current roster has some solid numbers against him - outside of Derek Jeter (.167 in 24 ABs)

[No coincidences]

Weaver has never won at the new Yankee Stadium (0-1, 6.08 ERA in two outings)

Done most of his best work at home this year (0.58 ERA vs. 3.24 ERA)

Yankees current roster has some solid numbers against him - outside of Derek Jeter (.167 in 24 ABs)

Thanks Jeff. Have to like the over. Obviously it's 9.5 for a reason.

That has to be the highest in a Weaver game in a long, long time.

[EVPlus]

Too tempting to want to back Weaver. I'll cap this tonight and post on this thread if I find any angles others may find helpful.

I will say that I'm very disappointed in Soscia as a manager. In friday night's game, he was very very stupid IMO to put in a lefty reliever after the Yanks dealt with lefty pitching all night. Completely squandered what should have been a relatively easy win.

[B1AZE]

Thanks Jeff. Have to like the over. Obviously it's 9.5 for a reason.

That has to be the highest in a Weaver game in a long, long time.

Playing something because it's 9.5 for a reason, without finding the reason will lose you a lot of money. IMO

[phillybadboy]

i tailed huge!

[HoulihansTX]

Already bet NYY, probably bet again in the morning.

[EVPlus]

Angels are 1-4 in Weavers last 5 Sunday starts.
Yankees are 9-1 in Novas last 10 Sunday starts.
Yankees are 42-18 in their last 60 Sunday games.
EDGE: NYY

Angels are 1-5 in their last 6 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Yankees are 11-5 in Novas last 16 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
EDGE: NYY

Angels are 6-1 in Weavers last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
Yankees are 10-4 in Novas last 14 starts during game 3 of a series.
EDGE: DEBATABLE

Angels are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
EDGE: DEBATABLE

Angels are 0-5 in Weavers last 5 starts as a road underdog.
Yankees are 11-5 in Novas last 16 starts as a home favorite.
EDGE: NYY

Angels are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Yankees are 21-7 in their last 28 games vs. a right-handed starter.
EDGE: NYY

Road team is 11-2 in Welkes last 13 games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
Home team is 9-2 in Welkes last 11 games behind home plate vs. New York.
EDGE: NONE

Home team is 4-1 in Welkes last 5 games behind home plate.
Yankees are 13-4 in their last 17 games with Welke behind home plate.
EDGE: NYY

Weaver has some demons with tomorrow's game. The last time he faced NYY, he strained his lower back and was on the DL for 20 games. I think tomorrow will be a character test for him. Will he slay the demons or crumble under the pressure...? I haven't followed him well enough to know the answer.

I do think revenge will be a motivator for the Angels tomorrow. Unfortunately, wanting something and having the fire power to obtain it can be worlds apart. And let's not forget that the Yankees would love to crush a "hot" pitcher like Weaver and put his head in their trophy case.

I don't know how Weaver will perform. I do know that I no longer respect Scioscia as a manager. I'll go so far as to say that the Angels, with all that talent, will not be a contender in the World Series this season.

I'm going to study the line movements early tomorrow and look at how the bp was used in the past two games. At this time, I do not feel comfortable backing the Angels.

[No coincidences]

Rule #1 in gambling: if you pass on a play, it becomes the easiest winner on the board.

At least in my world.

[STAY STRONG]

Frieri no good today.

[EVPlus]

Rule #1 in gambling: if you pass on a play, it becomes the easiest winner on the board.

At least in my world.

I saw the final score and had my "what if I backed the Halos" moment. I checked the line last night and saw a major spike in favor the Angels. I'll take passes like these because, more often than not, games I pass on protect my br.

The score doesn't reflect it - but I anticipated too many ways in which this final game in the series would be coin flip. Haven't read the post-game report/stats though.

[No coincidences]

I saw the final score and had my "what if I backed the Halos" moment. I checked the line last night and saw a major spike in favor the Angels. I'll take passes like these because, more often than not, games I pass on protect my br.

The score doesn't reflect it - but I anticipated too many ways in which this final game in the series would be coin flip. Haven't read the post-game report/stats though.

Yeah, there were plenty of "crossroads" moments in this one. Angels ML was anything but a slam dunk, but of course it cashed anyway.