1. #1
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    Regression/Improvement Analysis

    A quarter of the way through the MLB season, we have teams that have started off hot, some cold, players going through slumps and some that are streaking hot. This is all very normal and expected over a small sample size with so many players in the league, players that are essentially a number, or series of numbers and equations.

    I'm going to use this thread to track plays based on a few factors.

    Team offensive luck improvement/regression:
    I've created a formula that measures team offensive "luck" and how teams are doing relative to how they should be doing offensively. There are no doubt gaping holes in my formula, which is partly why I'm opening this thread, to track and correct/tinker with the equations.

    Top teams due for regression by this metric (and giving me a higher likelihood to fade) are

    Boston (24.91176 extra runs compared to what they should have)
    Texas (24.52941)
    Colorado (23.176)
    St. Louis (19.61765)
    Baltimore (15.91176)
    LA Dodgers (13.29412)

    Top teams due for improvement (higher likelihood to back) are:

    San Diego (-21.9118)
    Chi Cubs (-14.8529)
    Oakland (-14.7647)
    Washington (-11.7353)
    San Fran (-10.2059)
    NY Mets (-8.85294)

    Individual Pitcher Regression/Improvement:

    Obviously, the pitcher is the most important variable in any baseball game; this is the most heavily weighted factor in making a play. I expect seasonal stats (across the board) to normalize to very close to the career stats of an individual pitcher as the season goes along, so I try to look for outliers here. Of course, injury or other explainable, significant phenomenon can logically/realistically make a player not be able to perform at previous levels. However, I don't believe in a player suddenly "figuring it out" and becoming a noticeably better player apart from his first 2 seasons in the league. Any outliers who are having a great season get a higher probability of fading from me.

    Lineup substitutions on a given day:

    Apart from simply having a better player in the game, I find that having a full powered lineup (all the starters in) increases the chances of winning that game. It doesn't really make logical sense to me but I guess it's a mindset. Like everyone goes into the game thinking, this is a game we win since this is the best team we can possibly field. I don't believe in things like a mental edge (since the effects should be so minimal) but full lineups do tend to win more than they should (statistically), so I'll have to concede that point.
    These will be the three biggest factors on plays for me. I've just completed the very initial version of this Offensive luck regression/improvement model so this will be the test run of it. The numbers for the model (and teams to fade and back) will obviously swing from likely week to week so it won't be those same teams scoring highly or lowly on the model.

    I find it interesting that even with Colorado's extreme luck this year, they still suck. Obviously their pitching is atrocious, but you'd think they would still be winning games. Same with Boston.
    On the flip side, the Nationals are doing extremely well given they are still due for major improvement offensively, again their pitching has been lights out (although due for natural regression themselves).
    Points Awarded:

    therushishere gave aznbluff 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    taxe91 gave aznbluff 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    EVPlus gave aznbluff 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    First play will be Nationals +141 (1 to win 1.41)

    Meets 4/5 filters

    Nationals are about -11.74 runs below expected value (EV) and Braves are 12.44 runs above EV.
    Hudson is running good and due for a slight regression (still a better pitcher than Detwiler)
    Detwiler is due for a slight regression as well (so the only negative about this play)
    Nationals are fielding their best lineup they have available to them at this point.
    Braves are resting McCann, Jones, and Pastornicky

    The line opened at Nats +140 and has remained fairly constant so I think we are getting a decent price here at +141. Obviously the Braves have the better offense and the better pitcher on the mound and are rightfully favored here but there are enough variables favoring the Nationals to more than justify the price at +141.

  3. #3
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    Brewers/Diamondbacks Under 9.5 -103 (1.03 to win 1)

    Milwaukee at 6.676 runs above EV and Arizona at 7 runs below is pretty negligible.
    Both Kennedy and Gallardo are candidates for (decent sized) improvement as the season goes along.
    Arizona is sitting 4 of it's top hitters and Milwaukee has two weak links at the bottom of their roster today.

    Getting 9.5 is very solid here since the team due for slight offensive regression is the team fielding the stronger lineup.

  4. #4
    prior22usaf
    prior22usaf's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-28-11
    Posts: 151
    Betpoints: 603

    Nice 2-0 start....Hope you keep 'em coming!

  5. #5
    LoneStar
    I'm Kind of A Big Deal
    LoneStar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-11-09
    Posts: 190
    Betpoints: 18

    nice detailed work bud

  6. #6
    BigPage25
    BigPage25's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-17-12
    Posts: 3,571

    very nice start bro

  7. #7
    taxe91
    taxe91's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-16-12
    Posts: 610

    subscribed to this thread, real interesting theories. gl

    do you have stadium factors built into your metrics? the thing that stands out for me about colorado/boston and their poor records is that their home parks are so hitter friendly, which is maybe contributing more runs than they should have?
    Last edited by taxe91; 05-26-12 at 06:21 AM.

  8. #8
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    Due for Offensive Regression Due for Improvement
    Texas 27.85294 San Diego -23.3235
    Boston 24.70588 Chi Cubs -18.0882
    Colorado 24.11765 Oakland -14.2941
    St. Louis 19.05882 Minnesota -10.2647
    Baltimore 17.85294 Pittsburgh -10.0294
    Toronto 13 San Fran -9.26471
    Atlanta 12.52941 Washington -9.11765
    LA Dodgers 10.85294 Arizona -8.70588
    Updated values, already starting to notice some flaws in this model but will wait to see some further results before making any adjustments. My model could be quite inaccurate in determining Runs above normal expectation if it's in fact a derivative of power baseball instead.

    So teams that fell off the due for improvement list are the Mets, and both Washington and San Fran score a little lower after yesterday. Minnesota and Arizona find their ways onto this list, despite Minny putting up 6 runs yesterday.

    On the regression side, Texas is now #1 after another 10+ run output yesterday gave them an extra ~3 undeserved, phantom runs. The Dodgers almost fall of this list as they had some bad luck yesterday with Kershaw on the mound and only putting 1 run on the board despite having runners on the bases everywhere.

  9. #9
    Love The Action
    Love The Action's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 10,952
    Betpoints: 3454

    Interested. Looking forward to discussing further when I have more time. Good luck.

  10. #10
    LizReed44
    LizReed44's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-16-11
    Posts: 831

    Nice research young man - those who win over the long haul are those who consistently put in the work, which you clearly have done.

    So I wish you good luck and be sure to maintain that work ethic.

  11. #11
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    YTD: 2-0 (+2.41)

    May 26

    Toronto +160 (1 to win 1.6)

    Texas at a whopping 27.85 runs above EV. Even if you subtract these extra runs, they still have the best offense in the league to the surprise of none, but they are still getting extremely lucky and their offense isn't this good. Hamilton, in particular, obviously, is due for regression.
    Toronto is also above EV by 13 runs, but I don't trust the under here due to the next reason.

    Colby Lewis is still due for some decent sized regression, while Alvarez is probably around where he should be, even a little improvement wouldn't surprise me as the year progresses.

    Toronto is sitting Kelly Johnson but Texas is sitting Napoli, who I consider the more valuable hitter. Toronto does have 2 weak links at the bottom of their lineup today, while Texas is strong throughout, as they always are.

    It only meets 3/5 filters but getting +160 here and meeting the two strongest filters (Texas being the #1 candidate for offensive regression and having a pitcher due for more than a little regression) makes this a 1 unit play for me.

  12. #12
    Vinnie Paz
    Vinnie Paz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-27-12
    Posts: 12,177
    Betpoints: 3413

    Nice thread you got going here bluff, keep er coming.

  13. #13
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    Tampa Bay Rays +105 (0.5 to win 0.525)

    Price and Beckett are both right around their regular numbers. Beckett due for a very, very slight improvement as the year goes on. Not really any significant decisions based on this, a very slight negative for the Tampa side.

    Boston is right there with Texas as fade material offenses for the near future, ranking second with 24.7 runs above EV. Tampa Bay is 2.92 runs above EV as well, so pretty much negligible numbers in regards to Tampa's offense. This is the strongest factor for this play. Over 21 runs between the two in "lucky run differential" is pretty significant.

    Tampa is also starting their (available) A team, while Boston is resting Saltalamacchia. Slight edge here to compensate for the starters.

    Pretty marginal play here since we are only getting +105 and it only meets 2.5/5 of my filters. One of the strongest ones is met, however, so I'm playing this one for a half unit. Might be worth a full unit if I had gotten it at the peak price of around +115.

  14. #14
    BigPage25
    BigPage25's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-17-12
    Posts: 3,571

    Quote Originally Posted by aznbluff View Post
    ytd: 2-0 (+2.41)

    may 26

    toronto +160 (1 to win 1.6

    texas at a whopping 27.85 runs above ev. Even if you subtract these extra runs, they still have the best offense in the league to the surprise of none, but they are still getting extremely lucky and their offense isn't this good. Hamilton, in particular, obviously, is due for regression.
    Toronto is also above ev by 13 runs, but i don't trust the under here due to the next reason.

    Colby lewis is still due for some decent sized regression, while alvarez is probably around where he should be, even a little improvement wouldn't surprise me as the year progresses.

    Toronto is sitting kelly johnson but texas is sitting napoli, who i consider the more valuable hitter. Toronto does have 2 weak links at the bottom of their lineup today, while texas is strong throughout, as they always are.

    It only meets 3/5 filters but getting +160 here and meeting the two strongest filters (texas being the #1 candidate for offensive regression and having a pitcher due for more than a little regression) makes this a 1 unit play for me.
    apparently josh hamiltion doesnt agree with your system

  15. #15
    Koldazzice
    Koldazzice's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-08-11
    Posts: 2,392
    Betpoints: 4245

    wow 2 bad luck losses - great work though - keep at it Abluff

  16. #16
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    2 walkoff losses yesterday, but not really "bad luck" since both Texas and Boston both should have scored more runs than they ended up with anyways. So actually, had "good luck" on those two fronts, which is essentially what my metric is trying to measure. If I'm doing it properly, then the team I'm betting against should be leaving more runners on the bases compared to the runs they are driving in.

    Unfortunately, Toronto also left a ton on base, which is my fault for betting on a team that is also near the top due for regression.

    Due for Offensive Regression Due for Improvement
    Texas 26.38774 San Diego -25.2173
    Boston 22.85933 Chi Cubs -19.1023
    Colorado 22.52254 Oakland -16.3007
    St. Louis 16.40938 Pittsburgh -12.1326
    Baltimore 15.45762 Minnesota -11.1073
    Toronto 11.96934 San Fran -10.8922
    Chi Sox 11.58431 Kansas City -9.54734
    Atlanta 11.42606 Arizona -8.85392

    Updated values.

    White Sox make their first appearance on the regression list, dropping off the Dodgers. Almost all of the top 6-7 teams due for regression from yesterday did indeed regress to varying degrees. Texas, despite scoring another 8 runs, actually "earned" about 2 runs back from the jaws of variance, so I can't say I got unlucky there with yesterdays loss, just a mistake by me.

    Kansas City makes their first appearance on the improvement list, and the Nationals drop off of it after another "lucky" 8 run performance. The Padres and Cubs just keep scoring higher and higher on this list, and I'll be looking for every opportunity to back them in the near future.

  17. #17
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    YTD 2-2 (+0.91)

    Kansas City Royals +128 (2u to win 2.56)

    First 2 unit play here, meeting 4.5/5 filters

    Hochevar is a candidate for reasonable improvement as the year progresses, while Matusz is due for slight regression. Both pitchers are similar caliber (both pretty bad) but one is running bad and one is running good.

    KC is -9.55 runs below EV and due for a bit of luck offensively, while Baltimore has rode a +15.46 runs above EV to the best record in the AL East. A matchup against a pitcher due for improvement seems to be the perfect spot for Baltimore to give some runs back to variance. Ditto for KC, a matchup against a pitcher due for slight regression seems to be a good spot for the offense to fluke some runs.

    Dyson sitting for KC, not giving them their full lineup and Baltimore starting theirs doesn't pass one of my filters. I don't think the dropoff from Dyson to a sub is noticeable enough to not make this play.

  18. #18
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    Rockies/Reds Under 9 +100 (1 to win 1)

    Latos is a candidate for major improvement still, as he has been doing for his last few starts now. Moyer is old, but he shouldn't be this bad, and should improve (slightly or moderately, I dont know).

    The Rockies offense is due to regress heavily, running over 22.5 runs above EV, while the Reds are only due for very slight improvement at -3.08 runs. Couple that with some decent hitters sitting in Helton and Fowler and this is a good spot for the Rockies offensive luck to give some runs back.

  19. #19
    Statistics
    Statistics's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-27-12
    Posts: 92
    Betpoints: 12

    I love the statistical fervor behind this thread!

    However, as an individual well educated in statistics, I would offer this piece of advice.

    Tread cautiously when attempting to use regression towards the mean for predicting a single game outcomes. Your model is built on the concept that in the long run, these teams EV for run production should normalize to zero, which is indeed true. However, many assumptions are made here; such as the fact that teams playing each other are equal (based on the principle that you're looking for teams due for a regression and/or improvements). Speaking of being due, this concept is very dangerous to use in the short run.

    I leave with you a basic introductory concept that I've learned in my undergraduate years.

    Assume a fair coin, the percentage of heads normalizes towards 50%; however, the value of this error increases in ABSOLUTE terms. See law of large numbers for more on this concept.

    Good luck with your system!

  20. #20
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    Aware of that, it normalizes because in the long run (infinite sample) it will come out 50/50 heads/tails and the individual first 10 or 20 or however many flips that were all heads are inconsequential. I'm basing it off the premise that the line is off because of misinterpretation of trends, not that the next game is the game that regression will happen. The latter is a logical fallacy in itself and statistically speaking, completely untrue.

  21. #21
    EVPlus
    EVPlus's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-07-12
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 451

    I'll be following this thread with a great deal of interest. One thing that you may find ironic is that your model will itself go through various stages of regression/improvement. In other words, don't get discouraged when you yourself experience the dips.

    And I appreciate the comment regarding the flipping of a fair coin. However, when dealing with highly competitive athletes who fluctuate through degrees of motivation for a given situation, there are disconnects. A fair coin does not have human factors such as pride.

  22. #22
    Allure
    Allure's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-10
    Posts: 7,589
    Betpoints: 15121

    You don't need to analyze anything. Just play against "teams" like Cubs and you're good.

  23. #23
    Statistics
    Statistics's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-27-12
    Posts: 92
    Betpoints: 12

    The law of large numbers is not a logical fallacy, but a proven statistical fact.

    I've provide an example comparing short run percentage/absolute error with long run percentage/absolute error.

    You flip a coin 10 times (assume fair)
    The percentage you can hit heads on are 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, etc etc.
    The absolute error you can be off on are 2 heads, 1 head, 0 heads, etc etc.

    You flip a coin 1000 times
    The percentage you can hit heads on are 47%, 48%, 49%, 50%, 51%, with values in between also.
    The absolute error you can be off on are 5,4,3,4,1,0, etc etc.

    The percentage error is expected to decrease towards 50%, but is likely to be off by some amount (to see this, it's easier to hit exactly 50% flipping 10 coins, than it is 1000 coins; due to the fact that you have to hit exactly 5 compared to exactly 500). The absolute error then, in the 1000 coins, is expected to be higher than the 10 coins.

    More concretely,

    You hit 4 heads out of 10. It's 40% heads, and an absolute error of 1.

    You hit 490 heads out of 1000 It's 49% heads, and an absolute error of 10.

  24. #24

  25. #25
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    You misread what I said

  26. #26
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    YTD 3-3 (+2.47u)

    Due for Offensive Regression Due for Improvement
    Texas 30.99018 San Diego -26.6052
    Colorado 23.81139 Chi Cubs -19.6731
    Boston 22.67829 Oakland -17.9712
    St. Louis 18.71955 Minnesota -12.9291
    Chi Sox 14.57004 San Fran -10.6447
    Baltimore 13.74528 Kansas City -9.82171
    Toronto 12.54342 Arizona -8.99607
    Atlanta 11.03055 Pittsburgh -8.6225

    Updated values

    Some trends I'm noticing are the White Sox climbing the luck ladder, Pittsburgh and Washington (now -6.93 runs) finally getting some lucky breaks, and the Padres/Cubs/Oakland just still can't get any runs in. I'm going to be doing my best to back the latter three teams at every opportunity that passes at least 3.5 filters over the next week. I will also be fading Texas at every good opportunity possible as well.

    Boston and Baltimore have started to give runs back, while Minny and Kansas City might be good, undervalued dogs for next week. The Phillies are inching closer and closer to the "due for improvement" list and the Angels have always been pretty close as well.

    On the flip side, the Dodgers are moving further and further away from the "due for regression" list, even though they scored 6 runs today. They're at a pretty reasonable +8.7 now.

  27. #27
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    May 28

    Cardinals/Braves Under 7.5 -113 (1.13 to win 1)

    Tommy Hansen is a candidate for moderate improvement as the year progresses, while Lance Lynn is a candidate for regression (to what degree I'm not sure).

    Both the Cardinals (+18.72) and Braves (+11.03) offensives are due for some bad luck stretches. Again, against a pitcher due for improvement, it seems like a good spot for the Cardinals offense to sputter a little.

    Freese is sitting for the Cardinals, and Berkman is out with injury of course. For the Braves, Freeman is sitting and Chipper is injured. That's 4 of the best hitters among the two teams out of the lineup.

    Lance Lynn and his uncertainty makes this play a little ambitious, but I will hope that his regression is only slight to moderate and that the Braves offensive regression is the stronger factor. This is probably real dumb, as this should in reality be a pretty easy pass.

    Meets 3.5/5 filters and would probably be a 4.5/5 filter 2 unit play if not for Lance Lynn's uncertainty to me. Nonetheless, I'll still play it for 1 unit here.

  28. #28
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    Nationals/Marlins Over 7.5 -102 (1.02 to win 1)

    Both pitchers are due for slight regression as the year progresses, Zimmerman slightly less so than Zambrano.

    Nationals (-6.93) and the Marlins (-5.59) are still due for some extra runs and the Nationals are starting to get hot.

    Both teams are fielding their available A team for this game. So this game meets all of my filters but it does so weakly on 4/5 of them, so I'm keeping it at 1 unit.

  29. #29
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    Orioles/Jays Under 10.5 -109 (1.09 to win 1)

    It's never nice to back 2 bad pitchers against 2 good offenses, but both pitchers are due for the tiniest bit of improvement so far. Couple that with both offenses near the top 5 due for regression combining for about -26 runs, and the Blue Jays sitting Arencibia and Escobar, I find a little bit of value with the under at a high 10.5 runs. Both teams should get plenty of hits and walks but should strand lots of runners today if my metric doesn't completely suck.

  30. #30
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    Yankees +129 (1 to win 1.29)

    Weaver, as good as he is, is due for moderate regression, while Hughes is due for slight improvement as the year progresses. With the Yankees fielding their full lineup, and LA resting Callaspo, this seems to be a good spot for the two pitchers to give and get a little bit back from variance.

    The Yankees offense is only +1.93 runs above EV, however the Angels offense is at -6.58, so they do have that angle going for them.

    Meets only 3/5 filters but the two it fails, it only barely fails them so I'll be playing this for 1 unit.

  31. #31
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    Due for Offensive Regression Due for Improvement
    Texas 30.4591032 San Diego -26.506
    Colorado 25.7999423 Oakland -19.6316
    Boston 23.3851039 Chi Cubs -15.3216
    St. Louis 18.5568707 Minnesota -12.5004
    Chi Sox 13.5289646 San Fran -11.0353
    Toronto 13.1895689 Arizona -10.8342
    Baltimore 11.971709 Pittsburgh -9.14694
    Atlanta 10.5512895 Kansas City -8.91936

    Updated values

    I'm starting to pick up the strengths and weaknesses of the system so far. Looks like I need to be stricter on my plays by only playing when 4+ filters are met, but the sample size is still way too small to draw conclusions. I'll apply an overall filter of playing only 4+/5 met for the next 20 plays and re-evaluate after that. Problem is that there is probably less than 1 of these plays every day.

    So far, overall, can't really be too displeased with the results to date. Gaping holes in my methods are being exposed so all I can do is try to adjust as best I can.

    Ytd 5-5 (+2.34)

  32. #32
    EVPlus
    EVPlus's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-07-12
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 451


    I'm starting to pick up the strengths and weaknesses of the system so far. Looks like I need to be stricter on my plays by only playing when 4+ filters are met, but the sample size is still way too small to draw conclusions. I'll apply an overall filter of playing only 4+/5 met for the next 20 plays and re-evaluate after that. Problem is that there is probably less than 1 of these plays every day.

    So far, overall, can't really be too displeased with the results to date. Gaping holes in my methods are being exposed so all I can do is try to adjust as best I can.

    Ytd 5-5 (+2.34)
    There's no rule that says you have to make a play or multiple plays every day. A more strict criteria might do your model some good in terms of breaking past the dreaded 50% hit rate.

  33. #33
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    Due for Offensive Regression Due for Improvement
    Texas 30.7307257 San Diego -26.8357
    Colorado 25.8984703 Oakland -21.6629
    Boston 23.8064067 Chi Cubs -14.0586
    St. Louis 18.4321562 Minnesota -14.0229
    Chi Sox 15.0456777 Arizona -13.3521
    Toronto 14.7614135 San Fran -11.5085
    Atlanta 11.9699967 Pittsburgh -9.6066
    Baltimore 11.1949625 Washington -9.10361

    Updated values

    Nothing passed the stricter set of filters yesterday.

    Cubs are starting to get runs back, while Arizona is starting to give them away. Washington re-appears on the improvement list in place of Kansas City.

  34. #34
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    Due for Offensive Regression Due for Improvement
    Colorado 33.016962 San Diego -26.9932
    Texas 31.5539241 Oakland -23.4372
    Boston 24.1073418 Arizona -14.5491
    St. Louis 19.0539241 San Fran -14.3481
    Toronto 14.6582278 Minnesota -14.1446
    Atlanta 14.4063291 Chi Cubs -13.039
    Chi Sox 13.0093671 Pittsburgh -10.8711
    Baltimore 9.46101266 Washington -10.1395

    Finally have a few plays meet my criteria today

    YTD 5-5 (+2.34)

    Oakland +139 (2 to win 2.78)

    Regression from Paulino and improvement from Colon drive this play. A difference of over 15 on my metric is another strong factor but I don't like that Kansas City is still -7.19. I'd much rather it be a +10 against a -10 than a -7 against a -25.

    Oakland gets Cespedes back for this game and is fielding their A roster, while Kansas City is batting Betancourt second today right in front of Butler. I like the dynamics of the lineups to favor Oakland at the +139 price

  35. #35
    eleuropeano
    eleuropeano's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-06-11
    Posts: 392
    Betpoints: 1924

    Is this thread dead? are you no longer doing the analysis?

12 Last
Top