1. #1
    BuddyBear
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    Some thoughts on the DET/CLEV game tonight

    My first thought is that the Tigers are a donkey bet tonight. Big public team with their #2 starter on the hill tonight, small road favorite, facing a relatively unknown pitcher.

    But in thinking this over a bit more and going over the data, both Doug Fister and Zach McAllister are right-handed pitchers who are going to be facing primarily left handed batters tonight. Based on last night's exact lineups, McAllister will face 6 lefties (cf. Cabrara, Young, and Peralta) and Fister will face 8 lefties (cf. Lopez). So probably the best question to ask in handicapping this game is which pitcher will fare better against left-handed hitting?

    Well, a look at the numbers reveals an interesting set of findings. First, career numbers, left-handed batters vs. Fister are batting .252, slg = .365 (TBF = 1080) while left-handed batters against McAllister are batting .321 and slg = .427 (TBF = 89). Sure it is a smaller sample size for ZM, but it gives you an idea but for DF it's a larger sample size that is normalizing. Now, based on CLEV's lineup from last night, they are 31/112 = .276 in their career against DF while the Tigers are 2/13 = .153 against ZM which is too small a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusion especially with 3 of their left-handed batters having never faced him. To top it off, the 3 right-handed batters the Tigers will trot out tonight are Miguel Cabrara (best right handed hitter in the game, along with Ryan Braun and David Wright I should say), Johnny Peralta (in his career he hits righties better than lefties .271 vs. .259) and Delmon Young (not as good against right-handed pitching). ADVANTAGE: DOUG FISTER

    To date, DF has been very sharp despite not winning a game. His ERA is 1.59 with a WHIP of 1.15 but these numbers are not sustainable and his peripherals suggest a regression eventually but when it will come I am not sure. ZM, on the other hand, has a much higher ERA 4.34 with a WHIP 1.23 but his peripherals are more or less in line with his current ERA. ADVANTAGE: DOUG FISTER

    On strikeouts: Ptichers that have high K/9 are desireable because a strikeout is the single best outcome you can get as a pitcher. ZM has a better strikeout rate 9.16 k/9 (2.89 BB/9) vs. DF 7.54 K/9 (1.99 BB/9). But in exploring the data more, DF strikes out left-handed batters at a slightly higher rate, 16.48% to 13.42% (note, not necessarily statistically significant) while ZM strikes out left-handed and right handed batters at the same rate, 20.22% vs. 20.00%. ADVANTAGE: slight edge to DOUG FISTER


    On the bullpen: What can I say other than the Tiger bullpen sucks and that is the wild card here tnght. Now, a strong pitching performence from DF could mitigate that and a good offensive showing too could make the bullpen's role far less important. The saving grace is that the Cleveland bullpen is nothing special, although better. ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND


    Other things of note: Cleveland is NOT a good team especially with Johnny Damon in the lineup. They have a -2 run differential but are 6 games over .500. That should not be the case and it will catch up soon. Detroit, on the other hand, is underachieving majorly, and have a -7 run differential but are 2 games under .500 which is exactly right. Cleveland has been a money maker this season while Detroit has been a money burner. But Cleveland has actually been a money burner at home while Detroit's best role is on the road (note: still a money burner but you don't lay the overpriced juice on the road). Plus, Detroit has been alternating wins and losses for about 5 weeks now so I like them to comeback today and take this game behind a strong pitching performance from Doug Fister.

    Donkey bet or not, I would say Tigers as a small fav or pass. Det has the better overall team, better overall pitcher, and CLEV has no real home field advantage to speak of. This is a team the Tigers dominated last year. The only discernable advantage CLEV has is their bullpen and even that is not a very large advantage. The other big advantage CLEV has is that DET is playing poorly and have yet to find their groove and the price reflects that. But based purely on handicapping the starters, DET has the major advantage.

    Good luck tonight.
    Last edited by BuddyBear; 05-23-12 at 04:10 PM.

  2. #2
    BuddyBear
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    Update: Lineups are out. CLEV lineup is the same as last night. DET lineup has two important changes. 1) Gerald Lair is in for Avila. He has been a little bit better offensively than Avila, but AA is still the better of the two catchers. 2) Quintin Berry is making his major league debut tonight. He is a left-handed batter and will be batting in the leadoff spot. Leyland continues to try to get something going at the top of the lineup for Cabrara and Fielder.

    I still think the Tigers are going to win, but am more cautious now since in effect they have a guy making his major debut and a back up catcher in the lineup. Fister has to be good tonight for DET to win.

  3. #3
    remeedella
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    anyone who can write a whole story about a one day pick can get a few units on detroit I suppose

  4. #4
    BuddyBear
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    Good news for Tiger backers is that Ryan Raburn is gone for this series. Along with Emmanuel Burris, this guy is one of the worst offensive players in the majors.

  5. #5
    pattymayo
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    Tigers lose again tonight, Cleveland is hot right now

  6. #6
    DudleyDawson
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    80% on Det and line has dropped 15 cents.

  7. #7
    BuddyBear
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    Quote Originally Posted by pattymayo View Post
    Tigers lose again tonight, Cleveland is hot right now

    I would not be surprised. It's priced in such a way to suggest that the Tigers, despite having the more proven starter and capable offense, are not playing well enough to beat this team. I may just lay off.

  8. #8
    DudleyDawson
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    Tigers are like the Yankees right now....inflated lines cause the public perception is that they're good. They're just not that good right now.

  9. #9
    billysink
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    It is very hard to back Fister against Cleveland's loaded left hand lineup. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher with an awful defence, both in range and FP. Cleveland does not strike out much at all against righties, both their contact rate and walk rate are amongst the highest in the league against right handed pitchers.

    A very good rule of thumb with Cleveland is to play them against a right hander and fade them against a left hander. Their batting average and OPS bear that out explicitly.
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  10. #10
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by DudleyDawson View Post
    Tigers are like the Yankees right now....inflated lines cause the public perception is that they're good. They're just not that good right now.
    They are not that good period.

  11. #11
    vikingfan101
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    I couldn't decide either way which team to choose, so just went with Fister over 5 K's tonight at even money. Has done fairly well K whise vs them, so hopefully it will continue tonight.

  12. #12
    EVPlus
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    A good write up. Speaking of line movements, it dropped sharply from 104 to 102 from about 2:10 to 2:30 then rose back to 104 in about 30-40 minutes. Of course, this may not mean anything. But those who use line movements in their capping might want to look into it a little more if they're considering playing this game. BOL

  13. #13
    billysink
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    This game is a perfect example of why Cleveland is such an under the radar play. Fister is gonna throw almost 30 pitches in the first inning. The Indians are so patient at the plate, it is hard for a righty to go 6.

  14. #14
    HoulihansTX
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    Took Cleveland. They are streaking, and an extremely left-handed team vs an overrated righty.

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