1. #1
    Brp27345
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    ***BRP 4/29 Bases - 20-9 +14.75 Units on Year***

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  2. #2
    Brp27345
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    The Hot Streak: April 29,2012

    6:27 AM Daily Shootout No comments


    BRP’s Picks – April 29th, 2012
    YTD (20-9) +14.75 Units


    2:15 P.M. – Milwaukee Brewers (Zack Greinke) @ St. Louis Cardinals (Jaime Garcia)
    The Cardinals just continue to win, rolling on, and in the process putting up 25 runs in their last 3 games. The Cards come into this game at 14-7 and 6-2 at home, while the Brewers come in at 9-12 and just 3-6 on the road. The Cardinals have also dominated this series as of late, winning 8 of their last 10 games against the Brewers.


    Jaime Garcia is pitching at home, you know what that means, cash. Garcia’s 2.17 E.R.A. over the last 3 seasons at home is phenomenal, and more than 2 points lower than his E.R.A. on the road. Garcia is also 5-1 with a 1.6 E.R.A. in the month of April over that same span, and has done very well against the Brewers posting a 2.72 E.R.A. when facing them. Garcia hasn’t done anything to let down on those numbers so far this season either. He has gone 2-0 with a 2.49 E.R.A., and has a 1.29 E.R.A. in his home ball park so far this year.


    We all know how good Zack Greinke is, or at least how much value his name carries in Vegas. Greinke regressed a bit last season, as his 3.83 E.R.A. was right in line with his career average, and for the second consecutive season was more than 1.5 points higher then the Greinke everyone still pictures in their head of 2009. Greinke was also terrible away from home last season, posting a 4.70 E.R.A., which is something you would never expect to see from an “Ace” pitcher. He has also gotten off to a slow start this season with a 4.56 E.R.A. so far. The fact is, he really isn’t one, and yet is priced as one.
    Jaime at home vs. an overvalued Greinke… Roll Big!!!


    Cardinals at -115 (3.45 units to win 3)
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2:10 P.M. – Kansas City Royals (Bruce Chen) @ Minnesota Twins (Jason Marquis)


    The rains came yesterday, the matchup didn’t change, neither does the analysis. The Royals are not as bad as their current 6-14 record, the Twins are as bad as their 5-15 record suggests though. The Royals seem to have woken up a bit winning their last 3, while the Twins have lost all of their last 6 games. The Royals have also quite inexplicably gone 6-4 on the road this year, while going 0-10 at home.


    Bruce Chen is 34 years old, his career E.R.A. is 4.5, this guy is a joke. The thing is though Chen has figured out how to turn back the clock over the last season plus. He didn’t really turn back the clock to how he pitched before though, he went out and bought a brand new watch. Chen’s 3.77 E.R.A. last season, and 2.52 E.R.A. so far this season show great improvements. Chen also posted a very impressive 2.39 E.R.A. against the Twins last season in 4 games against them.


    Jason Marquis is 33 years old, his career E.R.A. is 4.57, this guy is a joke. No caveat here.
    Royals bats are hot, better team, better pitcher, playing better, even money, Roll!!!


    Royals at -115 (3.45 units to win 3)
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    4:05 P.M. – San Diego Padres (Clayton Richard) @ San Francisco Giants (Madison Bumgarner)


    The Padres come into this game, well playing like the Padres. They are 7-15 on the year, including a 2-6 record on the road, and have managed to score just 2.7 runs per game over their last 10 contests. They have scored more than 2 runs just 3 times in that span, and they aren’t facing the likes of Eric Hacker, Joe Blanton, or Juan Nicasio today. The Giants come in at 11-10, and 5-3 at home, and have taken 7 of the last 10 games in this series from the Padres.


    Clayton Richard isn’t that good of a pitcher, but when you take him away from home the wheels fall off. Richard has an E.R.A. of 4.8 on the road over the last 3 seasons, and last year that jumped to 5.3 away from his pitcher friendly park. That has continued this season as to go along with Richard’s rather high 5.11 E.R.A. coming into the game, he is also sporting a 9.53 E.R.A. on the road so far this season.


    Madison Bumgarner just recently signed a major contract with the Giants, and he is pitching like he deserves every penny he is getting. Bumgarner’s career 3.09 E.R.A. is very impressive, and he has done even better so far this year going 3-1 and posting a 2.96 E.R.A. along the way. This kid has ACE potential, and if it wasn’t for the fact he is 22 years old, and probably the 3rd best pitcher on his own team, he would probably be valued like one, I’m glad he’s not!


    Fading Richard on the road against an ACE quality pitcher, Roll!!!


    Giants RL -1 at -110 (3.3 units to win 3)

  3. #3
    Brp27345
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    thoughts an comments appreciated!!!

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