[jasper90]

Does anyone know the percent of games won by 1?

[BettingWizard]

27.

[wade1]

It's 27% but when I bet the -1.5 RL it's more like 50%

[killawookie]

Of that 27%.. how many are predictable close called games? I doubt too many of that percentage is lop-sided matchups that ends in comeback last inning

[jasper90]

It's 27% but when I bet the -1.5 RL it's more like 50%

lol, that's kind of why i was wondering...i always choose the wrong side lol

[jasper90]

think you can make profit betting both the fav runline and the alternate dog runline? I think im going to try it out, just small amounts of course

[Les_Nuts]

I find that betting a dog on the RL when the total is 6.5 or less is quite profitable. Worked last night with Nationals +1.5. I don't have stats for one run games with totals under 6.5 but I'm sure it is higher than 27%. Also specific teams like Nationals etc are often involved in close games

[StackinGreen]

think you can make profit betting both the fav runline and the alternate dog runline? I think im going to try it out, just small amounts of course

Depends which games you play, because you have to move the % of 1 run results (double win) past the juice on the dog +1.5 ... notice that either way you have to "cap" some aspect or have criteria for selected games

[StackinGreen]

I find that betting a dog on the RL when the total is 6.5 or less is quite profitable. Worked last night with Nationals +1.5. I don't have stats for one run games with totals under 6.5 but I'm sure it is higher than 27%. Also specific teams like Nationals etc are often involved in close games

Good thinking. I'm sure they put that into price though and you're still always laying cash. I guess you are saying that they can win, though, and when they lose, it's very rarely by more than 1. Cool

[Les_Nuts]

Good thinking. I'm sure they put that into price though and you're still always laying cash. I guess you are saying that they can win, though, and when they lose, it's very rarely by more than 1. Cool

Yeah. Rarely in low total games does the no. of runs soar over. Its usually around 4-8 so games are often competitive. I actually got -110 on Nationals +1.5 last night which was just a lucky line as it was -150 elsewhere. I like Pirates +1.5 today even though it is a 7.5 total

[jasper90]

Oh, when i said alt runline, i meant like team A has +150 -1.5 run, and team B has +200 -1.5 run...

[gryfyn1]

From 2006-2009 26.9% games were decided by 1 run, games averaged 9.5 runs per game.
From 2010-2011 30.2% games were decided by 1 run, games averaged 8.7 runs per game.
So far this year 33.0% games were decided by 1 run, games averaged 8.4 runs per game

Last year among teams that averaged less than 8 runs per game (6 teams) 32.3 % were 1 run games
Last year among teams that averages more than 9 runs per game (7 teams) 28.8% were 1 run games*

that includes Toronto whose games averaged 9.3 runs, yet they played the 2nd highest percent of 1 run games, 35.2%

[gryfyn1]

Oh, when i said alt runline, i meant like team A has +150 -1.5 run, and team B has +200 -1.5 run...

big time loser.

If you say that 30% of games end in 1 run: 100 games bets, 200 wagers, 30 games end in 1 run, 60 loses in those game, 70 winners in the other 70 games. So 70 winners out of 200 bets which means the bets need to average about +185. Even at 25% 1 run games you need to average +166.

[HoulihansTX]