1. #1
    Squirrel Kokomo
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    The Squirrel 4.25.2012

    4.25.2012:

    Atlanta Braves (11-7) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (13-5) -103

    3* Play




    The line has been moving towards the Braves all day with what I believe is a majority % of the bets going on the Dodgers. I think in the last hour the line will stick where it is or swing back with more juice on Los Angeles so I am grabbing this now.

    It appears that we will see a good pitching match-up tonight as Brandon Beachy (2-1 0.47 ERA) squares off against Ted Lilly (2-0 0.69 ERA). Lilly has faced the Astros and Padres in his pair of starts, and Beachy has gone up against a slightly tougher slate in the Astros, Brewers, and Diamondbacks in his 3.

    While Lilly has not faced the toughest of competition, he is off to a very hot start nonetheless and is the more experienced pitcher. In addition to this, in 112 at bats Brave hitters sport just a .205 batting average against him in their careers. Uggla is the only Braves hitter that has had reasonable success against Lilly. In his only start against the Braves in the 2011 campaign, Lilly went 7 innings allowing no earned runs and getting the win in a 4-2 Dodgers victory.

    Turning the page, Dodgers hitters are 10-34 (.294) career against Beachy. In his only start last year against LA in September he allowed 3 earned runs in 6 innings of work, getting the loss. Furthermore, although Beachy has faced slightly tougher competition than Lilly to earn his sub-1 ERA, his BABIP of .207 and xFIP of 3.87 hint that his ERA may come back to earth a lot sooner than later.

    Add to the above that the Dodgers are at home, the Braves have cooled down a bit with the scoring the last 4 games after a blazing hot stretch, and -- although I don't like those guys a ton -- I give the Dodgers a slight bullpen advantage. I like L.A. to keep the hot start going and get a win tonight.
    Last edited by Squirrel Kokomo; 04-25-12 at 08:31 PM.

  2. #2
    Squirrel Kokomo
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    Good luck everyone.

  3. #3
    Dexter
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    it was a good writeup at least....

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