Originally Posted by
MagicDiceFlow
I've been betting these since 1997 and made many mistakes when I just started out. These are very tempting bets and may appear fast and easy. You have to pick your spots and don't just go blindly across the board just to get a quick fix. Thats a recipe for disaster.
Yesterday was a good day for the No score but in the course of a season, you will see it even out to about 53% NO /47% YES. Given those odds, it may appear that the No bets have the advantage but not really. The chalk that must be layed from -120 to -170 for the No, the Yes bets are actually more profitable in the long run.
Also, the first inning is sometimes the most volatile even for the best pitchers. It takes them an inning or two to get warmed up. That's why you'll see sometimes a great pitcher will give up a run in the first inning then will proceed to shutout the rest of the game. I've seen it happen to all the best from Halladay to Verlander.
Also, if you get a leadoff double, you're pretty much screwed as that runner will score over 60% of the time. The leadoff hitter is gonna be your quickest player most of the time and another single or two sacrifices....heck you dont even need another base hit sometimes.......he scores.
Remember, the key is picking good spots with considerations to not only pitchers but the opposing hitting lineups from 1-4 and a vital but often overlooked component is the quality of their leadoff hitter(does he have a good on base percentage)?
Best of luck on all your bets and hope everyone has a great MLB season!