Marlins -1 -125 Risk 1.25

I wish Johnson had a better spring but his numbers in spring are usually pretty average. Injured last year he only pitched in 9 games, but he had some excellent numbers in the games he did pitch, putting up a 1.64 ERA and he went 3-1 in his short season. Lohse hasnt had great numbers against the Marlins with an ERA around 6 and 1.52 whip in his 6 starts against them but he did a have a good spring and is coming off a great year, but is pretty erratic at times. I am kind of surprised to see him opening this, last year was impressive but that wasn't par for the course for Lohse.

From what I am reading, Marlins park doesn't seem to be a hitters park. I usually stay away from totals this time of the year until you really see how fit these pitchers really are. I would lean towards Johnson and Lohse going at least 6 with all the hype around the stadium and the marlins and national tv. Johnson is showing some of the best stats in baseball for unders in the last 15 games he has pitched, but it is still too early and too long a season to see him get into a big pitch count here. Johnson did have a pretty high number of walks in preseason, but Bell should be great to watch in relief.

Bullpens continually are my sore spot but Bell should be interesting to watch and the Cardinals may not have big names but they have Motte and Salas. I am just staying away from the total here but I would lean towards an under on the cards total. Looking at stats for the Cardinals against Johnson, you have to take into account the fact that Pujols was just so absolutely dominant against Johnson, otherwise Johnson had pretty decent numbers in his few outings against the Cardinals. I have my doubts about Beltran and how effective he will be this year and he doesnt have impressive numbers against Johnson, but Holliday and Berkman have put up good numbers against Johnson.

Cardinals have dominated this series lately, winning their last 5 against the marlins and 20-7 over their last 27. I just think the Marlins showing off a new stadium, a new manager , Reyes and Ramirez and one of the better pitchers in baseball when he is healthy, against a Cardinals team adjusting to a post pujols/larussa world and the numbers the Marlins are showing against Lohse, the Marlins are worth a punt at the -1 number.