[skyscrapers]

Last season, I decided to collect some data and test an almost identical system in the latter half of the season and it turns out to be profitable in terms of winning percentage. I don't know the dollar figure that I would have won because I wasn't actually betting on it but this season I'll be putting money into it.


This season's modified plan:
- Wait till a home team loses game 1 then chase beginning game 2 using the simple but riskier Martingale system.
- Game 2 wins chase is over; game 2 loses move to game 3. If it's a 4-game series and game 4 is necessary, we'll chase depending on the situation.
- 2-game series and road series (for the time being) will not be played.
- Only chasing with teams that have a .500 home record. At the beginning of this season we'll determine the teams by their projected win totals of 81 or more wins. Over the last decade, every single team with 81+ wins have at least a .500 home record except for 1 team - the 2003 Royals.
- The results indicate the teams that we'll only chase for now are these 18 teams: ARI, ATL, BOS, CIN, COL, DET, LAA, LAD, MIA, MIL, NYY, PHI, SF, STL, TB, TEX, TOR, & WSH
- If a game is postponed and results in less than 2 games in that series, we take the loss and chase is over.
- If a game is postponed and results in a doubleheader please see below...

Example:
Chase Home Team ‘X’ in a 3-game series with a base unit of $10.
Home Team ‘X’ loses game 1 so we can begin the chase starting game 2.
The line is (-110) so therefore we will risk $11 to win our base unit of $10.
If Home Team ‘X’ wins then good, the chase is over and we will have won $10.
If we lose then we move on to the second leg which is game 3.
The line for the second leg is say (-110) again therefore we’ll risk $23.10 to win $21.
If they win, the chase is over we will have won $10 in this sequence.
If they lose, the chase is also over and we take a $34.10 loss and move on to the next series.


Last season's home series records of 3+ games:

(home record) chase from gm.1 / chase after losing gm.1
NYY (52-29) 23-2 / 11-2
TB (47-34) 23-1 / 9-1
BOS (45-36) 21-2 / 14-2
TOR (42-39) 22-1 / 10-1
BAL (39-42) 22-2 / 10-2

DET (50-31) 22-2 / 10-2
CLE (44-37) 23-3 / 5-3
KC (40-41) 20-2 / 12-2
CHW (36-45) 20-3 / 9-3
MIN (33-48) 17-5 / 11-5

TEX (52-29) 26-0 / 5-0
LAA (45-36) 22-3 / 9-3
OAK (43-38) 21-2 / 11-2
SEA (39-45) 20-4 / 5-4

PHI (52-29) 22-1 / 7-1
ATL (47-34) 24-1 / 11-1
WSH (44-36) 24-1 / 9-1
NYM (34-47) 20-4 / 11-4
MIA (31-47) 20-5 / 9-5

MIL (57-24) 24-1 / 9-1
STL (45-36) 22-2 / 12-2
CIN (42-39) 19-3 / 10-3
CHC (39-42) 24-2 / 11-2
PIT (36-45) 21-3 / 9-3
HOU (31-50) 20-6 / 11-6

ARI (51-30) 24-0 / 10-0
SF (46-35) 23-2 / 12-2
LAD (42-39) 22-2 / 7-2
COL (38-43) 20-3 / 9-3
SD (35-46) 22-2 / 14-2

all teams: 653-70 (.903) / 292-70 (.807)
home record over .500: 407-29 (.933) / 171-29 (.855)

Although chasing beginning from game 1 will yield a higher percentage, the risks are higher and will require a much larger bankroll.
As you can see the percentages are significantly higher when we filter out the teams that's under .500 at home.


Doubleheader chases:

- All-time only 26.2% of all doubleheaders end in a sweep.
- Since 2006, 48% of all doubleheaders ended in a sweep BUT of those 48% only 43.3% the home team loses both games. That means of all doubleheaders since 2006, the home team has gotten swept only 20.8% of the time.
- Expect me to bet a higher than usual amount on these types of situations.

Depending on the results on Thursday Apr. 05, we shall begin chasing Friday.
Good luck all...let's make some money!!!
All comments are welcome.

[boroguy14]

Although I think it's a little riskier at beginning of the season not being sure how 2011 records will translate to this season, I like your system. The 2-game chase versus the 3-6 game chases I have seen on MLB and other sports is also refreshing and appears to be profitable based on your info. Thanks for the effort and for posting, I will be tailing.
My question is I assume you are simply taking the moneyline on the home team in each game whether favorite or underdog, correct?

[skyscrapers]

Although I think it's a little riskier at beginning of the season not being sure how 2011 records will translate to this season, I like your system. The 2-game chase versus the 3-6 game chases I have seen on MLB and other sports is also refreshing and appears to be profitable based on your info. Thanks for the effort and for posting, I will be tailing.
My question is I assume you are simply taking the moneyline on the home team in each game whether favorite or underdog, correct?

Yes, that is correct sir. I am just going to take the moneyline on the home team although for the heavy heavy favorites I might consider chasing the run-line instead depending on factors such as pitching & matchups etc...

[boroguy14]

Agree with you on the runline on heavy favorites. I've played a 3-game chase variation of JM system and occasionally use RL in those games, too. Let's make some $$$$!

[boroguy14]

Just did some calculations using 171-29 series record of last year on the 2-game chase and used an avg of -150 for the home team (assuming they will be favorite). If same record as last year and they lose 29 series again, each series loss would result in a loss of around 5 units which totals 145 units lost and 171 units won in the other series in which they won the 2nd or 3rd game. That would be a net profit of around 26 units for the season. That's not a bad figure depending on how much you're looking to win. However, if avg odds are -130 (very realistic depending on the starting pitcher for each team), the 29 lost series result in loss of 125 (about 4.3 units per series) units versus 171 wins for a net profit of 46 units.
In other words, I think the system shows good promise and I wanted to actually put some numbers behind it for others that are taking a look.

[skyscrapers]

Yes, the numbers you crunched are a close resemblance to what I've came up with. Although most of the home series have minus odds, a good number of series have + odds, for instance a good home team like MIL plays a good road team like PHI. The key I think is not to chase more than 2 games after a game 1 home loss. Given the 171-29 record, there's no need to chase a 4 game series.

Don't forget the double-header home chases too. I won't be surprised if we're able to make a profit of 60+ units!!

I've also worked some numbers for playoff series chases but let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet.

In World Series play, 20 of the 107 series all-time (18.7%) ended in a sweep.
Only 7 of those 20, the team with home court advantage gets swept (6.5%).

In LCS play, 18 of the 84 series all-time (21.4%) ended in a sweep.
Only 11 of those 18, the team with home court advantage gets swept (13.1%).
6 of the 11 series were best of 5.
5 of the 11 series were best of 7.

In LDS play, 28 of the 72 series all-time (38.9%) ended in a sweep.
Only 11 of those 28, the team with home court advantage gets swept (15.3%)
All series were best of 5.

The only differentiation with post-season chasing is
-Chase the team with home court advantage starting with Game 1.
-The chase continues on the road (games 3&4) if the home team loses games 1 & 2

[skyscrapers]

After looking at all the games from today, I'm considering chasing the Indians. They don't fit into my chasing criteria but I think they are pissed right now after blowing a 4-0 lead and then proceeded to play the longest opening day game in MLB history and then losing in 16 innings. I'm actually gonna cap this series before making a decision.

[mngambler]

mmmm smells like baseball season...I'll be following this thread and may jump on board

[boroguy14]

mmmm smells like baseball season...I'll be following this thread and may jump on board

I think your nose is correct....or maybe that's pancakes? LOL. Welcome! I think I am gonna lay off the Indians today....they still scare me although they usually play well when they play my Reds.

[skyscrapers]

Ya, who knows which Indians team is gonna show up after the wierd 1-day lay off inside a series. Also Jimenez might not be available for game 2 because of the suspension. Guess I'll lay it off too.

Tonight, I'm gonna pay attention to TEX, TB, LAA, MIL & ARI. If any of these home teams lose game 1 tonight, the chase is on for tomorrow.
Hoping at least one of these teams lose so I can finally get some action in to relieve the itch .

[1958]

Really liked your system, so I looked at it a little bit. I calculated from c o v e r s the losses, since odds are right there:

let's see

SD 14-2 losses -5,12 units
ARI 10-0 losses -0,00 units
COL 8-3 losses -8,00 units
SF 11-3 losses -11,11 units
LAD 5-4 losses -13,72 units (it is not 7-2 unless you bet the 4th game . BUT who dares to do it on heavy juice?)
should net = 14+10+8+11+5-5,12-8-11,11-13,72 = +10,05 units


LAA 8-4 losses -13,58 units
OAK 11-2 losses -6,22 units
SEA 5-4 losses -13,46 units
TEX 4-0 losses -0,00 units
should net = 8+11+5+4-13,58-6,22-13,48= -5,26 units

I can forward the excel sheet to anyone who wants to backtest it.

Also it seems that you can not tell which teams to chase: HOU is really a disaster and it showed (a loss of-17 units), but CHC also a bad team, looked good. Also good teams like BOS and NYY losing a couple of series can knock you dead.

Excellent effort though, I am not sure if I follow you but I will definately keep checking this thread.
Series should handicapped, no blind betting.

[skyscrapers]

Yes, the 4-game series is included in the records but I most likely won't chase that far...too risky...bankroll can't take such a big hit if a team does end up losing all 4.

You're correct that at the beginning of this season there's no way we can tell which teams to chase. What I did was we increased our chances by determining the teams by their projected win totals of 81 or more wins. Over the last decade, every single team with 81+ wins have at least a .500 home record except for 1 team.

The results indicated the teams that we'll only chase for now are any these 18 teams: ARI, ATL, BOS, CIN, COL, DET, LAA, LAD, MIA, MIL, NYY, PHI, SF, STL, TB, TEX, TOR, & WSH

Of course the teams could possibly change as the season moves along then we'll truly see which teams are above .500 at home.

I'm not going to flat bet all the series. I'm gonna cap the series to determine the wager size and be more selective.

Damn, TEX & TB is leading in the early games so far.

[skyscrapers]

The chase begins today...

Because this is a chase system and the potential for multiple chases in a day,
I'm going to keep my unit size low. I've set my 1 unit size to $20.
You may set whatever amount to the unit size as you may wish.
Good luck!!!

Chase #1 - Leg 1: STL @ MIL [-116] (1:05pm PDT)

This series scares me a bit as MIL has lost 11 of the past 14 games to STL and also got swept at Miller Park in a 3-game series last summer. STL is swinging a hot bat even without Pujols. Adam Wainwright hasn't pitched a regular season game in a year and a half so he could come out rusty but he did have a decent pre-season except for his last game. Game 2 starter Zack Greinke who has way better numbers against STL the last few years should have been the opening day starter but Roenicke opted to start Gallardo instead. Should this series go to game 3, I'm confident Randy Wolf should get the job done over rookie bullpenner turned starter Lance Lynn who'll temporarily replace Chris Carpenter.

Chasing small on this series (0.5 units) $11.60 to win $10

[1958]

have a wonderful season,

I checked the results fol all teams on 3 games home chases and it seems that all teams with home win record <45% would have resulted in money losses. So apart from CWS, MIN, PITT, SD, NYM, HOU and MIA only LAD had losses. I see you passed CHC and CLE.

[skyscrapers]

CWS, MIN, SD, NUM, HOU among others all have projected totals this year of well under 81 wins so not going to touch those teams yet. So until they can prove they can win at least 50% at home, I'm not gonna chase any of their home series.

MIA is an improved team with a projected win total of 85.5 so it falls into my home chase criteria. LAD is borderline at 81 so we'll see but for the time being I will chase them if the opportunity arises. They should be pumped with Magic Johnson buying the team.

I'm passing on CLE too, don't trust Jimenez, don't seem to have the big bats this year and Sizemore too often injured.
For the Cubs, well they are just garbage, can't win anywhere.

[1958]

Well, I am on all three possible plays! Looking good so far. My unit size is also low, not a serious bettor.

[boroguy14]

I am definitely going to be on the Brew Crew. Let's cash it TODAY!

[skyscrapers]

Well, I am on all three possible plays! Looking good so far. My unit size is also low, not a serious bettor.

Which three plays you on today my friend??

[skyscrapers]

Lucky I decided not to chase the Indians...Looks like they're going to lose in extras 2 games in a row .
Love the Blue Jays this season.

[boroguy14]

Nice win for us with the Brewers today to get system started off in the right way for the season! Thanks again for your efforts, Sky!

[skyscrapers]

Nice win for us with the Brewers today to get system started off in the right way for the season! Thanks again for your efforts, Sky!

Thank you sir...it's always nice to start the season off with a win.

I may or may not have a play on the Indians tomorrow morning...look over a few more things first.

Season Series Record: (1-0) +0.5 Units +$10

[skyscrapers]

Apr. 08 Sun.

Chase #2 - Leg 1: LAD @ SD [-113] Game 4

Technically, this is not really a chase but SD did lose the first 3 games at home and I'll take my chances that they won't lose 4 straight at home to the same opponent to start a season. In fact the last time SD started 0-4 was 18 years ago and the last time LAD swept SD in a 4-game series at home was back in 2001 when they played at Qualcomm Stadium.

Aaron Harang is back in SD after he signed with the LAD in the offseason but he is 0-4 (5.82 ERA) against them while Clayton Richard is 4-1 (2.58 ERA) all-time against LAD.

Chase for 1 unit $22.60-$20

[1958]

Which three plays you on today my friend??

I meant MIL, CHC and CLE. CLE and CHC just came through.

SD, MINN, HOU, SEA, MIA , PITT, CWS had the worst home records last year and I do not follow. GL with SD tonite!

[skyscrapers]

Winner Winner!!!
Good start to the system so far...

Season Series Record (2-0) +1.5 Units +$30

[skyscrapers]

Looks like I'm gonna chase the Phillies hard tomorrow

[skyscrapers]

Apr. 10 Tue.

Chase #3 - Leg 1: BOS @ TOR [+113] Game 2....Chase for 1 unit $20 to win $22.60

Chase #4 - Leg 1: STL @ CIN [-106] Game 2....Chase for 1 unit $21.20 to win $20

[boroguy14]

Let's do it tonite, Sky. I think my Reds will bounce back with the lumber tonite after last nite's pathetic display of offense! So when our team is underdog, you play it on the moneyline, right? The runline on Toronto +1.5 is only around -144......not bad.....

[skyscrapers]

Basically I chase a team who loses game 1 at home on the moneyline but it all depends. If I cap the series and I don't like it then I won't chase it.

Ya the Reds will have to win 1 of the next 2 against STL to have at least at 0.500 home stand to start the season so I think they will do just that. CIN have won 5 of 6 against STL at Great American Ball Park last season. I don't think STL without arguably their best player and manager will continue with it's torrid pace although they still will be a good team. It's gonna be a 3 team race to win the NL Central.

As for TOR, well I'm a Canadian so I'm gonna cheer for my boys!! The TOR runline is good but the juice is just too high for my liking. Good luck anyways!!

[1958]

what about Indians? I think they look better than Toronto? why not picking them?

[skyscrapers]

CLE not a really good home team so far so I'll pass on them for now

[skyscrapers]

Well. the CWS/CLE game is postponed due to snow...hoping for a doubleheader now

[skyscrapers]

Apr. 10 Tue.

Chase #3 - Leg 1: BOS @ TOR [+113] Game 2....Chase for 1 unit $20 to win $22.60 - WIN

Chase #4 - Leg 1: STL @ CIN [-106] Game 2....Chase for 1 unit $21.20 to win $20 - LOSS


Season Series Record:(3-0)+2.63 Units +$52.60 with 1 chase pending
Leg 1: (3-0)
Leg 2: Pending

[skyscrapers]

Apr. 11 Wed.

Chase #4 - Leg 2: STL @ CIN [-122] Game 3...Chase for 1 unit $50.26 to win $41.20

Chase #5 - Leg 1: FLA @ PHI [-136] Game 2...Chase for 0.5 unit $13.60 to win $10

[skyscrapers]

Unbelievable comback by the Reds for another series win!!!

[boroguy14]

You gotta love the Reds squeaking it out in last couple of innings! I was in between appts and checked my phone throughout the game and was pleasantly surprised when I saw the final score.