Ross explains his '33% Parlay System,' and how it can be profitable in the early part of the college football season when mismatches between I-A and I-AA schools are offered.
Wagering on parlays in any sport has always been something I have highly advised against with my clients. However, there is a huge difference when it comes to a betting system and professionally handicapped selections.
I have sometimes pounded my head up against the wall trying to get the novice to comprehend the difference between the two. Simply put, a betting system is arrived at by exposing a slight vulnerability in what a bookmaker allows us to do. These systems on most occasions are created and applied by mathematical calculations with no regards to the teams involved or conditions of the game itself. Contrarily, handicapped selections are the result of factors such as weather, past performance, injuries, trends, and statistics just to name a few.
College football, especially early in the season, gives us an opportunity to exercise a successful betting system. This is what I call my 33% parlay system. It involves wagering on a pair of two team parlays in the same game.
The first parlay is playing the favorite and over the total, while the other is to play on the underdog and under the total. Now to qualify the games we use a simple mathematical calculation. The point-spread must be 33% or greater than that of the total in a particular game, and then we would have a qualifier.
An example would have been last Saturday’s Vanderbilt at Michigan game. Michigan was -27 and the total 46.5. The point-spread of -27 was 58.1% of the total. This game far exceeded the 33%. The result was Michigan winning 27-17 and produced a winning parlay of Vanderbilt and the under. If you played 100.00 on each parlay, you would have lost 100.00 on Michigan and the over. You would have won 260.00 on Vanderbilt and the under. The net would be 160.00.
In order to accomplish this, you will need to find a sportsbook that has action on correlated parlays, and those are few.
You will also find as the season enters conference play the opportunities to apply this system will be greatly reduced. Early in the season you have more games involving schools from BCS conferences versus schools from non-BCS conferences. This is much due to the willingness of the non-BCS teams to play these games on the road solely for the purpose of collecting a huge revenue guarantee. These contests are more apt to produce the calculation that we are looking for.
You will also find that these types of situations rarely occur during the course of an NFL season. The simple reason is there are significantly less teams in the NFL and with the advent of the salary cap it has created more parity. In week one of the college football season we had 14 games that qualified under this betting system. We made a profit on 10 of the 14 games. Based on playing 100.00 per parlay and a 2.60 return you would have made a profit of 800.00.
The Winners: (+1600.00)
Vanderbilt +27 and under 46½ / Michigan 27 Vanderbilt 7
Penn St. -17½ and over 40½ / Penn St. 34 Akron 16
Idaho +29 and under 57 / Michigan St. 27 Idaho 17
West Virginia -21½ and over 45½ / West Virginia 42 Marshall 10
Nebraska -24½ and over 45½ / Nebraska 49 Louisiana Tech 10
UAB +24 and under 41½ / Oklahoma 24 UAB 17
Clemson -25½ and over 43 / Clemson 54 Florida Atlantic 6
Texas -40½ and over 53 / Texas 56 North Texas 7
LSU -30 and over 47 / LSU 45 Louisiana Lafayette 3
Louisville -22½ and over 59 / Louisville 59 Kentucky 28
The Losers: (-800.00)
Ohio State 35 Northern Illinois 12 (17½/49)
Washington 35 San Jose 29 (21/47)
Florida 34 Southern Miss 7 (20/46½)
Texas Tech 35 SMU 3 (24½/52½)