college football picks,free college football picks,college football odds,ul lafayette,north texas
10/15/2012 10:45:00 AM
My free college football pick selection is on North Texas plus the points as they host UL Lafayette. The public will bet UL Lafayette team on account of its 4-2 record, but as I will demonstrate, Mean Green is actually the superior team.
This is a 10* graded play on North Texas as they host
UL Lafayette. My plays are built upon a foundation of 5* graded plays.
Based on the neural network based simulator, they will build up from there to
10* and then the 20* Titans. The key to being successful at sports betting,
just as is it is in so many other endeavors in society, is to be disciplined.
We immediately associate discipline with the Marines or with doing
something that is not fun. Well, in my experience of 18-years handicapping
sports, discipline is what has kept me from financial disasters - now, that would have been no fun! It is always better not to force a bet and simply watch
the game for what it is, then to simply make a bet for no other reason than the
So, do yourself a favor and join me at the College Football with John Ryan thread each day.
There are dozens of contributors providing their insight not only to my
releases, but plays they find strong on their own merit and research. It is
College football odds makers currently favor visiting UL Lafayette by -4.
The simulator shows a high probability that North Texas will
win this game outright, so I am calling for the upset winner in this matchup.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 23-16
using the Money Line for 59% winners and has made a whopping 36 units per one
unit wagered since 2002. This system has averaged a +225 dog play.
Play on all dogs of +155 to +300 using the money line after
allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game and returning 8 or more
offensive starters including the quarterback and is now facing an opponent
returning five or less defensive starters. This system shows the importance,
and often overlooked, of team chemistry and experience with the offensive unit,
especially when going up against a defensive unit that is learning how to play
as a cohesive unit.
Tweaking this system to include just home dogs, regardless of
the money line level. the record improves dramatically to a 40-13 mark that has
made 41 units per one unit wagered since 2006. The average play drops to a +135
dog, but the winning percentage increases to 76%.
Black Jack Systems
I often refer to these systems as “Black Jack’ systems drawing an analogy to the ever popular casino game. There are huge differences, though. At the casino, you get a 50:50 payout for winning hands and are
rewarded more for the ‘21 winner winner chicken dinner’ hands. However, the
first system pays you 2.35:1 for every winning hand. Moreover, the odds at the
casino of winning a hand are essentially 50%. Yet, with the system, they
improve to 59% winners. So, it is obvious that playing this system has a far
greater probability of making you far more money than sitting a casino where
they control the action.
Strength of Schedule
First, records of college football teams are just that, number
of wins and losses. What is far more important, is who they played and what
those teams have done prior to their game and how they have performed since.
We just saw No. 5 West Virginia get destroyed by an unranked
Texas Tech team this past week and that was a 10* play released on my thread.
It is fact that I never expected the Red Raiders to throttle the Mountaineers,
but i did expect the upset win. In this Tuesday night game, LA-Lafayette has
the superior record, but the strength of their opponents pales in comparison to
who north Texas has played to date.
has played Lamar, at Troy, at Oklahoma State, Florida International, and
Tulane. Only Oklahoma State to whom they lost, 65-24, is a quality opponent on
that schedule. North Texas has played at LSU, Texas Southern, at Kansas State,
Troy, at Florida Atlanta and at Houston. So, the "seasoning" of playing a
vastly superior schedule will serve North Texas very well in this matchup.
Pick: Take North Texas plus the points and
consider adding a 3* amount on the money line.