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11/13/2012 12:41:00 PM
The Commodores have won four straight, cashing with a 3-1 ATS. They play their final home game Saturday’s against the Volunteers. We preview the game, considering important betting stats, before making our college football picks recommendation.
Vandy battles back at Ole Miss
Vanderbilt came away with a 27-26 victory in last week’s triumph against the Mississippi Rebels, holding on to cash as 2 ½-point road dogs. The Commodores trailed in the third quarter, 23-6, but reeled off a 21-3 run in the battle’s final 27 minutes.
Commodores quarterback Jordan Rodgers found wide out Chris Boyd for a late go-ahead touchdown while finishing with 267 passing yards. Vanderbilt’s Wesley Tate dashed for 43 yards on 15 carries out of the backfield, taking in one score.
The contest’s 53 points leaped above the ‘total’ of 50 ½, lifting the OVER to 4-3 in the Commodores’ last seven games. Vanderbilt ‘s defense gave up 458 total yards, while holding Mississippi to 8-for-21 in third-down conversions.
Volunteers fall short in overtime
Tennessee came out on the losing end of a wild 51-48 affair in last Saturday’s battle with the Missouri Tigers. The Volunteers allowed a pair of second half touchdowns to send the duel into overtime, followed by both squads combining for 43 points in the extra stanzas.
Tennessee’s Tyler Bray threw for 404 passing yards, connecting 37-of-54 attempts. The junior tossed one touchdown each to mates Justin Hunter and Mychal Rivera, who united for 19 catches.
The contest needed its additional periods for OVER tickets to cash, soaring above the ‘total’ of 61. Volunteers defensive back Prentiss Waggner grabbed his side’s sole interception in two weeks, while Tennessee finished with 32 first downs.
Back the OVER in Nashville
Vanderbilt opened as a 3 ½-point home favorite at Bookmaker.eu with the number quickly rising to 4 ½ at other shops. Football oddsmakers initially listed a ‘total’ of 59, while early OVER betting drove the digits north to 60.
I am agreeing with the early ‘steam’ in this spot, adding my own ticket on the OVER here.
Tennessee’s defense has allowed 43.3 PPG in its last three road contests, while bringing Bray’s sizable quarterback rating (150.2) into Vanderbilt Stadium. The OVER is 13-3-1 in the Volunteers’ last 17 games that followed a spot of notching more than 280 passing yards.
Vanderbilt’s Jordan Matthews and Tennessee’s Justin Hunter have combined for 1,982 receiving yards, ranking the two juniors among the Southeastern Conference’s top three wide outs. Matthews gained a sizable 12.3 YPR in last year’s 27-21 defeat for the Commodores against Tennessee.
Commodores running back Zac Stacy is listed as “probable” for this duel, leaving last week’s matchup early due to a leg injury. The school’s top rusher has averaged 5.3 YPC, while reaching paydirt for six touchdowns.
Vanderbilt has cashed OVER tickets at a 7-1 clip in its last eight games that followed a victory, while the same wager has collected at 7-2 in the Commodores last nine home dates. Look for the OVER to get the money again here, with an SEC shootout looming in the “Music City.”