In their third meeting in less than a year, the Washington Huskies and Nebraska Cornhuskers are set to battle once again. Most of the betting action has been in favor of Nebraska, but I believe that the better value lies with the Huskies.
In this college football free pick we are making a play on Washington as they take on No. 11 Nebraska set to start at 3:30 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database
and simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by
fewer than 17 points.
Only a light lean supporting the graded play on Washington as 60%
of all college football betting action is being made on the Nebraska Cornhuskers. In a bit of a rare situation the line
is moving slightly lower despite the majority of bets being made on Nebraska.
This is a reflection that the larger players are on Washington and taking the
points. In my 18-years of experience, the consensus data is a contrarian
indicator meaning that if the public makes more than 75% of their bets on the
one team then the opponent becomes the preferred possible play and would be playing on the book side of the game. It
is just one College Football handicapping tool and a solid bets must consist of several analyses
First Half Total Wager
Washington has played two superior opponents than what Nebraska
has faced through two weeks of action. This ‘seasoning’ will undoubtedly help
the Huskies, who are returning 15 starters, with seven on offense and eight on
defense. That defensive chemistry will be a big asset for them playing this
road game and as a result I do not see Nebraska having mush offensive success.
Here is a supporting system that has produced a 66-29 ‘under’
record for 70% winners since 1992. Play ‘under’ with all teams where the first half total
is 25 to 28 and is off 2 no-covers where the team won as an odds favorite. As
mentioned Nebraska is 2-0, but against very weak opponents and failed to cover
They opened up the season defeating Chattanooga 40-7 installed as 38
point favorites and then defeated Fresno State 42-29 installed as 28 point
favorites. Fresno State had closed to within 28-26 early in the fourth quarter
before Nebraska pulled away for the win. That is certainly not a solid 2-0
start and defense will be the focus for both teams.
Meetings in less than 365 days
This will mark the third meeting between the two teams in less
than year. In the first meeting the Nebraska Cornhuskers humiliated the Huskies scoring 56
points. Washington got their revenge though in the Holiday Bowl and limited
Nebraska to just seven points. That Huskie defense has eight returning starters
and they have the confidence knowing they can stop quarterback Taylor Martinez.
Nebraska Offensive and
In both games this season the offensive and defensive lines were
unable to dominate the opponent. This is not all that surprising given the
changes in personnel on both lines. Chemistry takes time to develop and
they will have an even greater test against Washington, who does have the
experience and chemistry on both sides of the ball.
This was a surprising move in my opinion to initiate a no-huddle
scheme against an inferior opponent in Chattanooga. Now, every team on the
cornhusker schedule knows that they have the no-huddle in their playbook.
Washington will be prepared well shoudl Nebraska look to increases the tempo of
the game. Keep in mind though it was largely a failure against Chattanooga with many plays not showing any sort of cohesiveness and rhythm.
My Pick: Take Washington and the points.