LSU Tigers,Alabama Crimson Tide
11/4/2011 10:29:00 AM
We have already broken down both the spread and the total for the "game of the century", so now lets talk about where to make your picks. Alabama might be ranked behind the LSU Tigers at the moment, but expect that to change this weekend.
Free college football picks on Alabama as they take on the LSU Tigers in what many have
coined ‘The Game of the Century’ set to start at 8:00 PM ET. There have been
arguably more Games of the Centuries, as it seems, then centuries, but this one
does validate itself to that hype and will be one that will go down in SEC
However, there has been a proliferation of media hype-happy
outlets and is precisely why this G.O.C. will be just another of long series of
games that lead to the next G.O.C hyped game. To qualify as a G.O.C. To factors
must be in place. First, both teams must be ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the majority
of the polls and second, they must be school with storied and legendary
histories behind them.
It has been almost 40 years to the day that the last ‘true’
G.O.C. Took place. This game also was the last time that the top two teams in
the nation each had an extra week of preparation. This game was when No. 1
Nebraska when into Norman, Oklahoma and defeated the No.2 Sooners 35-31 on
Thanksgiving Day. This game was viewed by 55 million people, which was a
With all of the cable channel choices that have exploded to this
day, this game will not have half that amount of viewers, if even a third. Back
in the 70’s there was just one station that carried college football, ABC, and
they could single handily direct and focus everyone’s attention on that one
game. This is why it is hard to grasp ahold of this matchup as a G.O.C, but it
will certainly be fun to watch given all the subplots and ramifications the
outcome will have in the SEC and BCS standings.
Enough of the history lesson and let’s now get down to the
business of making your college football picks for this game. Even with the hype of this game and the fact it
is on national prime TV is not a reason to force a bet. This has been one of
the most common characteristics of the losing sports bettor. Simply, making a bet
to get the rush that comes with a game of this magnitude and to be able to
watch every single second. If you learn just one thing from my experience it is
to never force a bet or to just make a play for the ‘action’ it provides.
Simulator Projections and
My proprietary college football handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Alabama will
win this game by six or more points. Supporting this graded play is a
system that has produced a record of 23-4 ATS for 85% winners since 2000. Play against road
dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games involving two explosive offensive
teams scoring 34 or kore points per game. Of the 27 plays made based on the
criteria of this game, 16 of them, or 62% have covered the spread by seven or
As discussed in my spread opener article, Alabama was favored by 4 but has since moved to 5 at most college football betting outlets. This is still a very small number in comparison to what the simulation has calculated.
is as second system supporting Alabama, but with criteria based on LSU. It has
gone 33-10 ATS for 77% winners since 1992. Play against road dogs in a game
involving two explosive offensive teams scoring 34 or more points per game and
after seven or more games and after scoring 37 points or more last game. Of the
43 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 26 of them, or 61% have
covered the spread by seven or more points.
simulator shows a series of game projections that work overwhelming in favor of
the Crimson Tide. The sim shows high probabilities exceeding 85% that Alabama
will score 28 or more points, will hold LSU to less than 250 offensive yards,
and will out gain LSU by 2.0 or more yards per play.
In past games where
Alabama has scored more than 28 points they are 6-1 ATS this season, 20-2 ATS
the past three seasons, and 77-31 ATS since 1992. In past games where they have
held their opponent to less than 250 offensive yards they are 6-1 ATS this
season, 13-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 55-27 ATS since 1992. In past
games where Alabama has out gained their opponent by 2.0 or more yards per game
they have posted a 4-1 ATS mark this season, 15-3 ATS the past three seasons,
and 49-15 ATS since 1992.
My Pick: Alabama
30-7 over LSU
Join the discussion and share your thoughts in my Alabama vs. LSU thread.