As we continue to provide our picks for the LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide battle, we turn our attention to betting the total. Should NCAAF bettors expect the Over or Under in this clash of the titans?
Free college football pick on the ‘UNDER’ LSU/Alabama set to start at 8:00 PM ET and will be televised by CBS national TV.
My proprietary college football handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 41 points will be scored in this game.
Bigdaddy QH contributed this to the thread early this week. "With little or no competition from the SEC East, the winner of this game will play in, and win the SEC title. The ONLY question is whether or not they run the table. LSU sill hosts Arkansas, and Alabama has a date at Auburn, so there are no guarantees, but it certainly appears that the winner goes to the NC game. Boise State needs everyone else to lose to get intp the Big game. If Oklahoma State or Stanford runs the table, they will advance. If both do, I give the edge to Oklahoma State based on their schedule."
The question now is, which defense will play better or is this going to end up being 9-3 epoch SEC battle of the trenches.
The winner of this game will be the winner of the battle of the line of scrimmage. In nearly every football game played, the team that can wear down the opposing defense is the team that ends up with the best chance to win the game. In this game we have a an extremely strong offensive line and power running game going up against a LSU defensive front that ranks No.2 in sacks and tackles.
In the FBS standings, LSU ranks 97th gaining 183.1 passing yards per game, 29th gaining 189.0 rushing yards per game, 10th allowing 174.8 passing yards per game, third allowing 76.6 rushing yards per game, and third allowing just 11.5 points per game.
By comparison, the Alabama Crimson Tide rank 61st in the FBS gaining 228.4 points per game, 13th gaining 229.3 rushing yards per game, second allowing 135.6 passing yards per game, first allowing just 44.9 rushing yards per game, and first allowing just 6.9 points per game.
Supporting System and Simulator Projections
Supporting this college football pick is a system that has produced a record of 120-68 ‘under’ since 2000. Of the 188 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 84 of them or 45% went ‘under’ the posted total by seven or more points. Play ‘under’ with any team against the posted total in a conference game involving two excellent defensive teams allowing 280 or fewer yards per game.
The simulator shows a significant probability that LSU will NOT score 14 or more points in this game. This has occurred just once in the past three seasons and that game went ‘under’ easily. Since 1992 they are 21-4 ‘under’ when scoring 14 or fewer points. Now, this is a self-fulfilling prophesy in many ways, but it is the simulator’s projections that give it valid meaning.
The simulator also shows that the LSU Tigers will have fewer than 150 net passing yards in this game. In past games where Alabama has allowed 150 or fewer net passing yards the ‘under’ has been the winning ticket for NCAAF bettors in three of four plays this season, posted 6-2 ‘under’ mark, and 29-10 ‘under’ mark since 1992.
These situations, angles, and trends all serve to reinforce the graded play produced by the simulator. By themselves they are nothing more than a history lesson, but when combined with the projections offer insight to why the play is one you can trust to play with confidence.
Let’s first look at some coaching roles entering this game supporting the ‘under’ play. Alabama head coach Saban is a solid 20-8 ‘under’ as a home favorite; 13-4 ‘under’ after playing three straight conference games; 8-1 ‘under’ in home games after covering the spread in four or five out of their last six games; 7-0 ‘under’ in home games after two consecutive covers as a favorite; 10-1 ‘under’ after three consecutive covers as a favorite; 8-0 ‘under’ in home games after two or more consecutive wins against the spread; 9-1 ‘under’ in home games after five or more consecutive straight up wins.
Alabama is a solid 11-1 ‘under’ in home games off three straight wins against conference rivals since 1992; 19-3 ‘under’ in home games after four or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. Moreover, the Alabama defense has done well against efficient passing teams noting they are 15-4 ‘under’ in home games facing good passing teams averaging eight or more passing yards per attempt since 1992.