The week's Friday night college football action pits the Hawaii Warriors against the San Jose State Spartans. Sportsbook odds makers have set Hawaii as the -6 favorites, but will we find better value as the week goes on?

College football odds makers opened this line exactally where I expected them to, and so far the early NCAAF betting action is two-way with nearly equal number of bets on both teams. Present numbers I am looking at show 53% of all bets being made on Hawaii and 47% on the home dog San Jose State. I don’t see this spread dropping much before Friday night and if anything I do believe the lines maker has this game pegged very well. 

Hawaii WarriorsAs a reminder, the sportsbook lines maker did not make this based on a prediction for the outcome of the game. He made this line based on the level where he expects the action to be equal. They do not care who wins the game, he only cares about establishing a static line that does not need to be adjusted up or down to react to the betting flows. 

The games that you see large line movements of three or more points are a books nightmare as the probability of getting ‘middled’ increase proportionally to the line movement. The early bettors, who got the low price can then ‘buy back’ the game at the higher price and have to pay only the ‘vig’ if the game does not get ‘middled.’

Large players can bet early and make the line move and this in turn attracts the smaller bettors, who get caught up the line action. Once the public gets ‘all in’ then the large players, or sharks as they are commonly called, can buy back the game or a portion of the game and still have a decent size bet if their initial play wins or the big return if the game gets ‘middled’. 

Team Rankings

San Jose State is coming off a 1-2 2010 seasons and went 0-8 in the WAC. They had seven offensive starters return, but had a significant battle for the quarterback position. The coaches decided on Senior Matt Faulkner, who is a bit undersized at 6-1 204 pounds, but has above average arm strength. 

He did well against BYU in their last game hitting 25 of 35 pass attempts for 71.4% completions and 255 yards. For the season he has connected on 98 of 156 pass attempts fop 63% completions and a decent 126.4 quarterback passer rating. 

Overall, San Jose State ranks 79th gaining 213.5 passing yards, 71st gaining 134.0 rushing yards per game, 99th scoring just 20.3 points-per-game, and 92nd allowing 30.8 points-per game. The inability of the offense to stay on the field and give the defense rest is a large reason why the defense has been shredded in games this season. 

Hawaii is off to another strong offensive season with a pass happy offensive scheme. Their quarterback Moniz already has 15 touchdowns and has connected on 135 of his 209 pass attempts for 1578 yards. He, like his counterpart is a bit undersized at 6-1 and 200 pounds, but has above average arm strength. His quarterback rating for the season is 150.7 and a bit weaker in road tilts at 138.3. 

Hawaii ranks eight gaining 343.4 yards passing, 110th gaining just 87.0 rushing yards per game, 25th averaging 37.2 points per game, and 69th allowing 27.4 points per game. 

In summary, I think the line could drift to Hawaii favored by six points where strong betting support will arise. The ‘common sense’ bet is to make Hawaii at this point, but we will be back later tomorrow with a look at the total play opportunities for this game to give you more options for your college football picks Friday night.

Share your plays and thoughts on this game in my Hawaii vs. San Jose State thread in SBR's forum.

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