Ole Miss,Florida,College Football Pick
9/22/2007 12:30:00 PM
Don't fool yourself; Ole Miss isn't going to win this game. But with the Florida Gators in letdown mode, the Rebels are great bets to cover the 23-point spread.
Let’s take a look at a very intriguing play that has been graded as a Three Star Live Major Dog by the Ai Simulator.
Florida had a huge win at home versus Tennessee, a Five Star Monster Loss by the way, and now Florida takes on Mississippi with the line opening at 23 and quickly moving to 21 points. Let’s first take a look at a supporting system that has hit 82% ATS going 27-6 since 202. Play against a road team that is an excellent rushing team averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in two straight games. Clearly you could call this a let-down system knowing that the play against opponent dominated the LOS in their last two games. What is most impressive is that 20 of these games covered the spread by seven or more points.
Here is another system that I like just as much and has gone 76-34 ATS since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 14½ or more points in conference games, with eight or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Looking at the matchups I think Mississippi will be able to score points on the Florida defense, but they will have to gain 75 or more rushing yards to do so.
Here are two supporting angles as well that show this game could be far closer than anyone would imagine right now. Ole Miss is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after two consecutive games where they forced no more than one turnover since 1992. Florida is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road favorite over the last three seasons.
Last, but certainly not least, is that the AiS shows a 75% probability that Mississippi will lose this game by 21 or fewer points. This is a SEC game and anything can and will happen in this conference.
Free Pick: Mississippi +23 (-105)