The Oregon State Beavers are enjoying an immensely successful season in 2012, but they remember when their 2010 season took a disastrous turn in Seattle on a late October night. How do we think this Seattle show will play out?
Betting: Oregon State vs. Washington Picks
A shaky second-half
performance led to a stomach-punch overtime loss at Washington against the
Huskies. Oregon State never really recovered from that loss, missing out on a
bowl game and suffering a crisis of confidence that spilled into the 2011
campaign. Oregon State has finally rebounded from that loss to Washington two
years ago, but now, the Beavers – who will make a bowl game in 2012 – must go
back to Seattle to try to get things right.
Most offshore book odds have them as a 4.5-point road
favorite for this contest.
The Beavers can win because:
Their opponent just doesn't have many offensive weapons.
Washington owned a formidable offense in 2011 but the Huskies have been ravaged
by the loss of running back Chris Polk to the NFL plus several injuries to
Quarterback Keith Price has not been surrounded by the same
level of talent he enjoyed last season when the Huskies posted 56 points in the
Alamo Bowl against Baylor and accumulated big numbers in several other
contests. Price has been lost without other game-breakers in the UW huddle. He
has been wayward on a lot more throws, tentative on a lot more decisions,
imprecise on so many more reads of opposing defenses. Oregon State is well-schooled on defense and should be able to bait Price into committing two
or three turnovers.
As long as the Beavers can do this, they should be able
to get the field position and situational leverage they'll need to win this
The Huskies can win because:
They're playing a
team that has been very spotty and uneven on offense at certain points in the
2012 season. Oregon State quarterback Cody Vaz, the backup to Sean Mannion, did
not play very well last week against Utah. Oregon State accumulated just 227
total yards and only 53 on the ground. The Beavers needed gifts from Utah to
score 14 of their 21 points. One of the most telling stats is the fact that Oregon
State needed a grand total of just 26 yards to score two of its three
As long as
Washington doesn't gift Oregon State with free points, its defense can smother
OSU and gain a close win for the Huskies.
Outlook & NCAA Football Betting Prediction:
Washington will be waiting to spring the ambush and
Oregon State played a very wobbly game last weekend against Utah. The Beavers
might be the unbeaten team in this matchup while Washington carries a 3-4 record
into this contest but it could easily turn out to be that the Huskies, not the
Beavers, will have the psychological edge when this game starts. In a certain
sense, Oregon State will be the team that is trying to shed some demons and get
rid of a mental baggage.
It's quite possible that Oregon State will win big but
the feeling here is that Washington will minimize mistakes, create a
defense-first game and dig out a 17-13 triumph in an upset. The Huskies will be
confident for this game while Oregon State will feel the pressure of being
undefeated. For this reason, I am adding the Huskies to my college football picks.
Picks: Washington +4.5