Boise State looks to continue its decade long domination of Fresno State when the two teams meet Friday night at Bulldog Stadium in Fresno. I have already provided a detailed preview, but see where I am going to lay my money tonight.
Sportsbooks opened with undefeated Boise State as -19.5 point favorites over
Fresno State (2-3 SU & ATS) but the number has risen and currently sits at -21 at most college football betting sites.
In our series on the Broncos and
Bulldogs clash this week, I noted how the sportsbooks have made a killing on ‘public
perception’. In this case the perception being that Boise State does
nothing but go up and down the field scoring at will, but that hasn’t been the
case this year. The past two weeks the Broncos have been favored by 27.5
against Nevada and Tulsa and although they won by 20 points on both
occasions they missed the cover each time by 7.5 points. This is a good Boise
State team but not the ‘cover’ machine they’ve been in recent years.
Boise State’s offense offers the best of both worlds--a top notch
passer in Kellen Moore and a better than advertised running back in Doug Martin.
Moore has thrown for 1137 yards this season but was held to a
season low 142 against the Wolfpack. The senior signal caller has 14 touchdown
passes, four interceptions and a completion rate of 73.1 percent. Martin has
been a dual threat for the Broncos. He’s coming off a 126 yard rushing effort
against Nevada that upped his season total to 328 yards. He also has 14
receptions and five combined touchdowns.
Overall BSU’s offense is ranked 31st in total
offense at 446.8 YPG and 28th in points per game (36.5 PPG).
Again these are spectacular numbers for most teams but are down when compared
to past Bronco squads.
Fresno State offense vs. Boise State defense
Fresno State needs a big night from QB Derek Carr if they’re going
to be able to upset the college football odds that are stacked against them. Carr has thrown for 1,291 yards and 10
touchdowns this year with four picks and the more effective he is the easier
things will be for Robbie Rouse who has rambled for 600 yards and four TD’s
He leads the nation with 133 carries for an average of 26.6 per
game. Talk about a workhorse, the 5-7, 185-pound Rouse has all but eight
carries by any Bulldogs running backs this season. He’ll have his work cut out
for him against a Boise State team that is 19th in total defense and
36th in the country in defending the run.
One year ago Boise State demolished Fresno State 51-0 as Moore
completed 27 of 38 passes, for 333 yards and four touchdowns. The Broncos
rolled up 516 total yards including 125 yards rushing. The Bulldogs managed
just nine first downs and 125 total yards. Quarterback Ryan Colburn was sacked
four times and the Bulldogs were held to 1 for 12 on third-down chances. It
marked the third consecutive year that Boise State scored 51 or more points
One sided series
Boise State has won the last four games in the series and is 9-1
both SU & ATS with the ‘under’ hitting at a 5-4 clip with one push. Over
that stretch, the Broncos have outscored the Bulldogs by an average of
41.5-19.7 which is a margin of just under 22 points per game.
Fresno State is 1-4 SU & ATS at home against Boise State
dating back to 2001.
Harvey’s Take: The Bulldogs will give the Broncos a steady dose of the run game
in hopes of softening them up for a play action pass and hope that Carr can
deliver. I’ve got Boise State winning and Fresno State covering. This year
that’s the best we can hope for when it comes to betting the Broncos.
This is just one of the games that the SBR staff is keeping a special eye on eye on this week. There’s a Boise State vs. Fresno State thread in the College Football sub forum where we’ll keep you current with any breaking news.
You’re invited to join in the discussion and let us know if you’ll be backing the Broncos or taking a true home ‘Bulldog’