Boise State looks to continue its decade long domination of Fresno State when the two teams meet Friday night at Bulldog Stadium in Fresno. I have already provided a detailed preview, but see where I am going to lay my money tonight.

Sportsbooks opened with undefeated Boise State as -19.5 point favorites over Fresno State (2-3 SU & ATS) but the number has risen and currently sits at -21 at most college football betting sites.

Boise StateIn our series on the Broncos and Bulldogs clash this week, I noted how the sportsbooks have made a killing on ‘public perception’. In this case the perception being that Boise State does nothing but go up and down the field scoring at will, but that hasn’t been the case this year. The past two weeks the Broncos have been favored by 27.5 against Nevada and Tulsa and although they won by 20 points on both occasions they missed the cover each time by 7.5 points. This is a good Boise State team but not the ‘cover’ machine they’ve been in recent years.

Boise balance

Boise State’s offense offers the best of both worlds--a top notch passer in Kellen Moore and a better than advertised running back in Doug Martin.

Moore has thrown for 1137 yards this season but was held to a season low 142 against the Wolfpack. The senior signal caller has 14 touchdown passes, four interceptions and a completion rate of 73.1 percent. Martin has been a dual threat for the Broncos. He’s coming off a 126 yard rushing effort against Nevada that upped his season total to 328 yards. He also has 14 receptions and five combined touchdowns.

Overall BSU’s offense is ranked 31st in total offense at 446.8 YPG and 28th in points per game (36.5 PPG). Again these are spectacular numbers for most teams but are down when compared to past Bronco squads.

Fresno State offense vs. Boise State defense

Fresno State needs a big night from QB Derek Carr if they’re going to be able to upset the college football odds that are stacked against them. Carr has thrown for 1,291 yards and 10 touchdowns this year with four picks and the more effective he is the easier things will be for Robbie Rouse who has rambled for 600 yards and four TD’s this season.

Derek Carr

He leads the nation with 133 carries for an average of 26.6 per game. Talk about a workhorse, the 5-7, 185-pound Rouse has all but eight carries by any Bulldogs running backs this season. He’ll have his work cut out for him against a Boise State team that is 19th in total defense and 36th in the country in defending the run.

Revenge game

One year ago Boise State demolished Fresno State 51-0 as Moore completed 27 of 38 passes, for 333 yards and four touchdowns. The Broncos rolled up 516 total yards including 125 yards rushing. The Bulldogs managed just nine first downs and 125 total yards. Quarterback Ryan Colburn was sacked four times and the Bulldogs were held to 1 for 12 on third-down chances. It marked the third consecutive year that Boise State scored 51 or more points against Fresno.

One sided series

Boise State has won the last four games in the series and is 9-1 both SU & ATS with the ‘under’ hitting at a 5-4 clip with one push. Over that stretch, the Broncos have outscored the Bulldogs by an average of 41.5-19.7 which is a margin of just under 22 points per game.

Fresno State is 1-4 SU & ATS at home against Boise State dating back to 2001.

Harvey’s Take: The Bulldogs will give the Broncos a steady dose of the run game in hopes of softening them up for a play action pass and hope that Carr can deliver. I’ve got Boise State winning and Fresno State covering. This year that’s the best we can hope for when it comes to betting the Broncos.

This is just one of the games that the SBR staff is keeping a special eye on eye on this week. There’s a Boise State vs. Fresno State thread in the College Football sub forum where we’ll keep you current with any breaking news.

You’re invited to join in the discussion and let us know if you’ll be backing the Broncos or taking a true home ‘Bulldog’ this week.