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10/16/2012 4:07:00 PM
How will David Ash and the Longhorns respond after dropping their second straight? They'll be at home against another potent offensive team in Baylor and currently the college football odds are in their favor. Which way do we go on this one?
Baylor vs. Texas
As of now, Texas (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) is favored by
double-digit odds at home, giving away 10.5 points to Baylor (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS).
Between them, the Longhorns and Bears are averaging over 90
points a game this season. That's why we see an O/U of 80.5 at the college
football betting sites.
The OVER has gone 4-2 in Texas games this season and a
perfect 4-0 in Baylor's four publicly-lined match-ups.
The Bears own the nation's best passing attack, as they're averaging
398.4 passing yards per game.
Nick Florence has taken over from Robert Griffin III and,
although he can't make the same plays RGIII did with his legs, he looks the
part throwing the ball. Florence already had 1874 passing yards and 18
touchdowns in five games.
Last week was a disaster for Florence however. He had four
interceptions and was a big reason Baylor got smacked around (49-21) by TCU.
Baylor's offensive prowess is well-documented – the Bears
have been good for a staggering 47.6 points per game – but they've been god
awful defensively, allowing 41.6 PPG and owning the #120 Total Defense in the
This weekend's game is just another difficult test in the
middle of a scary-looking schedule for the Bears. They've played West Virginia
and TCU over the last two weeks and now will play Texas, Iowa State, Oklahoma,
Kansas State and Texas Tech over the next month and a half.
We have to say we were rather disappointed with the
Longhorns' (lack of) effort in the Red River Rivalry game last weekend.
Losing by 42 points is never fun, especially when it's to
one of your biggest rivals.
Texas had no answer for Oklahoma's running game, which
racked up 343 yards. The Sooners had 677 yards of total offense, while the
Longhorns were held under 300.
David Ash was humbled in a big way by the ultra-athletic
Sooners defense. He was only 13-of-29 for 113 yards and was picked off twice
without throwing a touchdown pass in the defeat. Case McCoy came in during
garbage time and was effective (5/8 for 102 yards and two TDs) but he had the
luxury of facing off against backups.
However you spin it; that was one ugly loss for the
Longhorns. They'll be more than happy to return back home to Royal-Texas
Memorial Stadium as they hope their fans can make a difference and spark them
into putting forth better efforts on both sides of the ball.
College Football Pick
Baylor won this matchup 48-24 last season, but things were a
lot different back then.
RGIII was in charge of the Bears and he accounted for four
touchdowns, while McCoy was quarterbacking the Longhorns and was picked off
Ash is the main man under center now, and even though he
struggled last week against Oklahoma, he's bound to bounce back against a
vastly inferior Baylor defense. Texas is hardly dominant defensively, but they
look like Alabama when compared to Baylor.
The Bears cannot stop anybody and that will be proven true
this Saturday. Back the Longhorns to finally get back on the winning side of
things and cover this double-digit spread at home.
ATS Pick: Texas Longhorns -10.5
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